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(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Tuesday''s opening surge was retraced entirely after probing above Monday''s high, but recovered quickly from 2072.25 to a higher high that fulfilled the bias-up target. Despite maintaining the potential for resuming the rally, ranging sideways into the final hour broke 10 points under 2077.50 support.

Overnight action''s new info...
The late break''s 2066.00 objective was met soon after the cash session close. A later probe under it by only 6 ticks was recovered to 2073.75. That has since reacted back down to within 6 ticks of 2066.00.

If, then...
End o''quarter earnings season kicks off unofficially today with the high-profile post-close Alcoa (AA) announcement. Whether they''ve been talked down enough will be obvious when the first miss resolves in higher prices. That won''t prevent an initially negative knee-jerk reaction, and the market might meanwhile be walking on eggshells. This afternoon''s FOMC Minutes should have the same inhibiting effect before its release. A path higher can greet these obstacles either from higher ground where a reaction down can be more easily absorbed, or else from lower levels after trapping shorts. The latter path runs the risk of attracting fresher sellers, since yesterday''s pullback is already testing 2066.00 support, with further room only 5 points lower. Perhaps the most suspicious effort would be rallying early to 2075.00-2077.50 resistance without exceeding it.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2076.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2075.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2069.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up, and likely at least to test the 2066.00 bias-down signal intraday.

Yesterday''s late drop retraced entirely. For a moment. 

Opening at 2070.50 was quickly bought up to consolidate 1 tick above the 2066.75 preliminary indication at 9:45, making the 2075.00 bias-up signal likely to trigger at 10:15.

Which it did.

It also to within 3 ticks of the 2081.00 bias-up target, at least retracing all of yesterday''s last-hour drop. That did react back down to within 1 tick of 2075.00, but bias-up wasn''t rejected through 10:30 which would have invalidated its 10:15 state.

Now, the only way to invalidate the 10:15 signal is to exit the bias environment at 11:30 under the open''s 2070.50 low. But there''s no way that could possib... wait, what?

A buy signal at 2077.50 was touched, but not pierced, just when another downleg began (presumably triggered by the EIA report). It tumbled to 2066.50. Being a knee-jerk reaction to news, its oversold RSIs don''t require a retest. 

In fact, its reaction is now attacking 2073.00. That''s won''t be deep enough to invalidate the 2075.00 bias-up at 11:30. But already recovering 2075.00 and 2077.50 by then would be optimal.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2084.50
2077.50
...would target 2090.00
2083.00
Bias-down: under 2078.50
2071.50
...would target 2073.00
2066.00
Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up slightly Wednesday was unable to recover above . keeping alive Tuesday''s reversal which extended down to 1.0770.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday''s dip into the 1208.50-1213.00 pullback limit wasn''t recovered Wednesday, and instead extended down to attack 1200.50 and 1197.00. Back above 1208.50-1213.00 would now signal the rally had resumed, but there is otherwise no active signal.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday''s test of its 16.80-16.90 pullback target extended to its previous pullback limit of 16.45. Closing down there without having first triggered a buy signal does make it easier again to launch a rally leg, but closing above 16.90.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A slightly higher high at Wednesday''s open up to 165- was retraced sharply back down to 163-21, almost low enough and for almost long enough to extend down by proxy. But a recovery in reaction to the FOMC Minutes retested 164-28. That''s still resistance, and holding ti through the close does keep alive potential for launching the next downleg.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Higher inventories pushed price down Wednesday under 50.50 from Tuesday piercing of 54.00 pushed. Recovering back above 51.45 without delay Thursday is the minimum to reistate the bullish scenario.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping again Wednesday at least avoided gaining downside traction. But not closing above 2.72 prevents greeting Thursday''s EIA report from a position of strength. Support hasn''t broken, so a knee-jerk reaction down would be.likely to recover.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2088.50
2081.25
...would target 2095.25
2088.50
Bias-down: under 2078.00
2071.25
...would target 2067.00
2066.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.