Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Choppy overnight ranging supported at 2595.00 broke eventually lower to 2572.50. But it was within 60-90 minutes of Tuesday's open, forming the Too Late to Break setup. A post-open dip to 2580.00 also failed, reversing back into the range. Extending back above Monday's highs up to 2629.00 stopped just short of the 2635.75 overnight highs. And far short of morning's bias-up target, which was an objective put into play by absorbing the open's dip. Its test wasn't required, and exiting the morning bias environment fell aggressively back to the 2580.00 post-open low. And eventually through overnight lows down to 2556.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Markets globally are down on average 3{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}. Tuesday afternoon's drop persisted without hesitation through the Globex open, extending through midnight down to 2476.00. A sharp but brief bounce up to 2512.00 through Europe's opens was soon retraced almost entirely. Ranging has since narrowed. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) [Click here for Tuesday's Bias Basics Workshop recording.] Last night's drop hasn't yet proved it is reversing the trend back down. It is on the cusp, and could quickly become a much deeper collapse. But this current retracement back to Sunday night's gap down doesn't yet prevent a morning rally. A morning rally is required to keep open the door to probing fresh highs, but trending down at the open would shut it. Extending any lower would likely test 2433.00, which is the real line in the sand that can end the 2020 Bull Market (i.e. last week's bear market bounce). First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 2511.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2533.00 bias-down target to renew the bias-down signal.

Mud, or quicksand? Relentless overnight downtrending to 2477.00 had reached the cusp of being able to end last week's rally. Even then, one more post-open dive would have room down to 2433.00 before any higher high could be dismissed. The bullish template had all but required a fresh low and its recovery, all on a timely basis. A fresh low did develop down to 2467.00, but it only reacted more than it recovered. Bouncing through the open probed 2490.00-2491.00 resistance, but didn't break resistance. And didn't reject resistance. 9:45 and 10:00 both came and went with several probes above resistance. No reinforcements arrived above their 3-4 minute extremes, and each reaction down was recovered. The resistance wasn't surprising -- we discussed its significance during the Market Tour. Still not resolving its test is very surprising. Another higher high at 2500.00 has also reacted down. Another higher high would all but target 2511.00-2512.00. But no higher high is required, so bottoming may yet require digging deeper to find stronger-handed buyers on the way down to 2433.00. Bottom, or bust.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2511.25 2498.25 ...would target 2533.25 2520.25 Bias-down: under 2485.00 2472.00 ...would target 2468.00 2455.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Sorted it to the downside. The open's failure either to recovered above 2490.00-2491.00 resistance or to reject it was already sub-optimal price action. Much of the bias environment extended higher anyway, but not cleanly. The morning behavior continually reversed from only slightly higher highs, and briefly extended violated pullback limits, before resuming its recovery attempt up to 2510.00. The noon hour was entered back under resistance, on the way down to 2453.50. Triggering this afternoon's bias-down signal is keeping open the door to 2433.00. The low doesn't require a retest, let alone a break down to 2433.00. Otherwise, bias-down rallying above the 2472.00 bias-down signal would require being retraced, but could extend more reliably after the bias environment lapses.

Trending down relentlessly overnight had blipped-down to 2467.50 before the open. That was the first of a 2-part reversal setup, but the second half couldn't recover 2490.00-2491.00 resistance through the open. Not for lack of trying, but for not lacking in legs that only overlapped instead of trend up. Extending higher anyway soon learned that its base couldn't launch a durable recovery. Ultimately failing to hold 2460.00 put into play 2433.00 which was met to within 5 ticks. It might have been probed if not for the knee-jerk reaction to favorable coronavirus news that triggered a surge targeting 2468.00. Reversing down through the close retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the surge to 2447.00. Relevant characteristics shared with Tuesday's intraday pattern suggests Wednesday is a duplicated session. Duplicate, meaning they share the same sponsorship since the prior trend's extreme. This keeps alive potential for the cumulative pullback to its 2433.00 limit to be only a temporary pullback before resuming the recovery. Only correcting the 2-day drop before resuming the decline is a separate template. Extending down immediately Thursday wouldn't be assured of closing lower, but closing lower would signal that the bear market had likely already resumed. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2482.00 2469.00 ...would target 2501.50 2488.50 Bias-down: under 2458.00 2445.00 ...would target 2444.00 2431.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.