Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Before seasonal holiday bullishness resumes its influence, sellers had a fading opportunity Wednesday to insert a downdraft. Perhaps even to fulfill "unfinished business below" at 2679.00 and 2675.50. Despite triggering the 2688.75 bias-up signal late, and creating "unfinished business above" at its 2693.75 target, a downdraft did begin mid-morning and fell to 2681.50. The position-squaring window popped back up to the afternoon bias environment's 2685.25 high. Meanwhile, the afternoon's bias-down signal had triggered, late, and left unfinished business below at its 2679.00 bias-down target. Overnight action's new info... Surging out of Wednesday's position-squaring window extended to 2686.25 into the futures close. Globex dipped to 2684.00 and then resumed the rally. It has been relentless, albeit shallow, up to 2688.50. That was yesterday's sell signal that had triggered going into the noon hour, and 1 tick above this morning's bias-up signal. If, then... Yesterday's position-squaring window bounce originated too late to be strong-handed, and it was only noise since it peaked at the afternoon bias environment's high. The overnight extension is only noise, so far, for having retraced the last downleg's sell signal. Wednesday's downdraft began in time to be credible ahead of the bullish influences, but it doesn't have unlimited time to fully develop. If sellers can't prevent the bias-up signal from triggering, then Wednesday's 2675.50 unfinished business below could be delayed until next year. Bias-up would likely marginalize sellers for the morning, which would be long enough for seasonal bullishness and quarterly portfolio window dressing influences to take over through tomorrow's early close. The key to one more downdraft is to start it early, which I'll give every benefit of the doubt if bias-up doesn't trigger. Just by not gapping up above Wednesday's highs, fresh lows remain in-play. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2690.50 would be likely to trigger the 2688.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2686.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome it is Thursday time for Thursday morning Market to our don't forget it's a early closed tomorrow so we'll be doing an early market wrap and it's a holiday weekend so there's no Saturday review so it'll be an extended market wrap or where we'll look at the bigger picture and I'll be going into more detail in the Bitcoin anticipation we'll see what happens I'll mention somethinglittle bit of a rally overnight not much just relentless the open initially dipped the open initially dipped after yesterday's very late rally the position scoring window started very late not a positive two virgins down here RS I never got over sold on that last low all noise made it only back to the buy some Byron High at least during the Futures extended a little higher before it became relevant even or inflection point wasn't touched until well into the evening extensionhey I are actually another couple of ticks higher would not only recover that sell signal but also threatened to trigger the bicep signal this morning's bicep 2688 75 so long as bias up doesn't trigger and especially if bias up is rejected by testing it and not triggering it putting into play in offsetting test of the bias down signal 8150 yesterday's low as it happens and then probably lower 279 we're going to leave in place that likely scenario returning to fulfilling and into a seasonally bullish environment the rest of the day which then probably March through the week which margarinegreat significance overnight but yesterday's flat the lower arranging did not confirm Tuesday's almost literal explosion higher above resistance and it is being greeted from a position of strength breakout or break higher but still not from a position of weakness andSouth Korea has stirred the pot overnight basically by indicating there going to be man man dating a non Anonymous trading basically in cryptocurrencies wherever the new year is greeted in each timezone that's going to be each time zone that has a structure which allows delaying the recognition of a game until that year the premise still being that there is a big reaction down coming as soon as sellers can get in there I would prefer to see that come from at the time could make that even more substantial remember .

Immediate drop from bias-up signal's resistance. Pre-open hovering at or around this morning's 2688.25 bias-up signal greeted the open with a blip-up to 2689.00. Its immediate reaction down fell to 2686.00, and then lower to 2683.50. The likelihood for resolving down had suggested an initial short, with a stop (or stop-and-reverse to long) above 2689.50. Breaking under 2686.00 signaled momentum reversing down. And now no-bias has triggered. Holding a test of the bias-up signal has put into play an offsetting test of the 2681.50 bias-down signal. If tested during the bias environment, then 2681.50 should define the window's lower-end. That doesn't preclude it from being probed, perhaps down to the 2679.00 or 2675.50 unfinished business below. Back above 2686.75 would start to signal momentum reversing back up.

CORRECTION: I've been referring to an early close for tomorrow, based on SIFMA's recommendation. But the exchanges are open through regular trading hours. Then, similar to the Christmas weekend break, Globex does not re-open until Monday at 6:00 PM ET.

Meanwhile, we had an interesting review of several Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, of course, and Etherium. But also Litecoin, Ripple and Iota. I will be updating the blog before Tuesday to discuss any relevant price action among them.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2687.50 2688.00 ...would target  2682.00  2692.50 Bias-down: under  2681.75  2682.25 ...would target  2676.25  2676.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Ranging narrowly at the morning's low. The open's slide down to 2683.25 hasn't extended. Not through the balance of the morning bias environment, or the noon hour, or this far into the afternoon bias environment. But neither has the decline recovered, or even bounced meaningfully. Ranging about 1 point either way around the 2684.25 bounce limit has left the decline intact. And this morning's offsetting test of its 2681.50 bias-down signal remains in-play. This morning's drop bottomed too far above yesterday's low -- also 2681.50 -- to be considered optimism. But the narrow ranging is ineffectual, so bearishness from a contrarian perspective is credible. Back above 2687.00 would start to signal momentum reversing up. But potential to fulfill unfinished business below continues to be likelier.

Words could only describe so much. But this picture of S&P futures since Wednesday afternoon's low shows what the weekend's impending illiquidity can do, and what it can prevent.

Reacting down from the overnight rally was entirely legitimate. That is an irrelevant timing window, so it can't gain traction. And it greeted the open at the 2688.25 bias-up signal's resistance. More so, the overnight rally was an extension of Wednesday's late surge. It was only noise, having peaked at resistance of the afternoon bias environment's high.

An entirely legitimate and fully expected reversal down. Pretty productive, too, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2681.50 bias-down signal. (Add it to 2679.00 and 2675.50 outstanding.) But the drop stopped suddenly, and permanently for the day. Weekend illiquidity inhibits sponsorship, and promotes noise. Gapping up Friday above prior highs would be credible for extending higher into year-end -- the same setup as every other day this week. Meanwhile, there briefly visiting the lower objectives is likelier, while being vulnerable to extending down even deeper. As long as we're sharing pictures, here's another. We professionals consider the historical metrics that the rally has gone too far, which ironically adds bricks to the proverbial "Wall of Worry" keeping the rally alive. But, what do we know. Here's an example of how popular the stock market rally has become among those whose ignorance is blissful: The last time I recall seeing a non-analyst's widely publicized opinion is 10 years ago: I've noted on the following long-term EUR / USD chart where Gisele proclaimed that paying her millions of dollars would offend her: That's timing which many market analysts only wish they could match. And I'm not saying Kanye has Gisele's expertise. But it's too cold to measure miniskirts, so we'll have to wonder whether the stock market's chart will have taken a similar turn in several months.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2687.50 2688.00 ...would target  2692.00  2692.50 Bias-down: under  2681.00  2681.50 ...would target  2675.00  2675.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP SIGNALS FAQ NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.