Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Probing under Thursday's 3019.50 low was already likely as follow-through of the late headline reaction. The first overnight low's reaction from 3011.00, and subsequent reactions, barely attacked Thursday's close before reacting down again. Not rallying defaulted to extending lower, which fulfilled Wednesday afternoon's unfinished business at 3001.00. Afternoon attempts to break lower included the knee-jerk reaction to Trump's China sanctions announcement and held 2992.00. But rallying through Friday's cash session close filled the open's gap back up to 3039.00, and futures extended up to 3055.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Much of Friday's late surge was likely untenable, which was proved by gapping down almost 30 points Sunday night. Its recovery began immediately from 3008.00, and greeted Europe's opens at 3055.00. The open's collapse was repeated, albeit shallower to 3020.50. And now its reaction is probing back above Friday's 3038.00 cash session close to 3046.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Overnight volatility is not predictive of direction, especially not when it greets the open unchanged. Still overlapping Friday's 3038.00 cash session close at the open after still overlapping it through so many overnight timing windows would at least warn the first trending attempt is likely temporary. Friday afternoon's portion of its recovery gained traction, but that's a less reliable influence on Mondays. Nevertheless, we'll give the upside a benefit of the doubt this morning so long as the open doesn't trend down. One of the two bullish resolutions described during this weekend's Saturday Review would extend higher today, probably without much delay. A pullback -- whether begun immediately or after first probing higher this morning -- can't yet be considered bearish until probing well under Friday's lows. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3043.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3030.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3025.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 3043.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3048.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3057.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Delayed reaction down. Price action greeted the open still overlapping Friday's 3038.25 cash session close, and still under its 3054.25 futures close. That wasn't any likelier to resolve up or down. Dipping into the open only touched a 3027.75 sell signal before rallying through the first half-hour to touch the 3048.00 bias-up signal. The grace period did not extend higher, so this is a late no-bias environment. Having held a test of one bias signal, an offsetting test of the 3030.50 bias-down signal is in-play. A couple of buy signals had triggered during the earlier bounce. I was willing to give them a benefit of the doubt for probing higher, which would have formed no-bias trending that requires being retraced. This depended on maintaining the buy signal momentum and exploiting sellers delaying a reversal down. That window is now done, but fresh post-open highs above 3050.50 would suggest another attempt underway.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3053.75 3050.50 3060.25...would target 3063.50 3060.25 Bia3035.00s-down: under 3040.50 3037.25 3018.00...would target 3024.00 3020.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

REMINDER: I'M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS FOR TODAY'S LAST 60-90 MINUTES (no Market Wrap recording or blog post). The open was greeted by a broad cross-section of individual stocks firming. Weekend riots seemed to renew interest in some of the previous home-quarantine beneficiaries, and probably had some contribution to Retailers weakness. Ironically, this may have been the catalyst behind firmer Autos, Airlines, Cruise lines, and even Space Rockets (SPCE) -- their common theme might be whatever the mode or destination, people are only more motivated to leave their city, country, continent, or planet. Meanwhile, indexes struggled within the overnight range. The open's dip only stopped 1 tick short of even starting to trigger a sell signal. Its reaction held a test of the bias-up signal. That did put into play an offsetting test of its 3030.50 bias-down signal. But the objective wasn't met and now becomes unfinished business that requires an eventual test. Add it to the oversold RSIs at Wednesday's 2965.50 low. The premise for resolving this morning's range up was that it would be rewarded by at least probing above last week's highs. The bias-up signal triggered and is targeting 3060.25. That said, already attacking the bias-up target to within 6 ticks at 3059.00 means it wouldn't become unfinished business if left outstanding. And there's a WH press conference upcoming. But a negative reaction has room down to test this afternoon's 3050.50 bias-up signal, and another 30-45 minutes of the bias-up window before triggering a reversal would be more reliable.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3065.25 3062.00 ...would target 3078.75 3075.50 Bias-down: under 3050.25 3047.00 ...would target 3038.25 3035.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.