Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wide swings greeted Thursday's open, and persisted intraday. Wednesday night's initial 15-point drop had recovered 20 points to greet the open back at Wednesday's 2815.50 last-minute high. Extending even further into positive territory tested 2824.00, too late to be strong-handed while also fulfilling the bias-up target -- not exactly a formula for stability. A collapse to 2802.50 bottomed during the noon hour, and was largely retraced to close back at 2819.50 resistance. Overnight action's new info... Sideways ranging has suddenly come alive. Eking higher into the Globex open had found resistance at this morning's 2823.00 bias-up signal. A brief consolidation soon spiked up to within 3 ticks of this morning's 2829.75 bias-up target, and then repeated the reversals at least twice through the night. The most recent dip testing 2823.00 had come within 2 points of the 2820.25 earlier Globex low when suddenly Brexit headlines rescued the potential failure. Combined with optimistic trade talk, a 30-minute surge is probing Wednesday and Thursday morning highs up to 2834.25. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) This week's wide, choppy ranging is now bumping into the hard deadline of weekend illiquidity. Overnight action had formed much of a bearish Globex-flip pattern by retracing its probe above yesterday's high. That organic pattern is suddenly replaced by an upleg thanks to the Brexit headlines artificial catalyst. Headline reactions are often retraced, at least by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}, but that will be moot if not yet done through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Retracing it in time could extend down through the morning, but holding the surge up could more likely attract post-open reinforcements. Friday Factors of impending illiquidity could produce a close above 2827.00 to insert a detour from realizing the effects of last week's massive distribution. The same Friday Factors could produce severe downside consequences if this overnight surge becomes a rubber band that snaps back down through the open. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2825.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2823.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2833.00 would be likely to exceed the 2829.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Gap up has put everyone on defensive. Friday's 2836.00 open gapped up above the past three mornings' highs, blipping-up above Tuesday morning's 2835.00 high up to 2837.50. And then reacting down to 2828.00. But only briefly as the 2829.75 bias-up target was exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal. Its renewed bias-up target is essentially the 2836.00 open up to 2838.00. Which is likely to be tested since the post-open dip was absorbed. This being a Friday, the morning's bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour. That's not equivalent to trending, and could be influential simply by retracing pullbacks. Renewed targets don't become "unfinished business" if left outstanding. And we've already established the current pattern of strong-handed distribution into strength. I'm giving fresh highs a benefit of the doubt, but back under 2829.00 would start to signal at least a corrective dip to 2825.25. Back under the 2823.00 bias-up signal before noon would suggest the strong-handed distribution pattern is rearing its head.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2829.00 2833.00 ...would target 2834.00 2838.00 Bias-down: under 2821.00 2825.25 ...would target 2813.25 2517.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Gap up forms momentum peak. Last night's Globex had soon surged to a fresh high at 2829.00. But for Brexit, the balance of the night was tracking a flat-to-lower open. Thanks Brexit, this morning's open up to 2837.50 inhibited sellers and the balance of the morning was flat-to-lower, albeit aggressively. But even that hasn't reversed the trend down. This morning's bias-up environment fell 14 points from the open's high, only to attack its 2823.00 bias-up signal. A lot of selling pressure expended without even beginning to try gaining traction. Bouncing back toward the open had begun ranging narrowly sideways by noon. The afternoon's no-bias environment is resisted by its 2833.00 bias-up signal. Breaking through it as the bias environment begins lapsing could trend up to fresh highs through the close. Trending down into the weekend would all but require exiting the bias environment under 2827.75 and 2825.25.

Quarter-end portfolio window dressing may have made a difference Friday, as the two-week ranging still sits atop a massive quarter. But open-to-close was little changed, if at all, as I describe below. Meanwhile, Thursday's 2820.25 cash session close was still overlapping 2019.50 to avoid qualifying as a recovery attempt. Friday's session developed exclusively above 2019.50 to clearly qualify as a recovery attempt. Being recovered is the week-old close under 2013.00-2019.50 that signaled the trend is reversing down. A significant signal to have followed a week-long distributive pattern.

A recovery attempt, because trend change signals aren't discarded easily. Neither are they triggered easily. Last Friday's triggering close had required Monday's second consecutive close to confirm. Similarly, this Friday's recovery attempt requires its own confirmation, closing again back above 2019.50. Otherwise, the recovery attempt fails, and the trend change remains intact.

At least two setups are undermining the recovery attempt. Closing Friday at or overlapping its opening bar's 2837.50 opening high reflects equilibrium. This setup often accompanies weak-handed sponsorship, which would suggest that Friday's buyers won't be attracting reinforcements on Monday. Friday's "ineffectual optimism" also reflects weak-handed buyers -- gapping up, ranging exclusively in positive territory, probing a fresh high, but not closing above the last prior high probed. Gapping up Monday can invalidate both bearish setups. Overbought RSIs at 2840.00 were neutralized before the close. Which is not a sell signal, but removes an upside attraction that would have been a helpful reminder to the market coming out of the weekend. A lot of buying pressure was expended intraday, without gaining traction for the effort or leaving "unfinished business" above, so extending higher anyway would be bullish for at least attacking the recent distribution highs. Not extending higher Monday could already be gapping down sharply. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2838.50 2842.50 ...would target 2844.25 2848.25 Bias-down: under 2829.75 2834.00 ...would target 2823.00 2827.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.