Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Ranging flat-to-higher overnight eked higher pre-open to gap up. A reaction down to Fri's late 3929 high surged back up, and extended sharply higher through the bias window to 3973. Simultaneously overbought RSIs were left outstanding as the balance of the session trended back down to 3910.
Overnight price points : Flat-to-lower ranging has been resisted by yesterday's 3914 cash session close, while momentary probes of the 3901 bias-down signal have held 3898-3899. All until a spike down to 3892 several minutes ago.
Catalysts : Awaiting extension or reversal of Mon's intraday reversal, Powell speaking pre-open.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Overbought RSIs.
Their influences : Simultaneously overbought RSIs at Mon's 3973 high require its eventual retest.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : Mon's closed reversed a lot of interim upside, which is not irrelevant, as seen by probing lower overnight. But delaying the reversal into negative territory under Fri's 3916 cash session until Mon's final hour undermines its relevance. Indeed, Fri's close was being overlapped into Mon's close only 2 points lower. But again, that hasn't prevented probing lower, now testing the room to 3895 where exiting the open any lower would start to suggest something more substantial underway i.e. 3880. Meanwhile, the slide from yesterday's highs and also in the past several minutes may be only defensive posturing ahead of Powell's pre-open appearance, which would become irrelevant if the open were greeted back in positive territory. Upside would be attracted to overbought RSIs at Mon's 3973 high that require its eventual retest, initially to 3977 and potentially through 4000.
Alternative : Exiting the open under 3895 would serve by proxy to reinforce yesterday's sellers that were otherwise weak-handed for having delayed and then held their break into negative territory. That would all but require testing 3880, whose break would then target Dec's lows.
Levels : UP: 3946, 3977, 4008… DOWN: 3892, 3874, 3841.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Flat-to-lower ranging has been resisted by yesterday's 3914 cash session close, while momentary probes of the 3901 bias-down signal have held 3898-3899. All until a spike down to 3892.
New price points : As suspected, Powell's remarks had been thoroughly discounted. Bouncing off of 3892 through the open extended through overnight highs to 3927 and eventually to 3935. But cleanly triggering the 3921 bias-up signal didn't prevent invalidating it by 10:30 on the way back down to 3897. That's testing the 3901 bias-down signal, which wasn't required.
Catalysts : Awaiting extension or reversal of Mon's intraday reversal, Powell speaking pre-open.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-UP INVALIDATED... Overbought RSIs.
Their influences : Bias-up's signal was rejected through 10:30 to invalidate what had been signaled cleanly at 10:15. Bias parameters can provide support or resistance, but don't require any specific attraction or resolution... Simultaneously overbought RSIs at Mon's 3973 high require its eventual retest.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : A relief rally was likely if Powell didn't offer anything more pessimistic than what had been discounted already. Fulfilling that relief rally could be an organic catalyst for the subsequent dip. But that wouldn't be bullish until recovered entirely. Meanwhile, not only will buyers have failed to attract reinforcements, but their cleanly triggered bias-up was invalidated. Exiting the open under 3895 would have been bearish, and now entering the noon hour under it can still reinforce sellers to target 3880, whose break would then target Dec's lows.
Alternative : Recovering the 3921 bias-up signal would help to isolate the interim sellers, still needing confirmation from fresh post-open highs above 3935 int the noon hour. Further upside would be attracted to overbought RSIs at Mon's 3973 high that require its eventual retest, initially to 3977 and potentially through 4000.
Levels : UP: 3946, 3977, 4008… DOWN: 3892, 3874, 3841.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

TUE P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 3926, targeting 3938.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3908, targeting 3894.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.