Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday night's drop to 2780.50 had stabilized 7 points higher, but that was still under Tuesday's close and in negative territory. A post-open surge to 2792.50 essentially erased both, but only momentarily before collapsing to test the next lower objective at 2777.00 thanks in part to China trade headlines. The objectives test and retest were isolated to the bias environment, inhibiting more sponsorship for the day. The balance of the session rallied up to 2796.25, back in positive territory and above the open's initial high. The cash session close was still overlapping Tuesday's 2791.50 open and close, part of the problem that had led to Tuesday night's decline. Overnight action's new info... Post-close action had extended another point up to 2797.25, which the Globex open quickly rejected on the way back down to 2790.00. Hovering there shallowly through midnight began accelerating the pullback to attack 2781.50 into and out of Europe's opens. RSIs diverged positively to enable a bounce that has been testing and retesting 2788.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday's recovery had stopped short of levels that would ensure extending higher without delay. But it recovered enough to allow room for a reaction down to be only a temporary pullback, without yet extending the decline to 2754.00. The overnight drop so far is contained entirely withing yesterday's range, and nothing yet requires probing either end of it. But both bias-down parameters have been attractive, and the 10:15 resolution to their test might be the next signal either way. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2791.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2788.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2784.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2780.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2781.50 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.

Opening volatility fails to agree on a direction. Recovering from the 2781.75 overnight low go to 2792.50 before the open. Dipping into and out of the open tested the 2788.00 bias-down signal. Its reaction pierced the pre-open high, and dipped back down to the post-open low. The post-open low's retest got to 2784.25. Another big bounce managed to overlap the 2788.00 bias-down signal at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Like the open's round trip, another dip to 2784.25 recovered in time to overlap the 2788.00 in time to trigger noN-bias. Not bias-down, targeting 2781.50. Not no-bias, targeting an offsetting test of the 2794.00 bias-up signal. But noN-bias, able to fluctuate without intent. Choppy and sloppy. Be careful trading this morning's pattern, which remains within the range and without an objective or limitation.

It's not quite a "dry cleaners morning," but still not for everyone. Meanwhile, here's a video of this morning's open when I discussed the alternative strategy of fading inflection points.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2795.25 2795.50 ...would target 2802.75 2803.00 Bias-down: under 2787.25 2787.50 ...would target 2780.25 2780.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Sloppy and choppy prevail. The overnight range was contained entirely within yesterday's range. And now this morning and noon hour have been contained within the overnight range. Price action is getting less volatile, not more so. Neither of this afternoon's bias signals was touched -- not even attacked -- and now this is a no-bias environment. Trending attempted at 2:30 as the bias environment begins lapsing would be credible for extending int the close. Otherwise without an artificial catalyst, the pattern indicates no sponsorship. It has no requirement to resolve in either direction, or to resolve today at all.

The week's earlier volatility catalysts had largely subsided before Thursday's open. Left to its own devices, intraday price action proved uninterested in resolving to either direction. Two considerable trending attempts overnight had remained within Wednesday's range. Morning choppiness was restrained by a shrinking range. And the afternoon range was narrower still. Price action from a narrowing extended range has limited predictive value. But gapping down and ranging exclusively in negative territory suggests that weak hands are bearish, which would mean strong hands are bulls. This factor isn't predictive, but would reinforce an immediately bullish move Friday. With the narrowing range behind, and weekend illiquidity ahead, credible trending would appear sooner rather than later Friday. Appear early, and quickly extend beyond a prior relevant level, or else Friday's biggest risk would be remaining within the relatively narrow range. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2790.50 2790.75 ...would target 2797.75 2798.00 Bias-down: under 2780.00 2780.50 ...would target 2774.00 2774.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.