Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday's late upleg had required a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} correction, which the overnight dip from 3082.00 to 3049.00 fulfilled. But it wasn't exploited by higher highs before Friday's open repeated the correction. Its retest resolved down sharply to retest Wednesday night's 3005.00 low. Its break targeted 2998.00, which was probed down to 2992.50 as the 3:37-3:52 position squaring window opened. The window's volatility ranged choppily flat-to-higher instead of extending lower. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night gapped down under Friday's low to 2983.00-2986.00 in customary reaction to the weekend's rising COVID cases. Both the case growth and their economic impacts are already largely discounted by the market, so quickly reversing to probe positive territory up to 3021.00 wasn't surprising. The gap down also reflects the reaction to a growing list of larger advertisers halting their social media campaigns, while the quick recovery all but confirms that's only temporary. Regardless, the quickly flip from negative to positive has been both temporary and enduring. Price action has ranged choppily through midnight and Europe's opens, from one bias signal and back to the other. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Last night's highs each have stopped 4-7 points short of Friday afternoon's high. Being an overnight construct, any attempt to exploit its ineffectual pessimism would be more reliable if produced before exiting the opening 15 minutes of volatility at 9:45. Even if a session-long rally doesn't form from recovering Friday afternoon's 3024.50 high through the open, bullish Isolation and Globex-flip setups could still form. Otherwise, resuming the decline would target 2981.00 and probably 2966.00 before the next opportunity to retest the 3-week old Island high. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3021.50 would be likely to trigger the 3017.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3011.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 3002.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2997.75 bias-down signal.

Self-limited upside? The pre-open surge up to 3026.50 originated within the too late to break window 60-90 minutes pre-open, which doomed it to failure. Already retracing it to open at 3013.00 deprived us of the luxury of having that edge post-open. That was still plenty of room to form the bullish Isolation and Globex-flip setups. By the same token, not forming them would require quickly retracing back under 3000.00, which was both Friday's cash session close and also Sunday night's earlier Globex high. And an early sell signal under 3008.00 collapsed down to 2988.50. The open's reverses weren't done. Threatening to trigger bias-down under 2997.75 became a late bias-up above 3017.50. Its 3032.50 bias-up target was just probed by more than 1 point. All the buying pressure expended to get here wasn't enough to avoid the post-open dip, which would have triggered the bullish setups. Meeting this target could have also signaled an uptrending morning, if not also a recovery back to this downleg's origin. It's still a bias-up environment so there's no limit to the upside, other than the higher objectives that were ignored. Sellers regaining traction might find little support on the way down to 2966.00.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3045.50 3035.00 ...would target 3059.25 3048.75 Bias-down: under 3030.00 3019.50 ...would target 3017.00 3006.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Hovering at session highs. This morning's 3032.50 bias-up target was met soon after being put into play. Its resistance held through the noon hour as price hovered at the morning's high. A modest surge to fresh highs testing 3037.00 has hovered at or above the morning's high for more than an hour. This afternoon's 3035.00 bias-up signal didn't trigger, invoke the grace period, or invalidate its no-bias. Now surging to fresh highs up to 3040.00 within the next 10 minutes is credible for extending higher, but more reliable when the bias environment is lapsing. Other than perhaps probing higher too late to gain traction, nothing currently suggests the rally is peaking. This morning's origin of the rally is still a concern for not its initial detour that disqualified a couple of more bullish setups. But the trending of higher highs and higher lows will get a benefit of the doubt until rejected.

Monday's on-again / off-again rally was on-again, after Sunday night's rally up to 3026.50 was reversed down to 2988.50 during the open, yet recovered in time to trigger the morning's 3017.50 bias-up. Its 3032.50 bias-up target was overlapped up to 3040.00 by narrow legs through the afternoon no-bias environment. The rally was off-again when another dip fell to 3021.25, but once more on-again by surging to attack 3049.00 through the close. Quarter-end re-balancing and other portfolio window dressing was as credible of a catalyst for the late surge, as it was for inhibiting volatility before the final hour. The likelihood for rallying overnight up to 3048.00 was rendered moot by the last-minute surge already testing it. Similar to weak-handed sponsorship, mechanical influences on price action are often temporary. If Monday's rally only stretched the rubber band, then snapping back down Tuesday wouldn't find much support below, and potential to 2966.00. No PM Traction had been gained, and re-balancing doesn't make the surge's sponsorship strong-handed. Extending higher without delay Tuesday must still gap up. COVID spikes is well discounted, perhaps overly discounted if Monday's rate slowdown is duplicated. Regardless of direction, plenty of econ reports and Fed speakers should keep volatility alive as the holiday-shortened week gets even shorter. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3061.00 3050.50 ...would target 3076.50 3066.00 Bias-down: under 3048.00 3037.50 ...would target 3037.75 3027.25 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.