Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... A lot of buying pressure had been expended quickly. Friday's last-minute surge from 2935.00 up to 2955.00 had gapped up Sunday night to 2970.00 and extended up to 2979.75. It was a "new Globex trend extreme" that required intraday retest, which was likely immediately, but also likely to fail. The open's blip-up to 2981.50 did quickly peak, but held up through the open to create an anchor. That anchor will be needed since price slid to within 1 tick of Friday's closing surge at 2955.50. No credible aggressive buy signal was likely before the bias environment lapses, which finally allowed surging up to 2970.00. Overnight action's new info... A lot of volatility developed overnight. Initially dipping back down to 2960.00, overnight action had recovered well before midnight. Slightly higher highs greeted Europe's opens at 2972.00, where selling resumed aggressively to  attack 2961.00. Now a bounce to 2967.00 is attacking unchanged to within 1 point of yesterday's close. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) "Unfinished business" from Monday afternoon's 2953.00 bias-down target remains outstanding. The target is under a relevant support at 2957.00, which is the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement between Friday's cash session close and Monday's opening gap up. Its retest has room down to 2951.00 before targeting 2948.50 and 2944.50. That attraction below is competing with unfinished business from Monday's opening 2979.25 gap up above all prior highs. It wants to be filled from below now that its reaction has tested "lower prior highs." Extending higher would also maintain the rally next targeting an attack on 3000.00. The latter might be more difficult, especially after noon, as volume quickly evaporates ahead of the holiday. Regardless of direction, be careful trading into that window. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2961.00 would be likely to trigger the 2964.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2970.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. EXTRA... The wrong chart accompanied yesterday's last update, "Mid-day Update… BIAS-DOWN, No credible aggressive buy signal before the bias environment lapses." Here is the correct chart image:

Forming an attraction by only ranging narrowly. The wide overnight range had dipped from 2972.00 fresh highs at Europe's opens, to attack 2961.00 and the earlier overnight low. That was recovered to greet the open flat with yesterday's 2868.00 close. I don't have early entry parameters for flat opens. That is effectively trying to guess at the resolution from a standing stop. Momentum from the pre-open recovery back up to unchanged is irrelevant.

In fact, despite recovering back up to unchanged, the opening several minutes plunged back down to 2963.00. Each bar at the plunge's low was overlapping the 2964.25 bias-down signal. Now we had something to work with -- aggressive trending, intersecting at relevant support.

Ultimately, the bias-down signal's test held to trigger no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2973.00 bias-up signal. There was no particular time frame, or even a requirement to be direct, but the objective was just fulfilled. Now the pattern at the low is repeating, but inverted -- aggressive trending, intersecting at relevant resistance. It's too late for probing the bias-up signal to invalidate the no-bias influence, but it can be probed by no-bias trending that's doomed to failure. Meanwhile, I'll start getting aggressive with a sell signal to participate in the potential reversal. I'll keep repeating this all day, and all week: Beware that trending attempts are unlikely, and unlikely to succeed. Sponsorship is not the strongest-handed, and reactions within a range are likelier.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2967.50 2970.75 ...would target 2974.75 2978.00 Bias-down: under 2960.75 2964.00 ...would target 2955.00 2958.25 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Putin and Pence acting strangely. Having fulfilled its upside objective at the morning's 2973.00 bias-up signal, the balance of the morning's bias environment trended back down to probe the 2963.00 opening low. A 4-1/2 point bounce up to 2967.25 might have intended to extend much higher, but it only reacted down to fresh lows at 2958.50. That was within 1 tick of the afternoon's bias-down target. The catalyst was two seemingly disconnected headlines about Putin and Pence both returning to their capitals unexpectedly. Let the theorizing begin. Meanwhile, the 2967.25 origin of the last drop is now fully retraced. The afternoon's 2964.00 bias-down signal avoided triggering late. Assuming no catastrophic developments in either the Putin or Pence narratives, we should soon learn whether the earlier bounce did intend to extend much higher. Back under 2963.00 would start to signal that a bigger dip is trying to develop.

Already one day away from Wednesday's early close, volume is contracting and trending is becoming much less likely. That doesn't prevent trending attempts -- like Monday night's choppy ranging around its 2968.00 close. I noted during the Market Tour that would be a guide for Tuesday's intraday action, which did only range widely around 2968.00. The morning's eventual surge to fulfill its 2973.00 bias parameter objective held its resistance. More so, its reaction ultimately probed the open's 2963.00 low. Twice. The second probe down to 2958.50 was in reaction to headlines about Putin and Pence's surprise schedule changes. All of which a last-minute surge through the close recovered to probe 7 points above the morning's high up to 2980.00.

Meanwhile, a lot of energy has been expended just to traverse a choppy range without gaining traction either way. Some sort of seemingly substantial trending attempt beyond either end wouldn't be unusual -- Tuesday's late surge may have already started it. It would still likely be retraced, if not also reversed again back to the range's opposite end. Regardless, continue exercising caution being exposed beyond a prior high or prior low. We caught two relatively large intraday moves, but they were reversals back into the range.

Having said that... Tuesday's late surge has now filled the gap to Monday's 2979.25 gap up above all prior highs. Its intraday test is still likely, and could extend to attack 3000.00. Breaking lower would be attracted to Monday afternoon's 2953.00 bias-down target, and its break could reach 2944.50. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2976.50 2979.75 ...would target 2983.25 2986.50 Bias-down: under 2965.50 2968.75 ...would target 2959.00 2962.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.