Stock Market Trading Signals - 05-01-2015

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2091.25
2084.75
...would target 2096.50
2090.00
Bias-down: under 2083.50
2077.00
...would target 2078.50
2072.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

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Through the prior close...
Unfinished business below kept alive the ongoing decline. Wednesday''s outstanding requirement to test 2093.50 was Thursday''s opening print. But that was too late for it to suffice, and had since required also testing 2085.00-2086.50. So, the open''s bounce to 2098.00 resistance was reversed sharply to thoroughly test its new target. Its recovery attempt was reversed into the noon hour, ultimately breaking support to fulfill the next lower targets at 2077.00 and 2070.00. A last-minute bounce to 2083.00 fulfilled near-term buying pressure.

Overnight action''s new info...
While 2082.75 was a near-term target of yesterday''s last-minute bounce, there was also potential to 2086.50. It was eventually met by relatively calm, flat-to-higher ranging. A shallow pullback into Europe''s opens is now being recovered to a fresh high at 2088.00 .

If, then...
Did the Friday Factor already exacerbated the decline by accelerating selling pressures into Thursday? Several major markets are closed today for May Day (China, Russia, Germany, and Singapore). Since sellers gained traction for their efforts yesterday -- by exiting the bias environment under the noon hour''s low and entering the final hour lower -- trending up immediately would require gapping up above yesterday afternoon''s 2090.00 bias environment high... which is being attacked now.  This being a Friday, the morning''s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour. So, triggering bias-up could extend sharply higher through the morning. The alternative would target at least a retest of yesterday''s oversold lows.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2086.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2084.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2093.50 would be likely to renew the bias-up signal by also exceeding the 2090.00 bias-up target through 10:15. But exiting the open under 2080.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Bias-up renewed, barely.

The open''s surge through yesterday afternoon''s 2090.00 bias environment high opened the door to rejecting the traction that yesterday afternoon''s sellers had gained. That immediately touched the preliminary 2093.50 level, and didn''t exceed it through 9:45, making the bias-up unlikely to be renewed.

It was renewed. Barely -- 2090.00 is also this morning''s bias-up target, and the 10:15 bar exceeded it by an entire tick. But the renewed bias-up target at 2095.25 was quickly met, and quickly reacted down 7 points to 2088.25.

The only thing inhibiting a reversal down is that the bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour on Fridays. Having said that, back under 2090.00 (being probed now) could fill the gap back down to yesterday''s 2083.00 close, extend down to 2077.00, and retest yesterday''s 2070.25 low.

Otherwise, having dipped back under both bias-up targets, back above 2091.50 would suggest the dip had failed to gain traction. Higher highs would target 2101.50 and potentially 2109.50-2111.00.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2101.75
2095.25
...would target 2108.00
2101.50
Bias-down: under 2093.00
2086.50
...would target 2087.75
2081.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Treating Wednesday''s surge above 1.1020 resistance as a breakout, made Thursday''s higher high its confirmation, which requires at least an eventual third higher close. Friday tried initially to extend higher, but mostly just ranged around Thursday''s highs. Extending the rally above 1270 would target 1.1400, so long as 1.1120 now holds as support.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding the 1182.70 bounce limit Thursday kept alive the 1170.00-1174.00 target, which was attacked night, and probed intraday Friday down to 1168.50. Closing above 1182.70 would now signal momentum reversing up, but extending lower would target 1154.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing Thursday to 16.15 instead of recovering it kept alive the reversal''s momentum, but that wasn''t exploited as Thursday''s 15.80 low was only retraced by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} -- outperforming Gold. Back above 16.15 would target 16.50-16.65.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday broke lower to test 157-16. So, Wednesday and Thursday''s probes under 159-14/159-26 may be the first half of a four-day sequence of two consecutive unconfirmed breakouts. That would make the pattern''s fourth day on Monday unlikely to confirm, either by not probing lower or by recovering from a probe lower. Actually confirming Friday''s breakout on Monday would target 156-08, and then potentially 154-02.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having confirmed Wednesday''s breakout above 57.70 with a second consecutive higher close above the 59.31 target on Thursday, Friday was free to dip. Holding 58.65 support keeps alive this leg''s upward momentum, next targeting 61.75 and 62.45. Often, at least firming on Friday is likely as a hedge against a weekend geopolitical surprise, but complacency seems more influential.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday''s surge was extended Friday and touched the 2.80 target. Now pullbacks should hold 2.71 to maintain the rally''s momentum, next targeting 3.06.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2109.50
2103.00
...would target 2105.75
2109.50
Bias-down: under 2099.75
2093.50
...would target 2093.75
2087.25
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.