Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday night's reaction to a coronavirus headline triggered surges from 3288.00 to 3331.00. Reactions down from Wednesday's 3328.00 open dipped deeper and deeper to eventually come within 3 ticks of the pullback's 3311.00 minimum target. Hovering just under 3328.00 through the noon hour and afternoon bias environment preserved the session's pullback qualities. Exiting the afternoon window resumed the rally up to 3336.00 and 3338.00 through the close, retesting the two-week old 3337.50 high. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The Globex open was consolidating when a favorable China trade headline triggered a surge to fresh highs at 3347.00. Extending higher through midnight got to 3357.50, qualifying as a "new Globex trend extreme." Reversing back down finally reached 3349.50 moments ago, still well above intraday highs. Its reaction back up is now attacking 3350.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Wednesday's new high close qualifies to fulfill the outstanding requirement for an eventual higher close. It wasn't optimal, but intraday probing of higher highs is likely -- Wednesday's pullback and hovering made its late breakout likely to persist through the following morning. Anxiousness ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report might inhibit extending higher Thursday afternoon, or even promote an afternoon pullback. The next bigger picture question will be whether Friday will produce a new trend high close to re-entrench the rally. Complexity in the overnight action has already done its part by forming a "new Globex trend extreme" that requires intraday retest, often the same day. Its retest today will be likely so long as the open isn't already negative, or a post-open reversal isn't triggered. Meanwhile, note that the rally's next higher objective at 3355.00 is being tested. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3347.75 would be likely also to exceed the 3343.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 3355.00. Exiting the open t 9:15 above 3340.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 3337.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3333.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

All while holding positive territory. Gapping up to open at the 3343.75 bias-up target suddenly collapsed. Extending down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility attacked the 3332.50 earlier Globex low to within 1 tick. Overnight patterns can influence intraday action during the opening 15 minutes of volatility, so the earlier Globex low's obligatory support reacted up. The reaction extended back through the 3337.75 bias-up signal to touch its 3343.75 bias-up target. Pretty complex price action so far, which suddenly got more complex. Another sudden collapse managed to touch 3337.75 just in time to invoke the grace period. This second collapse's reaction up from 3334.00 touched the bias-up signal at 10:30, not triggering bias-up or no-bias. This is a noN-bias environment, without a required target in-play, and not required to hold any resistance.

Price action has continued its choppiness, and narrowed its range. But sellers aren't very reliable for having failed at least two attempts to reverse into positive negative territory. And yesterday's late breakout still suggests that sellers are marginalized this morning. Which only makes this morning likely to maintain positive territory, but not necessarily to extend the rally. Not yet resuming the rally through the bias window's exit would be vulnerable to reversing down.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3348.00 3346.50 ...would target 3356.00 3354.50 Bias-down: under 3337.50 3336.00 ...would target 3332.25 3330.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Sellers still not retaking control. The first hour's dips under the overnight retracements held positive territory. Their resolution also probed higher and higher above the 3344.00 open. The noon hour's exit got to 3346.50, still well under the 3357.75 overnight high, and still overlapping the 3344.00 open. Exiting this afternoon's bias environment would likely be the last opportunity for sellers to retake control. That vulnerability will persist until rallying today through the 3344.00 open. Meanwhile, flat or flat-to-higher is the likely pattern. And resolving the post-open range above the 3344.00 open would target 3355.00, if not also a retest of the overnight high.

Thursday morning's influence was likely to be bullish. Wednesday's pullback day influence had been fulfilled, and resolved in a breakout that persisted through its 3333.50-3335.50 close. Thursday's gap up to 3344.00 didn't extend higher, but dips maintained positive territory while making rising lows. Somewhat similar to Wednesday, Thursday morning's pattern also earns the influence of a subsequent timing window. But also similar to Wednesday, Thursday afternoon only hovered around the open up to 3346.50. Perhaps anxiousness paralyzed sponsorship ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report, as the session ended right back at its 3344.00 open. Thursday spent a lot of time absorbing selling pressure, and still developed exclusively in positive territory. Sellers gained no traction for their efforts, suggesting their sponsorship is weak-handed. By the same token, buyers never exploited their defense of positive territory, so immediately resuming the rally Friday would require gapping up above the 3346.50 Thursday afternoon highs. At least one objective above is outstanding at the 3357.75 overnight high's "new Globex trend extreme" which requires intraday retest. The rally's next higher objective at 3355.00 has yet to be tested intraday, too. A new trend high close on a Friday would entrench the rally. But closing Friday under a relevant support like 3308.00-3311.00 can instead ignore upside attractions to launch another downleg. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3352.25 3350.50 ...would target 3360.25 3358.50 Bias-down: under 3341.50 3340.00 ...would target 3334.50 3333.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.