Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Fed Chair Powell's weekend comments sent Sunday night's Globex 39 points higher to 2897.00. MRNA's vaccine news triggered a pre-open surge up to 2934.00. The Relentless Overnight Trending setup's likelihood to extend higher through Monday morning soon attacked 2953.00. The afternoon hovered around the morning's high, nearly forming a bullish Gap-and-go setup, which was disqualified when the final half-hour surged to attack 2965.00 and also collapsed back down to the noon hour's 2942.50 low. No traction was gained. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The last-minute collapse's consolidation eventually resolved down to lower lows at 2935.00 by midnight. Firming back to unchanged suddenly surged 30 points to greet Europe's opens at new recovery highs testing 2976.00. I'm not currently aware of a catalyst, other than anticipating a better yesterday's rally would be more infectious. There was enough complexity to form a new Globex trend extreme requiring intraday retest. Regardless, the reaction was just as sudden, almost as steep, and more substantial. Fresh overnight lows just tested yesterday's opening range down to 2931.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Monday's last-minute collapse had met its 2943.00 target without yet reacting to it. This is equilibrium similar to Friday's close, which similarly makes this morning equally vulnerable to trending in either direction. The overnight gyration confirms this state of pliability. Rejecting last night's probe above yesterday's highs, by opening under earlier Globex lows AND under yesterday's post-open lows, is threatening to form bearish Isolation and/or Globex-flip setups. Threatening. Remember that fully forming a setup without actually triggering it through the open can be as bullish as it would have been bearish. Meanwhile, yesterday's opening range which is now being tested can be a critical landmark, and its support is just being tested after already having slid 45 points since last night's high. Today's trending -- whether durable or alternating legs -- should be substantial... Monday's rally ignored the WHO conference's anti-China motions, but China probably did not, so be prepared for a retaliatory rebuttal. Tuesday is more likely to focus on Fed Chair Powell's 10:00 ET remarks, which the market has likely already discounted. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 2943.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2933.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2950.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2957.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2961.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Conflicting signals. A bearish Globex-flip setup formed by exiting the open at 9:45 back under the 2945.00-2947.00 earlier Globex lows. This morning was likely to trend down, or at least to remain under pressure. This morning hasn't trended down, but it continues to back-and-fill in negative territory. That's not much to say for the setup. Meanwhile, the 2933.00 bias-down signal held its test through 10:15 to signal no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2957.50 bias-up signal. It has been attacked up to 2955.00. That pre-10:15 high has yet to be exceeded, which would suggest the bearish Globex-flip's backing-and-filling is done. Equilibrium should produce either wide swings like last night, or a more durable trend. This morning produced neither. Recovering the 2957.50 bias-up signal through the noon hour could extend up to the 2976.25 overnight high. Reacting down from testing 2957.50 would instead start signaling another multi-session high may be forming.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2967.50 2961.50 ...would target 2983.00 2977.00 Bias-down: under 2949.00 2943.00 ...would target 2937.00 2931.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Still stuck around unchanged. The morning eventually probed higher to 2956.50, coming within 4 ticks of the bias objective. That was close enough for the objective not to become unfinished business. Sellers haven't retaken control, so there may yet be more upside. This afternoon's 2943.00 bias-down signal avoided triggering, and there's room up to the 2961.50 bias-up signal. Afternoon strength could be restrained by yesterday's 2958.00 bias environment highs to maintain the Isolation setup still forming. Probing any higher would target a retest of the 2976.25 overnight high's "new Globex trend extreme." Breaking lower out of the bias environment would be credible for sliding into the Fri-Mon gap-to-gap retracement.

A 40-point overnight surge greeted Europe's opens at 2976.00, then reversed down even more sharply to 2931.00. Tuesday's open didn't extend the reversal, but held under the earlier Globex low to trigger a bearish Globex-flip. The setup failed to prevent the morning from probing back above Monday's 2947.00 close. Eking higher was poised to enter the final hour at 2958.50, which would have launched an upleg into the close. But it was ambushed by MRNA's headline which triggered a knee-jerk reaction down to 2933.00. The headline reaction's timing meant that sellers would control the balance of the session, and price collapsed further down to 2915.50. I'm not among them, but there is a contingent of prominent people that believes vaccines aren't safe. They could be laughing today not only at MRNA, but also at Monday's rally that enabled it. MRNA could be both the air pump and pin, but is the recovery attempt that tenuous? Complexity at Monday night's "new Globex trend extreme" requires its eventual retest. That could be left outstanding indefinitely, so extending down would still be credible. Gap-to-gap support between Friday's close and Monday's open is between 2885.00-2891.00. Tuesday's late knee-jerk reaction is vulnerable to probing lower Wednesday. Not gapping up would put the burden of proof on buyers. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2935.75 2929.75 ...would target 2949.00 2943.00 Bias-down: under 2914.00 2908.00 ...would target 2900.75 2894.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.