Stock Market Trading Signals - 05-03-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Monday's 2065.00 open gapped up just above Friday afternoon's high and essentially marginalized sellers for the day. The choppy morning finally started resolving up at noon, rallying from 2063.00 to 2077.00. Then it ran into the lower-end of the range that had preceded Thursday afternoon's drop -- "higher prior lows" and pivotal trendline at 2076.50-2077.50. Despite seeming relentless, the rally gained no traction as only the bias environment's exit was above a prior timing window's high. Overnight action's new info... Flat-to-lower ranging back to 2072.50 was sent spiraling lower by a Australia's interest rate cut. The pace began slowing after probing under yesterday's 2065.00 open, but has nevertheless extended to attack 2057.00. That's under yesterday's 2059.50 post-open low If, then... Yesterday afternoon's rally created a lot of room to absorb selling pressure before it could damage the recovery's pattern. That room ended around 2068.00-2069.00. Just recovering it would be a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement from current lows. And no influential econ report is scheduled today that might be a catalyst. Independently recovering to 2068.00-2069.00 pre-open would be credible, but that's still resistance. The most bullish scenario might be another choppy morning. Not renewing the bias-down signal -- recovering the 2064.50 bias-down target -- would be bullish. Anything less would be vulnerable to retesting Friday's lows, and there's no bullish reason for that. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2059.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2064.50 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2066.00 would be unlikely to renew bias-down. Exiting the open above 2071.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2069.75 bias-down signal.

Retesting lower prior highs that had already held. Rallying this morning was at the very least dependent upon compartmentalizing any probe under yesterday's 2059.50 post-open low. The open tried to compartmentalize the pre-open probing under 2059.50. That failed thanks to a blip-down during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. This also failed being compartmentalized as 9:45 was still testing 2059.50 and not rejecting it. The result was a plunge to 2053.50, and then lower to 2050.25. 2050.50 happens to be a relevant level. It was tested AT the 10:15 bias timing window, which at least compartmentalizes the sponsorship testing it. Its reaction tested the 2056.00 area. So long as the 2050.25 low isn't broken -- so long as the 10:15 low is THE low -- exiting the bias environment back above 2059.50 could compartmentalize the probing under it. That wouldn't be optimal, but it's probably today's last bullish template.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2063.25 2057.00 ...would target  2069.50  2063.50 Bias-down: under  2056.50 2050.50 ...would target 2050.75  2044.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bouncing back to the open. 10:15's 2050.25 low was finally broken by more than an errant tick or two. That ended the potential for compartmentalizing this morning's break under 2059.50. Meanwhile, that break bottomed at 11:30 at 2048.00. So, its sponsorship is similarly vulnerable to being compartmentalized.

This afternoon's 2057.00 bias-up signal is a function of that last downleg. Recovering it, and its room for noise up to 2057.00, has now triggered bias-up. We assume the bias-up bounce is only a correction, which was dictated by this morning's bias environment exit not recovering 2059.50.

Speaking of which, 2059.50 is now being probed by 1 point. It can be probed up to Friday afternoon's high while being only noise. That's essentially this afternoon's 2063.50 bias-up target. Exiting the afternoon bias environment any higher would be difficult to co-exist with the morning's probe under 2056.00. It would require that Wednesday's open gap significantly to reject one, or the other. For now, invalidating the current bias-up signal requires exiting this afternoon's bias environment back under its 2050.50 bias-down signal.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2067.25 2061.00 ...would target  2072.25  2066.00 Bias-down: under  2059.00  2052.75 ...would target 2053.00  2046.75 Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Closing above 2056.00 Tuesday could have undermined the morning's break under it. Actually, closing above 2059.50 would have at least negated the downward momentum. Regardless, Tuesday's close was at 2056.00, not being recovered, certainly not decisively. The retest of early-April's consolidation is likely to give way. Potential for another counter-trend bounce can't be discounted, especially since 2056.00 was still being tested at Tuesday's close. But unless Wednesday's open were to gap up sufficiently to invalidate Tuesday's break -- similar to how Monday's rally was invalidated -- then the resolution is likely to be down. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.