Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Ranging sideways overnight between Thursday's 3088.00-3097.00 bias signals persisted through the morning bias environment. It began by holding a post-open test of the 3088.00 bias-down signal which put into play an offsetting test of its 3097.00 bias-up signal. The morning's high only filled the gap back up to Wednesday's 3095.50 close. Probing under the overnight range down to 3081.50 found strong-handed buyers to sponsor a move to fresh highs. Along the way they even absorbed a China trade headline's reaction back down to 3083.00. Fulfilling the morning's objective up to 3098.00 left no higher objective outstanding. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Narrow flat-to-higher ranging suddenly surged to 3109.50 on another China trade headline. Ranging sideways included a brief probe up to 3111.50, but the pattern already contained complexity that qualified it as a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring intraday retest. Dipping into Europe's opens and then again later has retraced down to 3102.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Fulfilling Thursday morning's upside objective at the close had left Friday's session without any requirements to guide it. But Thursday had formed "ineffectual pessimism," ranging entirely in negative territory while rejecting 1-2 intraday selloffs. That's typically rewarded by retracing the selloffs' origin, which was already done Thursday, but it at least puts the burden of proof on sellers. And now having probed higher overnight, an Isolation setup could reverse momentum down by opening under the earlier Globex low at 3095.50. Otherwise, the pattern is vulnerable to trending up into the weekend. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3103.00 would be likely to trigger the 3101.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3099.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Overnight range still holding. Globex's 12-point surge to the 3109.25 bias-up target had ultimately ranged sideways through the balance of the night. An interim dip to 3102.50-3103.50 was recovered to gap up to within 1 tick of the 3111.50 "new Globex trend extreme." Its requirement for intraday retest was effectively neutralized. The first half-hour then dropped back down to attack the pre-open lows, holding safely above the 3101.00 bias-up signal. Triggering it put into play a retest of the 3109.25 bias-up target, which is now done. So long as sellers don't retake control, further upside would next target a retest of the 3111.00 opening print, and fresh highs would target the 3114.00 area. Meanwhile, note that the open's gap up above all prior highs would require being tested from below in case of another downleg. And expiration sessions producing a fresh trend extreme tend to be exceeded later.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3117.00 3116.25 ...would target 3122.00 3121.25 Bias-down: under 3109.50 3109.00 ...would target 3103.50 3103.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Friday noon hour new highs. Recovering the open's attack on 3103.00 was likely at least to retest the 3111.00 open, but likelier to probe fresh highs in the 3114.00 area. All of which was fulfilled this morning. The high was even being retested up to 3115.50 as the bias environment began lapsing. And it held. The target held, but two hours since then have only ranged narrowly sideways down to 3112.00. This afternoon's no-bias triggered, without even touching the bias-up signal. In addition to expiration's influences, two days of impending illiquidity create "Friday Factors" that are different from other weekdays. The basis for one of its unique setups is forming: - exiting the bias environment - above the noon hour's high - on a trending session - in the trend's direction These conditions are vulnerable* to extending the trend into the close. (*Vulnerable, but not required, and not required to extend at any particular slope or to any degree.) Even without being a trending session, exiting the bias environment UNDER the noon hour's range but still not breaking lower into the final hour could resume trending into the close. Currently, hovering at the highs is vulnerable to reversing down. An inflection point is being probed. If not successful soon, then flat or flat-to-higher through the close becomes likely.

Friday's open gapped up thanks to an overnight surge that had tested 3109.25 and 3111.50, forming a "new Globex trend extreme" that required intraday retest. The first post-open trending attempt was down from its 3111.00 open to attack overnight lows at 3103.00. Overnight lows held and prior sessions' "lower prior highs" weren't touched. Any bearish scenario for the session would be unlikely to trend down. The balance of the morning reversed up to new highs at 3115.50, Sideways ranging back down to 3111.50 exited the bias environment above the noon hour's high to make the balance of the session vulnerable to extending higher. Which it did, eventually, surging up to 3119.50 through expiration. Similar to two weeks earlier, the new trend extreme close before the weekend makes another new trend high close likely. But not necessarily on Monday. Meanwhile, Friday was a breakout from a multi-session range, which needs confirmation from a second consecutive higher close on Monday. Either way, Friday's high is unlikely to be a trend high -- especially since trend extremes don't usually accompany expiration sessions. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3123.25 3122.50 ...would target 3131.00 3130.25 Bias-down: under 3113.25 3112.75 ...would target 3107.00 3106.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.