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Through the prior close... The Turkey-Russia event triggered a gap down Tuesday to 2071.00, which soon extended back down to within 6 ticks of the 2065.50 overnight lows. Despite the seasonal timing that allowed more time to decline, the selling was limited to the morning's bias environment. It was reversed through the noon hour back into positive territory up to 2091.00. The balance of the session ranged sideways back down to 2084.00. Overnight action's new info... A late-afternoon sell signal triggered under 2087.50 had targeted at least 2082.50. Meeting it early overnight held, as did its retest. The second reaction up extended to probe above yesterday's highs to 2092.50. That has dipped back down to test 2088.00. If, then... Yesterday morning's deep pullback was optimistically brief, so it may be too soon for a rally attempt to be credible. Retesting yesterday's lows may be unlikely, but that depth isn't required to remain in corrective mode. The pattern remains vulnerable to spending the day backing-and-filling, trading flat-to-lower, and not trending higher. That said, trending higher from gapping up would get a benefit of the doubt for extending on volume too low to attract counter-trend sponsorship. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2091.00 would be likely to trigger the 2088.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2084.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2088.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2077.00 would be likely to trigger the 2079.75 bias-down signal.

Beware that participation may have begun evaporating. The open's dive down to 2083.25 reacted back up to the 2088.00 open, which is also this morning's bias-up signal. Ranging around it avoided triggering the signal at 10:15. But the grace period at 10:30 was still overlapping the signal. So, this is a noN-bias environment. An offsetting test of the 2079.75 bias-down signal is not in-play. The 2088.00 bias-up signal need not define the range's upper-end. Often, a noN-bias environment does simply range at the bias signal, but that's not required, either. Regardless, I still don't like the upside potential, having failed to gap up above prior highs. But exiting the bias environment above 2088.00 when volume really begins evaporating would be vulnerable to drifting higher through the afternoon, anyway.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2093.75 2090.00 ...would target  2098.50  2096.00 Bias-down: under  2087.00  2084.50 ...would target 2082.00 2079.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Opening dip's recovery hasn't reversed up. The open's slide down to 2082.25 had reacted up to range around the 2088.00 bias-up signal. It didn't trigger, not even late. A surge up to 2090.50  was retraced back down into the range around 2088.00. The morning's vulnerability to trending back down lapsed with the bias environment. Having hovered at session highs until then, the noon hour became vulnerable to drifting higher on evaporating volume.

But the noon hour only ranged narrowly sideways, at or under the morning's high.

So, the shoe is now back on the pendulum, which has swung back toward the other foot. The primary influence continues to be evaporating volume. This range's upper-end continues to hold. Will 2088.00 refuse to let sellers retake control? No trending is required. That said, be careful if short at or into highs, as evaporating volume can be unpredictable. But the balance of the session is now vulnerable to drifting downward.

As much as the Macy's Parade and bowl games on Thursday, Wednesday's narrowly ranging session is a traditional part of Thanksgiving. Friday's vulnerability to drift higher into its early close is also part of that tradition. But the low volume does keep the session vulnerable to reacting negatively to bad news. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwhkwtb

Globex trades through 1:00pm ET on Thanksgiving, and re-opens that evening at 6:00pm ET. Monitor it in the chaRTroom, while helping to test our new webinar software. Let me know of any access issues and I'll resolve them: Omnijoin (by Brother)

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2093.50 2090.00 ...would target  2098.50  2096.00 Bias-down: under  2087.00  2084.50 ...would target 2081.75  2079.25 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.