Stock Market Trading Signals - 07-25-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Simply not gapping down Friday was already unlikely to resume Thursday's decline. Greeting the open unchanged around 2058.00, but having pulled back from an overnight rally up to 2165.00, Friday rallied throughout up to 2169.00.. Overnight action's new info... Opening flat Sunday night around 2168.00 eventually surged to fresh highs at 2172.50. That was retraced as quickly, and soon reversed into negative territory. A blip-down testing 2163.75 in reaction to Europe's opens was recovered to 2171.25. That has returned back down to 2168.00 instead of yet extending higher. If, then... The overnight high was not complex, so it was not a "new Globex trend extreme" that would otherwise require intraday retest. But it's likely, anyway. Even without Friday's rally gaining traction, potential remained intact up to 2171.25. Further potential up to 2175.50 became likelier for having absorbed Thursday's detour down to 2153.50 and to compensate for a terror-related event in Munich having inhibited Friday afternoon's rally leg. Not holding last night's low could trigger a morning pullback instead. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2162.00 would be likely to trigger the 2163.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2168.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2171.25 would be likely to trigger the 2169.00 bias-up signal.

Selling satisfied, not rejected. If this morning were to be about backing-and-filling this morning, instead of about retesting overnight highs, then its start was likelier to be aggressive.

And it was. The 2163.75 overnight low was retested during the first 5 minutes. And a downtrending channel formed through the opening 15 minutes.

Breaking lower fulfilled the 2158.00 bias-down target at 10:15, just as the 2163.75 bias-down signal was triggering. There's no grace period for renewing the signal, so this is a bias-down environment whose target has been met. Simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the low require its retest, potentially down to 2156.00 without signaling a deeper drop underway. Back above 2161.50 at any time would start to signal momentum already reversing up. 2158.00 represents the same area as last Tuesday's session-long quicksand struggle. So, exiting the bias environment in rally mode may be necessary to avoid a deeper drop. And the reward may be to retest overnight highs already today.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2167.50 2161.50 ...would target  2173.50  2167.75 Bias-down: under  2161.50  2155.75 ...would target 2156.50  2150.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Lower lows still ranging around morning's target. Despite already having met this morning's 2158.00 bias-down target. oversold RSIs that developed there had required its retest. Its retest had room down to 2156.00. Its retest touched 2156.00 before the morning's bias environment lapsed. Narrow noon hour ranging touched this afternoon's 2155.75 bias-down signal. It held, and reacted up to 2159,25. But the noon hour lapsed back within its 2156.00-2158.00 range. The 2155.75 bias-down signal didn't trigger. This is a no-bias environment, with room for bouncing up to its 2161.50 bias-up signal. An afternoon recovery back to overnight highs isn't assured, but would be difficult to start from any lower any later.

The week began by falling back into the same range as last Tuesday's horrible session. The template behaved the same way this week, with Its quicksand keeping price down for much of the day, and a last-minute recovery lifting out of the range. There is now no bullish reason to revisit Monday's 2156.00-2158.00 lows. Probing lower would intend also to break under last week's lows on the way to a much deeper level. Almost any initial strength Tuesday would be likely to probe fresh intraday highs, retesting Sunday night's highs up to 2171.25  and 2175.50. They don't require intraday retest, but their retest is likely, anyway. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2171.75 2166.00 ...would target  2176.75  2171.00 Bias-down: under  2163.50  2157.75 ...would target 2056.25  2150.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.