Stock Market Trading Signals - 07-07-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's post-open attempt to extend the overnight lows was inappropriately-timed. Its weak-handed sponsorship tested 2066.00, before reversing back up through the balance of the session. Eventually testing 2094.00 neutralized the attraction to last Friday's 2093.00 higher prior lows, late enough to avoid reacting down. Overnight action's new info... Flat-to-higher ranging absorbed Europe's weak opens and temporarily probed fresh highs up to 2098.00. Yesterday's late highs are being tested now as support down to 2091.00. If, then... Wednesday's recovery didn't gain traction, despite trending up into the close. So, extending the rally this morning without delay would require gapping up, probably above 2097.00. And having tested 2097.00 already overnight, its 2098.00 should be exceeded quickly, too. Not gapping up, or not maintaining a gap up, would be vulnerable to another pullback -- perhaps briefer and shallower than yesterday -- down to 2082.00.. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2099.50 would be likely to trigger the 2097.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2092.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Modest gap up surges to fresh highs. Gapping up to and/or through yesterday's high was the minimum requirement to assume new sponsorship had arrived to extend yesterday's rally. The 2094.25 opening print qualified. Quickly exceeding the 2098.00 overnight high was less a requirement and more confirmation. Preferably 2099.50 would have been recovered by then, too. It was being tested, on the way up to 2102.00. Overbought RSIs require the high's retest. The 2103.25 bias-up target is in-play. A pullback to 2098.00 has reacted up to 2101.50 and can extend higher so long as 2098.75 continues holding as support.

A high-interest congressional hearing underway currently may be siphoning energy from the market and inhibiting trending. Trending in that situation is more difficult. By the same token, a knee-jerk reaction to other news would be likelier to retrace.

A deeper detour down to 2095.50 can't be discounted. The 2097.00 bias-up signal should define the range's lower-end if tested -- probing under it should be brief and quickly reversed up.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2105.00 2097.50 ...would target  2110.50  2103.25 Bias-down: under  2095.25  2088.00 ...would target 2089.50  2082.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Open's surge turns bad. This morning's 2097.00 bias-up signal triggered. It wasn't rejected at 10:15, when the surge to 2102.00 was consolidating. It was probed soon after, but still held above the 2088.00 bias-down signal that would have rejected it at 11:30. The noon hour and its entry repeatedly tested 2089.75 as support. That has resolved down to fresh lows at 2085.00. The afternoon's 2088.00 bias-down signal has triggered the grace period -- it can be invalidated if recovered through 1:30. Dipping this morning instead of rallying would have had room down to 2082.00 as just a temporary correction. That's still the case, regardless of the open's interim surge. Regardless, this morning's 2103.25 bias-up target became "unfinished business above" that requires being tested eventually.

A funny thing happened on the way to recovery highs... Gapping up just enough to qualify for Thursday's bullish scenario, surging substantially and then triggering bias-up, just couldn't prevent sliding into the noon hour until the final hour. The slide began too late and was too slow to prevent forming "unfinished business above" at the morning's 2103.25 bias-up target. The session's 2082.00 pullback limit didn't require being tested, but it defined the session low anyway. The final hour's bounce attacking 2092.00 held at or under the morning's bias environment lows. The near-term trend hasn't reversed back up. Gapping above the prior session's high would again be bullish, albeit much more difficult Friday. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2104.00 2096.75 ...would target  2110.50  2103.25 Bias-down: under  2092.00  2084.75 ...would target  2086.50  2079.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.