Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Rallying 100 points overnight from Monday's 3056.00 close didn't change whether Monday's close above 3041.50-3043.00 had formed a position of strength. That made Tuesday morning more vulnerable to a dip. The huge overnight rally made that dip more vulnerable to being deep. The first hour ranged sideways up to its 3141.00 open, then collapsed back down to 3060.00 where simultaneously oversold RSIs require an eventual retest. Piercing the morning's 3066.00 bias-up signal only momentarily not only held, but reacted up sharply. Flat-to-higher ranging through a noN-bias afternoon reached 3130.00, and slid again down to 3092.00 before the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Tuesday afternoon's choppy ranging persisted until Europe's opens. Bouncing around between this morning's 3099.00-3126.00 bias signals then broke higher to probe the 3142.00 bias-up target by 5 Reacting briefly back down into the earlier range is trying to recover. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Unfinished business above at 3159.00 and 3188.00-3197.50 will be the objective of any intraday strength. Oversold RSIs at yesterday morning's low will be the objective of intraday weakness. And bouncing around between the bias signals already creates a specific setup. Adding to it the breakout that is now correcting makes an early trending attempt likely. That attempt can go either way, and it's unlikely to persist. Either the overnight break higher is a "warning shot across the bow" by buyers, or it is stretching the rubber band to snap back down. We'll have early actionable parameters for each. Powell's second day of Congressional testimony might continue to inhibit strong-handed sponsorship, so be prepared for any trending attempt to suddenly end. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3120.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3126.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3133.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Already fulfilled the offsetting test of its bias-down signal. Rallying from the 3096.50 overnight low up to 3147.00 through Europe's opens had reacted down. Its reaction was supported by the 3126.00 bias-up signal. The signal was touched post-open, and not exceeded through 10:15, triggering no-bias. Holding a test of the bias-up signal through 10:15 puts into play an offsetting test of the 3099.00 bias-down signal. It was just tested down to 3098.25. No-bias environments should be contained by their bias signals. So, now having neutralized the attraction below, the balance of the bias window is free to bounce back up to its bias-up signal. It's not required, but some sort of bounce is likelier than just hovering down here at support. Probing fresh lows anyway would be no-bias trending, and require being retraced. Probing fresh lows AFTER the bias window lapses would be free to extend -- as would a probe above the bias-up signal. Either is likely this afternoon.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3135.00 3124.00 ...would target 3147.50 3136.50 Bias-down: under 3113.00 3102.00 ...would target 3092.00 3081.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Powell paralysis passing. This morning's 3099.00 bias-down signal's test was put into play by having held the bias-up signal's test through 10:15. The objective was tested down to 3098.25, and the no-bias environment began firming back up toward its bias-up signal. Now this afternoon's 3124.00 bias-up signal has triggered. Still overlapping it within 3 minutes of the 1:20 bias timing window invoked the grace period through 1:30. Fresh recovery highs triggered late bias-up, targeting 3136.50. Already 3130.00 is now being tested. Getting past the crux of Fed Chair Powell's Congressional testimony was likely to open the door to a more credible trending attempt. Whether or not this succeeds, meeting its target let alone retesting recent highs, the pattern is NOT immune to downdrafts. But a reaction down would still be likelier to recover.

Tuesday afternoon's relatively narrow 3097.00-3128.00 directionless afternoon was likely to persist into Wednesday, unless a bias signal were triggered. Rallying overnight up to 3147.00 was retraced to open Wednesday back within the range. The morning's bias objective was fulfilled by testing the range's lower-end at 3099.00. The afternoon's 3136.50 bias-up target became unfinished business when the range's upper-end was tested only up to 3130.25, which itself left outstanding overbought RSIs requiring a retest. The afternoon returned to the range's lower-end through the 3102.00/3107.00 close. Add Wednesday's unfinished business of 3130.25 and 3136.50 to two others outstanding from the highs: The Island pattern's 3188.00/3197.50 retracement, and its prior Friday's 3159.00 gap up. Already rallying Thursday from the 2-day extended narrow range would be credible neutralizing the higher objectives, but not very reliable for exceeding them. Wednesday session is an example of the difficulty in attracting sponsorship from deep within a wide range. So, the window for breaking higher remains open, and still likelier to develop before a new downleg. A 5-stage pattern that formed into Wednesday's close makes immediate strength Thursday credible for rallying sharply. Having trended down into Wednesday's close, gapping up above the afternoon's 3130.25 high would form a session-long rally. Extending down first would target a retest of Tuesday's 3063.00 low, where simultaneous oversold RSIs require a retest. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3127.25 3116.25 ...would target 3142.00 3131.00 Bias-down: under 3103.75 3092.75 ...would target 3089.50 3078.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.