Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday's gap up to 2802.00 didn't reverse down through the first 15 minutes of volatility. This confirmed that Wednesday afternoon's bullish traction would influence the morning bias environment, which was soon attacking 2837.00. And it might have extended higher, but its corrective dip had retraced precisely 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} -- enough to qualify as a correction, without yet confirming the uptrend had resumed. So, a negative headline triggered a plunge to 2786.00. Its 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement up to 2817.50 returned to the plunge's low, as did the next bounce, drifting lower through the close to 2779.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The drift extended down to attack 2755.00, which was retested after midnight and after bouncing up to 2770.00. A bigger bounce into Europe's opens tested the intraday close up to 2780.00. Its consolidation resolved up into positive territory, now testing 2807.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Positive territory held until the final minutes, but its natural support was thoroughly chipped away. Its sellers were rewarded overnight, to a degree and not durably. Not already breaking lower through the open was likely to become attracted back up to Thursday morning's overbought RSIs. That seems to be the intent as a gap up is now indicated. Nothing requires resuming or rejecting the Mon-Tue decline. Yesterday ended at almost a standing stop in the middle of a wide range and no more likely to resolve either way. The overnight swing hasn't yet indicated any new resolve, exemplified by having reversed so much from negative territory. Opening so much into positive territory isn't any likelier to avoid reversing, too. Trending through the open would get a benefit of the doubt for extending at least to the next support/resistance, depending on the results of an Opening Thrust test. Otherwise, trending before the weekend might require another headline catalyst. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 2808.00 would be likely to trigger the 2802.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2790.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2802.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2784.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2777.00 bias-down signal.

No straight paths this morning. Yesterday's closing patterns had already suggested the market was disinterested in resolving this week's range. Last night's probe under Thursday's lows down to 2755.00 and then its reversal into positive territory at 2812.99 suggested nothing different. Volatility, wide ranging, but no sponsorship for extending. The open's drop back down to 2785.00 is more of the same. Having begun the session from above this morning's 2802.50 bias-up signal, an offsetting test of its 2777.00 bias-down signal is in-play. But price has only firmed since that was triggered. Back above 2795.00 has potential to probe above the 2802.50 bias-up signal just as noise up to 2808.00 or 2811.00. But extending any higher is unlikely, less likely than even testing 2802.50. So unlikely, that their test(s) would likely be done very aggressively -- suddenly, steeply, and substantially. Meanwhile, back under 2788.00 (now being tested) would confirm the test of 2777.00 is underway. It's possible for the interim detour to have expended buying pressure that might otherwise prevent extending even lower. That could enable a probe under yesterday's lows intends to extend down. But even with the help of Friday Factors, the burden of proof is on sellers to become something more substantial.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2810.50 2801.50 ...would target 2823.25 2814.25 Bias-down: under 2793.25 2784.25 ...would target 2775.00 2766.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Aimless session keeps triggering, anyway. Even with an objective, today's session shows no ability to trend. An offsetting test of its 2777.00 bias-down signal was put into play by holding a test of this morning's 2802.50 bias-up signal. The morning's low attacked 2782.00 before reversing back up through the noon hour. So, 2777.00 becomes "unfinished business." Now this afternoon's 2801.50 bias-up signal has failed to trigger. No objective is put into play, but tests of either bias signal should define that end of the window. So, now testing 2808.00 and any higher like 2811.00 should be retraced, at least to 2801.50 or the 2798.00 1:20 print or lower. Now well past the noon hour and today's session is still an inside day -- more so, contained entirely within yesterday afternoon's range. Breaking beyond the range is unlikely, but likely to be sudden if at all.

The pattern at Thursday's 2789.00 flat close wasn't promising. If it promised anything, it was not to resolve Friday in either direction. The overnight swing from 2755.00 up to 2812.00 avoided extending, or was prevented, and triggered no-bias. An offsetting test of its 2777.00 bias-down signal was only attacked to within 5 points, becoming "unfinished business." Probing above the afternoon's 2801.50 bias-up signal after triggering no-bias requires its retest, so it becomes unfinished business, too. Being doomed to failure didn't prevent the afternoon no-bias rally from attacking Thursday's high to within 2 points at 2835.00. Like Thursday, the otherwise entrenched rally was ambushed by a sudden collapse. This time was shallow and already corrected into the 2828.00 close, forming an inside day. Ending the week at or just above the bear market rally's likely 2825.00-2827.00 target is ironic. Plunging out of the weekend would be poetic. Rallying would be vulnerable to being rejected, as was last Monday morning's rally. Closing any higher could start putting into play higher highs. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2849.00 2840.00 ...would target 2869.75 2860.75 Bias-down: under 2829.00 2820.00 ...would target 2813.50 2804.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.