Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday night's attack on Monday's 3584.00 low had retraced the afternoon's rally to 3620.00. Recovering it up to 3623.00 before Wednesday's open was retraced again by the afternoon bias environment's exit. That wasn't prevented by ranging sideways through the noon hour and triggering two no-bias signals. And that didn't prevent the last half-hour from breaking sharply lower to 3556.50 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Initially ranging sideways was supported through midnight at the 3556.50 bias-down signal. Eventually working higher attacked the 3574.75 bias-up signal, but its reaction slidinto Europe's opens. Accelerating to fresh lows at 3542.50-3544.00 was consolidated between the 3545.25-3556.50 bias-down parameters. Breaking higher is now probing back into the initial range up to 3563.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Thursday's open won't reject yesterday's late break from its 3591.00-3618.00 range, but a post-open rally can try recovering it. These overnight lows don't require intraday retest. Although yesterday's late break can't be directly attributed to Tuesday's bearish opening setups that had only been ignored through its close, Friday's last-minute surge at even lower levels was never corrected. If last night's dip to 3543.00 wasn't sufficient to already allow this morning to rally, then its next lower opportunity would come from testing 3531.00. A rally won't depend on the headline tenor changing, only on price not reacting down to another headline. It's difficult to discount nebulous headlines that don't correlate directly to financials, and less so for an ongoing stream that generally impacts sentiment like widening Covid cases, Covid restrictions, election confusion, and Congress recessing without Covid relief. Such headlines are unlikely to suddenly stop en masse, so resuming the rally may be wholly dependent on expiration's influence. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3553.50 would likely trigger the 3556.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 3560.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

But no-bias trending is higher. Opening at the 3556.50 bias-down signal ruled out any immediate recovery, which allowed the decline to resume. Which it sort of did, immediately collapsing to touch the 3542.25 overnight low. Its reaction up to 3565.00 was retraced enough and in time to trigger a late bias-down. But extending down to only 3548.00 stopped short of retesting the 3545.25 bias-down target. And already another surge is probing fresh post-open highs up to 3567.50. Probing above the bias-down signal in a bias-down environment is a version of no-bias trending that requires retracing 3556.50. Its eventual retrace is required if still being probed when the bias window is lapsing. Back under 3561.00 (now being tested) would start to signal the retrace underway, probably to test the 3545.25 bias-down target, perhaps even to extend the decline to 3531.00. Meanwhile, expiration's influence might exacerbate the Trump team's scheduled noon press conference.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3570.50 signal would target 3584.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3553.50 signal would target 3543.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3573.75 3570.50 ...would target 3587.50 3584.25 Bias-down: under 3556.50 3553.50 ...would target 3546.00 3543.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Are sellers done? Price action continues fluctuating choppily but narrowly around yesterday's 3563.50 close. This afternoon's no-bias environment is lapsing with its 3570.50 bias-up target being attacked to within 2 points. None of which is enough to bust the potential Flag continuation pattern forming from today's lows. Until the pattern breaks lower, it's not too late for the pattern to become a base that breaks higher. Being on the cusp between timing windows offers an opportunity for either new sponsorship or reinforcements to influence the resolution. An upside breakout has potential to 3590.00 and higher, and lower would next target 3531.00. Expiration's influence tends to become more pronounced during the final hour -- which can leverage a trending effort, or just continue to squelch volatility into today's relatively narrow range.

Wednesday's late collapse to 3556.00 had probed lower overnight to attack 3542.00. Recovering up to 3564.00 was retraced through the open to touch the overnight low. Recovering up to 3564.00 again only ranged sideways through the afternoon bias environment. Rallying through the bias window's exit quickly reached 3581.50, and ranged sideways again through the close up to 3583.00. Ranging narrowly Thursday helped to confirm that Wednesday's late break was not sponsored by strong hands. Its late breakout recovered to test last Friday's 3581.00-3582.00 close. Its immediate recovery Friday would help to further confirm Wednesday's interim breakout was only a temporary detour. The compilation of headlines undermining sentiment has likely been fully discounted. Not that some news items can't worsen some outlooks. But stronger-handed participants are probably already aware of the issues and at least the near-term timing of their developments, or lack thereof. Not that any "good" news is slated or trying to sneak in, but it would likely trigger a very favorable reaction. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3586.50 signal would target 3599.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3570.50 signal would target 3558.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3589.50 3586.50 ...would target 3602.00 3599.00 Bias-down: under 3573.50 3570.50 ...would target 3561.00 3558.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE