Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday night's probe under intraday lows down to 3715.00 had recovered to attack the 3729.50 overnight high. Thursday's opening probe under Wednesday's low down to 3718.00 also recovered in time to form a bullish opening thrust. The setup signals the session low is in, and often gravitates higher through the session. The afternoon bias environment finally did break higher, sharply, up to 3753.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) 2021 sneaked in quietly Sunday night. Gapping up several points to a new high at 3755.50 immediately began reversing back down to 3738.00. Consolidating back up to the 3750.50 bias-up signal broke higher through Europe's opens to test 3766.00 and then 3773.00. The complexity qualifies as a Globex trend extreme. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) New highs. New highs, and yet, headlines are trying to paint a different sentiment: Further Covid lockdowns in Europe seem imminent. A sizeable Republican contingent intends to contest several of Biden's elector slates Wednesday. Iran is admitting to enhancing its uranium enrichment. Iran may have seized a South Korean tanker. BABA's founder Jack Ma has been missing for 2 months. A slew of downgrades is coming from the street. Yet, new highs. When price action and headlines are at odds with each other, I tend to take price action at its word. Perhaps for now the geopolitical instability is being absorbed first by Bitcoin's weekend blowout, which has reversed down sharply as Precious Metals take its baton hand-off. And after neutralizing all unfinished business into year end, last night's Globex trend extreme now requires being retested intraday, as would the indicated opening gap trend extreme. Discernible uptrending and/or probing above the overnight high through Monday's first 15 minutes would likely trend up through the morning bias window, leveraging the otherwise dubious bullish influence of Thursday's PM traction setup. But first things, first. The overnight rally seems preparing to correct back down, so we'll see whether the intraday crowd uses these new upside attractions to enable backing-and-filling Thursday's late rally, or even deeper. Closing above 3757.00-3758.00 would start putting into play the rally's potential for extending to 3884.00. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Bias-down target already met, and exceeded. The 3773.00 overnight high was already indicating a correction underway at the Market Tour. A temporary correction had room to 3761.00-3764.00 before suggesting something more substantial underway. So, opening at 3758.50 only accelerated the pre-open pullback. And now 3718.50 is being tested. Persistently oversold 3-minute RSI, and 4-minute bounce limit tests, prevented multiple attractive candidates from serving as a low. The 3750.50 bias-up signal, the 3743.00 correction of Thursday's late surge, the 3737.00 bias-down signal. That said, their recoveries through a relevant window like the close would be bullish. Meanwhile, 3-minute RSI remains persistently oversold. And 1-minute RSI is simultaneously oversold, after the opening hour. Its low would become unfinished business if left outstanding. Bounces this morning have room up to the 3737.00 bias-down signal. The decline's momentum otherwise remains intact. Note that the open was essentially a test of the rally's room for noise up to 3757.00-3758.00. Immediately subsequent price action was essentially the rally's room for noise being rejected. Unfinished business above at the overnight high and gap up are the rally's only remnants.

MON P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3282.50 signal would target 3292.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3672.50 signal would target 3660.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3692.00 3682.50 ...would target 3701.50 3692.00 Bias-down: under 3682.00 3672.50 ...would target 3669.75 3660.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Also rejecting the renewed bias-down target. This morning's decline continued encountering candidates for a low. But candidate after candidate melted away while 3-minuute RSI remained persistently oversold. And bounce limits contained the usual attention span  of countertrend sponsorship, repeatedly resolving down to new lows. The 3773.25 overnight high was reversed down to 3652.50. One candidate did hold at 3554.25, the room for noise under the 3660.25 bias-down target. Still oversold RSIs became moot during their noon hour low, and the eventual reaction just touched 3687.00. More significant is the afternoon's two 3660.25 and 3672.50 bias-down parameters were recovered to trigger no-bias. The 3282.50 bias-up signal was still being overlapped within a minute of 1:30. Its recovery would have invalidated the no-bias, so that rallying through it wouldn't be considered no-bias trending. Rallying through it could still extend, especially when the bias window begins lapsing. Otherwise, fresh session lows at this stage would suggest something more substantial underway -- which is unlikely during the same session as a new trend high. Meanwhile, the Boris Johnson press conference is announcing new lockdown measures, which is I think the highest-profile catalyst to this morning's slide. Georgia's Secretary of State has announced a press conference fro 3:00 PM ET, and it looks like Trump will speak this evening. Anxiousness awaiting these events could inhibit more trending either way, which makes upside retracement easier.

Sunday night's new highs tested 3773.00, but already breaking back under 3761.00 pre-open had suggested a deeper post-open pullback underway. And it was amplified by opening at the rally's longstanding room for noise up to 3757.00-3758.00. Its violent rejection tested the 3654.25 lowest calculable pullback candidate at the noon hour's 3652.50 low. The afternoon's bounce tested 3699.00. A likely catalyst for the morning's reversal was news that UK's Boris Johnson would announce new lockdowns in the evening. Which he did, well after the lows had bounced. Lockdown concerns were a focal point during the past two week, but its actual development can be influential. So would the next country's lockdown if one decides to follow. Waiting for that "other shoe to drop" might define the market near-term and inhibit its recovery. But its eventual recovery remains likely, even if only to retest the highs. Sunday night's new highs tested 3773.00 with complexity, so its Globex trend extreme requires intraday retest. Monday's 3758.50 gap above all prior highs requires being filled from below. There's no bullish reason to retest Monday's lows intraday, and its break could put into play 3566.00. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

TUE A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3706.50 signal would target 3719.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3683.75 signal would target 3672.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3716.00 3706.50 ...would target 3729.00 3719.50 Bias-down: under 3693.50 3683.75 ...would target 3681.50 3672.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE