Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Election night swung repeatedly within its 3319.00-3432.00 113-point range. Wednesday's open launched uplegs into the 3480.00 noon hour high. The balance of the session trended back down relentlessly, testing the post-open rally's 3536.00 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement down to 3431.50. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Friendly BOE headlines seem to be priming an optimistic sentiment for this afternoon's FOMC events. Bias signals had contained early ranging between 3428.00-3447.50. That broke higher to hover under yesterday's highs through midnight. And that broke higher to rally through Europe's opens, extending above yesterday's 3480.00 high to test 3508.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) With no requirement to retest Wednesday's 3480.00 high, its retest was likely to probe higher instead of holding. Already doing this overnight is indicating the open to gap up, allowing room for a pullback to test lower prior highs at 3472.50. But sellers controlled the PM Traction setup, so the burden of proof is on buyers to extend up through the first 15 minutes, and not just to hold the overnight high's retest. A deeper pullback or reaction down would have room to the Wednesday's gap-to-gap around 3384.25. Any lower would start to signal a deeper downleg underway. Extending the recovery would next target 3517.75 and 3546.00, if not also another 10-11 points higher. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3466.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3460.25 bias-up target to renew the bias-up signal.

While also isolating the grace period's buyers. The pre-open pullback to 3485.00 went the way as this week's other pre-open pullbacks, by rallying through the open. Sellers not retaking control would make the 3508.50 overnight high's retest likely. And not rejecting its test would next target 3517.75. All of which was tested up to 3522.50. Temporarily. Then its reaction probed back under the 3511.00 10:15 print through 10:30. This isolates the interim strength. And it usually defines a meaningful price extreme. Reversing down is possible. There's plenty of room just to correct the overnight rally, or to retest yesterday's lower prior highs down to 3472.50, or deeper. Retracing recent ground is always likelier ahead of FOMC events, because it's easier than continuing to probe fresh extremes. But flat or flat-to-higher is also possible until then, too. Extending higher anyway, or this afternoon, would next target 3546.00. I'll update any remaining pullback potential before this afternoon gets underway.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3514.00 signal would target 3527.75. BIAS-DOWN: under 3495.00 signal would target 3482.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3521.00 3514.00 ...would target 3534.75 3527.75 Bias-down: under 3501.75 3495.00 ...would target 3489.25 3482.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Waiting for FOMC. The open's rally up to 3522.50 had been rejected by isolating the grace period's portion of the upleg. Ranging sideways ended when the bias environment began lapsing. Breaking lower retested the open down to 3489.00. Trending beyond the open's range is uncommon ahead of afternoon FOMC events. Fluctuating within the range is easier than probing new territory. The noon hour low has bounced back up to 3512.50, testing the 3511.00 level that had isolated the open's excess buying pressure. Reaction to the FOMC policy statement can persist almost until the Fed Chair Q&A that starts at the bottom of the hour. The no-bias signal has no relevance as volatility increases, although bias parameter levels are always influential.

Gapping up again for the fourth consecutive session also trended up through the open for the fourth consecutive session, too. The rally's next higher target at 3517.75 was tested up to 3522.50, where optimism reached its extreme. The upleg's 10:15-10:30 portion was isolated -- retraced to where it was entered at 3511.00. Exiting the bias environment began retracing the 3489.00 opening low. Rallying out of the noon hour had attacked the morning high to within 1 point when its bias environment lapsed. Remarkably muted price action for being an FOMC afternoon was then reversed to attack earlier lows down to 3495.00. Thursday's 4-5 intraday swings each overlapped the same ground, while the open's rally leg contained all of the others. Thursday's subdued FOMC reaction is also remarkable, its behavior being more comparable to having been greeted by multi-session ranging. Even the eventual intraday slide was fully retraced through the close. This sudden lack of malleability probably reflects more the rigidity of 3517.75 resistance, and less a suddenly complacent environment. Resuming the rally Friday would nevertheless next target a retest of October's prior high by 5 points up to 3546.00. Fulfilling its test earlier in the day would leave more time for a more significant intraday reversal down. Otherwise, the path higher might require first refueling from lower prior highs at 3470.50-3472.00 or 3456.00. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3518.50 signal would target 3527.75. BIAS-DOWN: under 3498.50 signal would target 3489.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3525.50 3518.50 ...would target 3534.75 3527.75 Bias-down: under 3505.25 3498.50 ...would target 3495.25 3489.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE