Stock Market Trading Signals - 03-13-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday night's relentless one-way rally from 2362.00 had expressed a lot of optimism ahead of Friday morning's Employment Situation report. The news did trigger a surge up to 2376.25, but post-open action trended back down. Briefly probing negative territory down to 2359.00 coming out of the noon hour was recovered up to 2370.00 into the close. It was a second consecutive higher close, and the first in seven session not to probe under the prior session's low. Overnight action's new info... A relatively narrow 3-point range has been restrained from recovering into positive territory above 2369.00. The open's dip had retested Friday's last timing window low at 2365.00. Now after attacking it again, a bounce is trying to retest the overnight highs. If, then... The narrow overnight range is otherwise uninteresting, except that global exchanges are much firmer. The difference in character does suggest taking credibly almost any post-open rally. But more often it represents an attraction below. Which keeps with the bullish scenario that still allows for retesting Thursday's oversold RSIs at 2351.00. Quickly probing above Friday's late recovery high would still get a benefit of the doubt for extending, anyway, attracted to the two-week old 2377.50 gap up bar, if not also to retest the highs up to 2401.00 or even to 2415.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2367.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2373.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2371.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2365.50 bias-down signal.

Friday's highs holding. Overnight highs were probed before the open up to 2370.50. A post-open surge touched 2372.00. That was half the requirement for rallying this morning. the other half was to maintain the surge, but it was quickly retraced to back under the overnight high. Friday's 2370.00 high ultimately held as resistance. This is  a no-bias environment. And since neither bias signal was touched, no offsetting test of the other bias signal is required. Fresh post-open lows have tested 2367.00. The 2365.50 bias-down signal could be tested, or even probed so long as its test were ultimately to define the window's lower-end. Breaking lower later would open the door to attacking or retesting Thursday's 2351.00 low. Bounces meanwhile should hold 2371.25. Exiting the bias environment above 2372.50 would be credible for extending higher this afternoon.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2375.50 2372.25 ...would target  2380.50  2377.50 Bias-down: under  2368.50  2365.50 ...would target  2363.75  2360.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Range bound morning is bleeding into a range bound afternoon. This morning's no-bias environment was entered without touching either bias signal. Not maintaining the open's surge had marginalized the upside. That didn't necessarily default to requiring a drop, but it allowed room to test the 2365.50 bias-down signal as support. The bias environment started lapsing at 2365.50. Its reaction had room up to 2370.00 before starting to signal a new upleg underway. That's where the reaction's bounce peaked.

Now this afternoon has triggered no-bias. Without first touching either bias environment. Again. The "dry cleaners morning" appears to have bled into a dry cleaners afternoon.

Actually, that constraint can resolve when the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing. A rally would become possible. Neither resolving nor rallying is required. And nothing in the pattern prohibits another drop that retests Thursday's 2351.00 low.

Has anxiousness ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting already begun to paralyze price action? Do HFT algos stay offline coming out of daylight savings adjustments as the market absorbs the circadian shock? Monday was essentially a so-called nothing burger. Its positive close isn't cumulative to the prior two for signaling strength. The inside day isn't even contrarian, as no timing windows trended. Both the morning and afternoon's no-biases triggered without touching either bias signal. The same predictive behaviors defining Monday's open can be applied Tuesday. A retest of Thursday's low is still a risk. Resuming the rally is likely, regardless. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2373.25 2373.00 ...would target  2382.00  2379.00 Bias-down: under  2367.50  2364.50 ...would target  2361.25  2358.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.