Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday's open was greeted by relentless overnight trending. Its gap up above 3295.00-3298.00 prior highs quickly pierced Wednesday night's 3308.00 high while trending up through the open. The anchor it established prevented counter-trend sponsorship from taking control. Ranging choppily sideways through the morning and even narrower through the noon hour still could have included a corrective dip, but didn't. The bias environment exit and proxy window gained traction as the final hour surged to new highs at 3318.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Only a brief consolidation preceded a 7-point spike up to 3323.25. It was retraced almost entirely down to 3316.75, and consolidated narrowly at the 3319.50 bias-up signal. An actual rally developed into and out of Europe's opens, and has extended to within 1 tick of the bias-up target at 3327.00. The early spike up, not retracing it entirely, and the eventual complexity of eventually the rally, all qualify 3327.00 as a "new Globex trend extreme." If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday's Market Wrap noted the two consecutive afternoon short-squeezes and their suggestion that the rally was entering a blow-off phase. Wednesday's pivot reversal had identified thin air, and without a correction, the only path higher must be aggressive. The string of consecutive higher highs is approaching another Up/Down-crash setup, which a weak expiration-day open could leverage into at least a morning slide. But trend extremes aren't normally associated 3-day holiday weekends. Or expirations. The overnight highs have created a lot of room to expend selling pressure before it could even threaten to damage the rally's chart. I'm reluctant to sell opening weakness before retesting the overnight high, but I'll still consider it since there's enough room for just a normal retracement down to lower prior highs, and Friday Factors might held. Their influence cuts either way, so early fresh highs would be entirely credible for extending up sharply into the weekend. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3321.00 would be likely to trigger the 3319.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3318.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

With conflicting signals. Another surge overnight produced the eventual new Globex trend extreme" at 3328.75, requiring eventual intraday retest. This morning's 3319.50 bias-up triggered, putting into play a test of its 3327.25 bias-up target. Meanwhile, the last overnight surge also maintained the pattern of relentless overnight trending, looking for reinforcements post-open. But the open's 15 minutes of volatility trended down, opening the door to trending back down. The door is open to another deeper pullback intraday, But a downside attempt would be more reliable after neutralizing upside attractions. A blow-off day remains possible, and the burden of proof is still on sellers. But this pattern can react down too deeply from fresh highs and trigger a correction.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3327.75 3328.00 ...would target 3332.75 3333.00 Bias-down: under 3319.75 3320.00 ...would target 3314.00 3314.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Expiration stranglehold. Regardless of gapping up, the opening 15 minutes of volatility trended down. Keeping the door open to a deeper retracement wasn't exploited. This morning's bias environment ranged choppily, resisted by its 3325.25 open in between attacks and probes of 3321.50. The deepest probe down to 3319.00 was recovered back above 3321.50 by noon. That was enough to make fresh high likely, back above both the 3326.50 post-open high and also the 3328.75 overnight high.

So far, the 3326.50 post-open high has been touched again. Its reaction attacked 3326.50 to within 1 tick. This pessimism is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, and still makes fresh highs likely. Probing the afternoon no-bias environment's 3328.00 bias-up signal would require being retraced.

That recovery should have been more aggressive and relentless than it has been. Perhaps that's because of today's expiration influence. But a series of intraday higher highs and higher lows remains intact, so at least another new high remains likely.

Apparently, overnight strength priced the rally at unattractive levels before Friday's expiration. But it didn't stretch the rubber band enough to snap back down, which was unlikely anyway. Retracing the 3328.75 overnight high still gapped up to 3325.25. The retracement extended through the open down to 3320.00. That was still above Thursday's late 3318.00 high. As was the morning's later low at 3319.00. A series of false starts finally rewarded buyers for absorbing the post-open weakness, but not until Friday's last 10 minutes. Even then, surging above the 3326.50 post-open high up to 3330.50 was reversed back down to 3323.25 through the close. If Tuesday and Wednesday were a multi-session range, then Thursday was a breakout and Friday was its confirmation. Despite Friday's gap up and very late probe of fresh highs, the session didn't trend. Non-trending confirmation sessions tend to be followed by a pullback day. An immediate pullback isn't required, but an eventual higher close is required regardless. A new trend high close on a Friday also requires an eventual higher close. Trend extremes don't occur into expirations or three-day holiday weekends. So, an immediate pullback would very likely be only a temporary correction, with the rally's next higher objective at 3355.00 still outstanding. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND. CHARTROOM RE-OPENS 6 ET SUNDAY.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3332.00 3332.25 ...would target 3337.75 3338.00 Bias-down: under 3322.50 3322.75 ...would target 3316.00 3316.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.