Pre-Market Open Predictions - 7:31 AM

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Thursday morning''s recovery from the overnight dip into negative territory was able to extend higher through the bias environment. But not beyond, other than a blip-up before the close. Otherwise, choppy ranging throughout the afternoon was centered around 2128.00-2130.25. No traction was gained for the effort, only a new high close, which occurred without probing prior highs.

Overnight action''s new info...
The relatively narrow, choppy range has persisted. Alternating between probing 1-2 points under 2128.00, and piercing 2130.25 above.

If, then...
This being a Friday, the morning''s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. This being a .three-day weekend, thinning participation makes trending difficult to start, and difficult to end once started, or to reverse if ended. Low-volume environments can reflect the will of weaker-handed participants, so the strong-handed distribution up here I''ve been documenting doesn''t prevent a break higher from extending in this low-volume environment.

First Trade...
Exiting the open above 2131.00 would be likely at least to test the 2133.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2125.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2133.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2121.75 would be likely to trigger the 2123.25 bias-down signal.


Stock Market Opening Strategy - 10:35 AM

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Pre-open drop runs into Friday Factor.

Trending is difficult to start on Fridays. So, the pre-open drop to support at the 2123.25 bias-down signal wasn''t likely to extend. In fact, a post-open blip-down touched it again before reacting up sharply to 2127.75.

Not much has happened since then. Yesterday''s 2128.00 futures close is natural resistance, and filling its gap has inhibited extending higher. That was a long time ago, without yet reversing down, so this appears to be ineffectual pessimism.

Have I said, yet, how difficult it is to trend on Fridays? Reacting from one end of the range to the other isn''t trending. And holding a test of the 2123.25 bias-down signal has put into play an offsetting test of the 2133.00 bias-up signal.

Back under 2125.25 would start to signal new lows, potentially to 2121.75. There is otherwise no requirement for a fresh low.


Tonight's Day Trading Plan - 11:59 AM

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FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2130.75
2128.00
...would target 2135.75
2133.00
Bias-down: under 2123.75
2121.00
...would target 2118.50
2115.75
Signal status: NOn-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Daily Spot... Euro exhaustion, or on its way? - 2:22 PM

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The required third lower close wasn''t delayed long by Friday''s gap up. It was rejected immediately by a plunge to fresh lows at 1.1005, which hovered at the lows through the noon hour. Closing under 1.1095 now triggers a larger pattern that points much lower if confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Monday. That confirmation isn''t assured, since Friday''s drop may have been exacerbated by the impending holiday weekend.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight to test 1213.00 resistance didn''t prevent retesting 1205.00 support intraday Friday. But still overlapping both instead of exceeding one of them prevented launching a trend in that direction.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
An overnight bounce attacked 17.35 whose recovery would signal 18.15 is in-play. Just closing above 17.25 would suggest the pullback had ended. Still testing 17.05 support did not preclude recovering either.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending Thursday''s rally overnight attacked 154-30 resistance, but reversed down through Friday''s open to test "lower prior highs" at 153-20. The detour makes the decline likely to resume aggressively if it is resuming at all.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight weakness enabled Friday''s open to the 59.75 sell signal. Probing under it quickly was only retraced for the balance of the session to range around 59.75 and avoid triggering the sell signal.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
.Despite having held Thursday''s gap up through the close, overnight weakness filled the gap back down to Wednesday''s 2.91 close and probed under its low to test 2.88. Any delay to recovering 2.97 would more likely extend the pullback to 2.82 before launching an upleg.


Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 4:37 PM

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TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2130.50
2127.75
...would target 2135.50
2133.00
Bias-down: under 2125.00
2122.50
...would target 2118.50
2115.75
Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.