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Through the prior close... Thursday's volatility was legendary. Wednesday's opening gap down to 2046.50 (basis Mar) quickly signaled a rally above 2049.25. The 2068.25 bias-up target was met and held at 10:15, and later extended momentarily to 2071.75. The rally was unlikely to hold because its origin was too shallow. But its 2065.00 sell signal was extremely productive, probing the open's lows by noon, and extending down through the noon hour to test and retest 2027.00, 45 points off the morning's high. A late bounce to 2042.75 was retraced back into the afternoon's range under 2035.00. Overnight action's new info... The late rally's retracement was recovered and its 2042.75 high held as resistance into Europe's opens. A probe of fresh highs up to 2046.75 never extended, and ranging around yesterday's late high back down to 2038.50 is now breaking lower. If, then... Quarterly expiration is next Friday, so the front-month rolls forward at this morning's open from December to March. Their spread is an 8 point discount, meaning that the pivotal 2048.00 basis Dec is now 2040.00 basis Mar. And the likely objective to retesting yesterday's ~2027.00 lows is 2022.50. Any lower would target 2019.00 and 2014.00 -- all so long as 2040.00 isn't recovered, which could effectively end the decline. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2042.75 would be likely to trigger the 2040.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2037.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Retesting overnight highs. The 2046.50 bias-up target had been met already overnight. Its reaction down had touched 2036.00 pre-open. And then post-open, too.  Its latter test launched a retest of 2046.50 to within 1 tick. The bias-up target's retest also reacted down to 2036.00. But the 2040.75 bias-up signal was overlapped within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period at 10:30. And the grace period triggered "late bias-up." A more thorough test of 2046.50 is likely, probably up to 2048.00. None of which changes the likely retest of yesterday's ~2027.00 low, whose path was always suspect. That attraction can still be neutralized, initially by exiting this morning's bias environment above 2046.50.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2058.00 2048.75 ...would target  2065.00  2055.75 Bias-down: under  2049.25  2040.00 ...would target 2044.25  2035.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning rally's retracement still has a margin of comfort. This morning's 2046.50 bias-up target was put back into play by the late bias-up signal. Its test was likely to visit 2048.00, which it did, on the way to 2054.25. As quickly as the bias signal probed higher, it has taken four times as long to retrace back down to this morning's 2040.75 bias-up signal. And there's no assurance of reversing back down through it. There's still time -- time, and recent volatility -- to retest yesterday's ~2027.00 lows down to 2022.50 and still recover. But closing today under 2040.00 would confirm yesterday's simultaneous break under both it and 2052.00 (2048 and 2060 basis Dec).  Closing today above 2052.00 would end the recent decline.

Was it, or wasn't it? Only its hairdresser knows for sure. Specifically, was Thursday's last-hour 10-point plunge from 2058.50 the exacerbated reaction to a non-event (college campus shooter spotted)? Otherwise, it was rejecting the bias environment exit's breakout above 2052.00 as being false. The alternative to closing above 2052.00 was to close under 2040.00. But 2040.00 held its last-minute test. If the plunge will be reversed, then it will be reversed overnight to gap up Friday above its 2058.50 origin -- forming a "session-long rally" setup. Only the slightest opening weakness would confirm the plunge is extending down. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxykyb

Here's the new OmniJoin version, all configured for us to test tonight. The other two are unavailable until the morning: CLICK HERE.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2055.75 2046.50 ...would target  2062.50 2053.25 Bias-down: under  2048.25  2039.00 ...would target 2042.25  2033.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.