Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday night's 3361.00 low was down sharply from Sunday night's 3392.50 high. It was recovered just enough for a post-open dip that held a test of all but the lowest of Friday's late lows. The bias-down signal was also recovered to trigger no-bias while bouncing to 3374.50. But no higher before being invalidated on the way back down through all of Friday's lows to 3355.25 by noon. That tested another set of prior lows from Thursday's 3359.25 bottom. The afternoon retraced the open's 3374.50, but no higher before closing at 3369.00-3370.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) After starting out aggressively bullish, overnight action has become more about maintaining that optimistic overnight posture. Tuesday's late pullback immediately resolved up to probe higher and higher above the intraday highs. Friday's post-close 3382.25 high was attacked to within 1 tick by midnight. Narrow ranging gave way at Europe's opens, suddenly collapsing back down to 3374.00. Its reaction has been consolidating since then above yesterday's highs. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Tuesday afternoon's rally was only noise, remaining within the morning downleg's range, and the close was overlapping its opening print. Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts, so trending Wednesday morning should begin by gapping open. Gapping up is indicated, not down. Challenging resistance at Friday's 3379.00-3380.00 close was clearly influential overnight, and still holding. Still holding, and still keeping price in proximity to the 3372.25 "earlier Globex low." Having probed above yesterday's high, opening back under 3372.25 could form a bearish Globex-flip. Otherwise, exiting the open above yesterday's high should next target last Thursday's 3384.75 high, if not also 3391.00. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3377.00 would be likely to trigger the 3374.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3370.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

New strong-handed sponsorship arrives. Yesterday afternoon's rally to 3375.00 gained no traction for its efforts, meaning its buying pressure was satisfied. Extending higher this morning would require new strong-handed sponsorship, which would be indicated by gapping up. So, gapping up would be likely to trend up this morning. Greeting the open at the 3380.25 bias-up signal made sell signals unreliable, and a post-open dip to 3377.75-3378.75 would be optimal for long-entry before extending the rally. The open did retrace into its support and then reacted up sharply to 3384.25 at the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement between Monday's Globex close and open. Hovering pessimistically short of Thursday's 3384.75 prior intraday high was bullish from a contrarian perspective. Its break higher to 3387.25 was corrected by 5 points while renewing this morning's bias-up signal. Fresh highs would now be likely to test 3391.00. 3391.00 and Sunday night's 3392.50 high don't require a retest, despite it being likely. Its test isn't any likelier to reverse down, but any significant resistance is capable of it. Meanwhile, the rally's next higher objective to closing above 3391.00 would be 3451.00.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3391.00 3391.00 ...would target 3397.00 3397.00 Bias-down: under 3384.25 3384.25 ...would target 3379.25 3379.25 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Optimism ahead of FOMC. FOMC Minutes will be released at the top of the hour. It's not the most influential event, but it can inhibit sponsorship. That would explain the relatively narrow 4-point range since exiting the morning's bias window at its 3391.00 target. Optimism would explain that narrow range hovering at new highs ahead of FOMC Minutes. But ineffectual optimism, or restrained? I'm assuming the latter, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. At least expecting an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up, even if only temporary. Any reaction should be retraced at some point, also even if only temporarily. Get past all of that, and nothing prevents this pattern from trending either way through the balance of the session. But if not trending down out of the bias window, then the balance of the session would have become more vulnerable to trending up.

Wednesday was the Godfather day, when the market settled all family business. There wasn't much outstanding, and none of it required being done. But the market had great intent to get there, having come from Tuesday morning's 3355.00 low. Wednesday's new high at 3393.75 settled the following family business:

Thursday's 3384.75 high was followed by Friday's inside day, which is by definition intertwined with Thursday's session. Being expiration, and also being a 3-day holiday weekend, Friday and all things belonging to it could not be a trend extreme. Wednesday's new high replaces it. Without complexity to its singular surge, Thursday night's 3388.50 high didn't qualify as a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring intraday retest. Sunday night's 3392.50 high had no complexity above Thursday night's high. But even Tuesday morning's 3355.00 low was still in the same range as the overnight highs, so not extending down immediately kept their retest alive. Wednesday's new high produced that retest. The rally's next higher objective at 3391.00 had been tested repeatedly, but only overnight. And it repeatedly held. Its first intraday test was Wednesday, and it held again. Closing any higher would still put into play the rally's next higher objective at 3451.00.

Wednesday may have formed a Gap-and-go setup. After hovering at the highs through the close would have fully formed the setup. But that was undermined by trending down through the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window. At least the late dip held above prior highs, so flat-to-lower Thursday would remain vulnerable to rewarding the setup with fresh highs anyway. No traction was gained either way Wednesday afternoon, so trending through the morning would require gapping open. Trending without first gapping would be likely to return back into Wednesday's range, if not also through it. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3391.00 3391.00 ...would target 3397.50 3397.50 Bias-down: under 3384.00 3384.00 ...would target 3377.00 3377.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.