Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Trending down relentlessly overnight often finds no reinforcements at the intraday open, but not Monday. Perhaps thanks to a last-minute 10-point collapse triggered by NVDA's warning, and already weak overnight greeted Monday's open down 25 points. That was extended to within 6 ticks of 2625.00, which was later probed into noon down to 2622.00. Reacting up through the close ended at 2643.00 while still overlapping the 2638.50 opening print -- like Friday, Monday's close overlapped the open. No new unfinished business was created. Overnight action's new info... An early dip has been recovered entirely, indicating almost a flat open. Globex had immediately begun retracing Monday afternoon's bounce, by much more than 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} down to 2628.50. Firming into midnight then surged to 2640.00, but retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back down to 2632.00 through Europe's opens. One more high was recovered back to unchanged at 2642.75, not indicating either a gap up or down. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Almost any overnight weakness was likely to resume the decline through 2625.00. Weakness through Tuesday's open would get that benefit of the doubt, too. And there's still no bullish reason to revisit 2625.00, whose probe through a relevant window should find an air pocket likely targeting 2605.00. Perhaps even deeper to compensate for the delay in breaking under 2625.00. Rallying first would have room up to 2645.00-2647.00 before suggesting a bigger detour underway. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2635.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2633.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2640.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2645.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Pre-open recovery finds NQ sympathy. Not even minutes after sending out this morning's pre-open Market Tour, a couple of earnings warnings and misses hit the tape. But not the market, which ticked higher, retesting yesterday's 2642.75 cash session close. Higher highs were likely, and eventually touched 2647.50.

Pulling back to 2640.00 through the open was recovered into a congestion at even higher highs up to 2650.00. That didn't prevent an even deeper drop to 2638.25. The 2645.00 bias-up signal held its test to trigger no-bias.

And then it didn't. Although too late to trigger, a surge through 10:30 recovered 2645.00 in time to invalidate the bias signal. Neither bias signal is required to contain price action, the bias-up target isn't in-play, and an offsetting test of the bias-down signal isn't required.

But an offsetting test of the 2633.00 bias-down signal is now being probed down to 2629.50. That's attacking the overnight low, which was a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of yesterday's intraday range. The turnabout is probably in sympathy with NQ's which have plunged under yesterday's lows. ES rejected two post-open dips which normally suggests they be rewarded by another fresh high. That's not required, but neither sponsorship is entirely credible this morning for maintaining control. Exiting the bias environment in rally mode would be bullish for a bigger bounce, but sellers get a benefit of the doubt otherwise.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2642.00 2640.75 ...would target 2650.50 2649.25 Bias-down: under 2633.50 2632.00 ...would target 2625.75 2624.25 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bouncing back into resistance. Recovering from this morning's 2628.50 low extended to 2643.50 as the noon hour began. Its reaction down was contained to 2637.50. When this afternoon's trending mattered most, price action was fluctuating around yesterday's close / today's open of 2642.75. And testing this afternoon's 2640.75 bias-up signal at both 1:20 and 1:30 has triggered noN-bias. Not a bias-up targeting this morning's highs, but no requirement not to try. And nothing preventing another downdraft. Back above 2642.50 would start to signal a rally attempt underway. Back under 2632.50 would instead signal another downdraft underway targeting a retest of the low's oversold RSIs. If extended to 2625.00, then collapsing through an air pocket below would be likely. Meanwhile, post-close earnings due from AAPL may inhibit attempts at either.

Tuesday's flat open at 2642.75 eventually probed up to 2650.00, then reversed down to 2638.25. The reversal came in time to avoid triggering bias-up, but then a surge came in time to invalidate the no-bias. The no-bias objective was fulfilled anyway, as yet another reversal probed attacked overnight lows to within 3 ticks at 2629.25. And that was it for Tuesday's trending. An otherwise invalidated signal, nevertheless fulfilled. No other indications of sponsorship developed, and the balance of the session ranged choppily to barely probe positive territory. Perhaps inhibited ahead of AAPL's post-open earnings. An actual probe above Tuesday morning's highs wouldn't be surprising, as described during the Market Tour. Oversold RSIs at the low do require an eventual retest. Wednesday afternoon's FOMC events may inhibit the morning's volatility, but should enhance it in the afternoon. UPDATE: AAPL earnings a little better than estimates, certainly not disappointing, and generating an upside reaction (for now). Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2648.25 2647.00 ...would target 2654.25 2653.00 Bias-down: under 2634.50 2633.00 ...would target 2629.25 2627.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.