Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday's inside day began with a potential air pocket below that was largely probed, but not entirely down to 3093.50, and not back under Wednesday's 3090.75 low. Lower lows remain possible since the open's collapse was retraced almost entirely but not back above Wednesday's 3108.50 close. And not back into positive territory, which the final hour exploited by dropping 9 points down to 3098.50. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) There's no initial drop this time, like after Wednesday's close. Only a small wobble after Thursdays close that attacked 3100.00 and then recovered to probe above the afternoon highs to 3109.50. Ranging narrowly through midnight suddenly surged at Europe's opens up to 3114.50, exactly where yesterday's pre-open surge also peaked. The identical behavior continued as the peak's reaction quickly reversed back down to test 3107.50. This latest instance has already probed lower to where Europe's opens were greeted at 3106.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Like yesterday's opening setups, trending up this morning depends upon gapping up to and/or through 3115.00. Having already attacked it before reversing down sharply yesterday pre-open, there's no bearish reason to revisit it -- especially with the weekend bearing down. Last night's test was early enough to be irrelevant if the open were greeted back down in negative territory. Trending down doesn't require gapping down, and the nearest downside objective would be to probe under the 3091.00-3093.00 lows. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3111.00 would be likely to trigger the 3109.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3106.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Detour down? There was no bearish reason for revisiting Wednesday night's 3114.50 high last night. It was already tested and resisted, so returning to it probably included an intent to break higher. Still, it was visited so far before the open that sellers still had an opportunity to retake control. But they didn't. Its reaction down held a retest of 3106.00 where Europe had opened. Recovering initially ran into a Trump "Q&A" that triggered a lot of volatility. But that eventually recovered to attack 3112.00 pre-open, and also post-open after dipping to test 3107.00. Failing at timely attempts to resolve down make resolving higher likely. But the 3107.00-3112.00 area wasn't attracting strong-handed sponsorship, so they would have to be found lower. Late bias-down eventually triggered under 3109.25, and its offsetting test of the 3099.25 bias-down signal is now being probed down to its room for noise at 3098.00. Not holding this area would next target a probe under this week's 3091.00-3093.00 lows. Meanwhile, back above 3107.25 would start to suggest a rally already underway.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3109.00 3108.25 ...would target 3117.00 3116.25 Bias-down: under 3101.00 3100.25 ...would target 3094.25 3093.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Barely. The opening range absorb selling efforts and held up long enough to make fresh highs likely. But too much time had elapsed, so strong-handed sponsorship needed to be found lower. Then fresh highs could be probed. That continues to be our premise. This morning's late bias-down fell quickly through its 3107.25 to its 3099.25 bias-down signal's test. Room for noise down to 3098.00 was pierced by 1 tick. An immediate 4-point reaction up proved the level's relevance. Its quick retracement down to 3098.50 was recovered even faster, forming the low.

The quick retracement and its recovery also formed a trough. It was preceded by a Running Correction that had been entered AND exited aggressively (see chart image). Those are the first 4 of a 5-stage pattern -- the 5th stage is the recovery.

Stage-5 usually retraces to the Running Correction's upper-quadrant, which was 3103.50-3103.75 for today's setup. Usually the origin of the first aggressive drop is also retraced, which was 3109.25 today. In fact, the stage-5 recovery has touched 3109.25.

Now this afternoon has triggered bias-up. Barely, literally by the grace of 1 minute and 1 tick. It wasn't rejected at 1:30, so it need be taken only with a half-grain of salt. Still, fresh highs reflecting more reinforcements would be helpful. This being Friday afternoon, only ranging sideways is possible. So is retracing the recovery. The bias environment's exit should be predictive of either, unless the noon hour's 3104.50 low is already breaking lower.  

It was a circuitous route, but Friday's 3111.75 opening range high was finally probed. By 1 tick. In the final minute. There was no bearish reason for revisiting Wednesday night's 3114.50 high Thursday night, but it was touched. Reactions down to 3105.50 pre-open and down to 3107.00 post-open held up through relevant timing windows. But those same windows failed to extend higher, making a temporary dip likely. So, the morning bias environment's drop through its 3107.00 sell signal to its 3098.00-3099.25 target fulfilled the dip, and the balance of the session rallied relentlessly back up to a last-minute touch of 3112.00. Retesting 3114.50 overnight did suggest its eventual break. That's still likely, and likely to launch a bigger upleg if recovered through the open. Friday afternoon's 3116. bias-up target became "unfinished business," which adds to others already outstanding. There's a possible path down, too, which we'll cover during the Saturday Review bigger picture discussion. We'll also discuss the proprietary 5-stage pattern that called Friday's complete intraday recovery and the Friday afternoon float pattern, plus the China trade headline influence. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3115.25 3114.50 ...would target 3120.25 3119.50 Bias-down: under 3104.00 3103.50 ...would target 3098.25 3097.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.