Stock Market Trading Signals - 06-14-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... You don't see that everyday. I'm not referring to Monday's gap down, or to holding two tests of Friday's 2079.50 low, which avoided triggering bias-down. But higher targets were invalidated upon exiting the bias environment under the open's lows. And that was despite fresh post-10:15 highs confirming the higher targets, piercing positive territory up to 2089.25. The balance of the session trended down to 2068.75. Overnight action's new info... Monday's slide kept its pace and slid to 2064.00. Bouncing back to 2071.75 was already giving way ahead of Europe's opens. Fresh lows down to 2060.25 are being retraced now up to 2067.25. If, then... The decline's next lower target at 2063.50 was put into play. It has been influential overnight, initially attacking it to within 3 ticks, and then probing it temporarily by 3 points. This action can form an isolation setup if post-open action avoids probing negative territory. No influential econ reports are scheduled, and FOMC's policy statement isn't until tomorrow -- neither of which is necessarily bullish or bearish, but they could otherwise be catalysts for sparking counter-trend action. Without already reversing up this morning, the decline could extend toward or to 2043.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2070.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2068.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2064.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2060.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2062.50 bias-down target at 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal next targeting 2057.50 and 2053.00.

Yet another post-open surge gets slammed. Only one template at this stage of the pattern would have aligned with rallying through the morning. That required trending up without hesitation from the open. Meanwhile, a bearish template also would have aligned with trending up at the open. It was simply a version of the path to lower lows being slower. Their difference would be in maintaining the early gain, or not. Not. The 2065.25 opening print spent the entire first 15 minutes of volatility trending up relentlessly to 2072.75. That retested overnight highs. Price action since then has trended back down. The 2068.25 bias-down signal triggered, and its 2062.50 bias-down target has been met already, on the way down to 2058.75.

Another bullish template would have isolated the probe of negative territory to the overnight window by opening in positive territory before surging. That template is reset now that overnight lows have been retested intraday, and exiting the bias environment above the open's 2072.75 high would be bullish. Otherwise, the trend remains down.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2071.25 2062.00 ...would target  2076.75  2067.75 Bias-down: under  2065.50 2056.50 ...would target  2059.50  2050.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Trying to escape the trend's lower lows. The noon hour's bounce from 2055.00 to 2066.00 couldn't maintain its probe above this afternoon's 2062.00 bias-up signal. In the morning, this setup would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2056.50 bias-down signal. The afternoon doesn't require it. The no-bias environment still has room down to 2056.50. But price only continues hovering under 2062.00. Back above 2063.75 would suggest another fresh session high underway, regardless of it originating during a no-bias environment. Meanwhile, fresh session lows remain likely.

2063.50 was tested, probed thoroughly, all without closing under it. But it is still in the process of being tested, and did not necessarily hold. So the premise remains that a deeper drop targeting 2043.00 is underway. No early strength Wednesday would qualify as a delayed signal that 2063.50 had held as support. Gapping up could extend higher before the afternoon's FOMC events, but that would create "unfinished business below" back down to Tuesday's close. Delaying a rally until late-afternoon would be credible for extending. Otherwise, fresh session lows Wednesday are likely -- whether that creates another opportunity for 2063.50 to ultimately hold, or confirms that 2043.00 remains in-play. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2079.00 2069.75 ...would target  2085.00  2076.00 Bias-down: under  2069.50 2060.50 ...would target 2062.25  2053.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.