Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Similar to late-Monday's concentrated slide that held prior lows down to 3208.00, fresh overnight lows down to 3204.00 had recovered to fresh overnight highs at 3223.50. A post-open downleg was unlikely in that sequence. In fact, the morning's 3233.00 bias-up target was soon met. Unfinished business at 3238.00 was probed up to 3243.00 before the afternoon's FOMC events. Its volatile knee-jerk reaction resolved up to probe the afternoon's bias-up target up to 3254.25. That was also last Thursday's higher prior lows, and its reaction prevented triggering a bullish PM traction setup. Fresh highs eventually reached 3257.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Wednesday's late reaction down to 3245.75 was likely to be temporary. Globex's first minute touched the dip's 3257.00 origin, and immediately reacted down again. But not temporarily. The dip was retraced entirely by midnight. Europe's opens were greeted at 3241.50 where selling accelerated. A half-hour later Wednesday's low was being probed down to 3115.25. a bounce up to 3230.00 has been reversed to a fresh low at 3210.75. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) My pre-open comments Wednesday had noted that greeting FOMC from a position of weakness wouldn't prevent a rally, it would only doom a rally to failure. Wednesday's rally also neutralized upside attractions -- including unfinished business from the prior day's bias objective, and last Thursday's higher prior low. That was 3250.50-3253.50, and closing under it left Wednesday's rally without upside momentum. So, collapsing overnight can be more than just retracing Wednesday's upleg, but also ending the rally. At least the rally from last Thursday's confirmed breakout, still requiring at least one more close under 3291.00, if not also resuming its reversal down altogether. A session-long decline could form by gapping down under yesterday afternoon's 3235.50 low, or by maintaining a break under any lower relevant support through the open. The relentless overnight trending could be bullish only by trending up through the open. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3225.25 would be likely also to exceed the 3228.75 bias-down target and renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3237.50 would at least trigger the 3241.50 bias-down signal.

At least 3 bearish setups trigger. Lower and lower overnight lows each bounced back up to the 3228.75 bias-down target's resistance. And resolved down again. Three setups were in-play, and each resolved bearishly. Relentless overnight trending attracted intraday sponsorship by trending down through the opening 15 minutes. The morning should extend the decline. Opening thrust initially reacted up from testing yesterday's 3220.00 opening low, but ultimately exited the open back under it. Extending under the opening range's 3212.50 low at 10:00 confirmed the trend remains down. Session-long decline gapped down under multiple prior lows, including yesterday's 3220.00 post-open low, and exited the open lower. Each intraday timing window should print under its prior timing window's low, with one window's exception. Also, bias-down was renewed by also exceeding its bias-down target. Any renewed bias-down target is already met, so that's only relevant to bounce limitations. Which the other three bearish setups already dismiss. A bounce did just develop from testing last Friday afternoon's 3196.00 low, but it's likely only obligatory. Otherwise, bBack above 3221.50 would start to suggest a bigger bounce underway.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3241.50 3233.00 ...would target 3252.50 3244.00 Bias-down: under 3225.00 3216.75 ...would target 3212.75 3204.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Weak-handed buyers again? The first hour's test and retest of last Friday afternoon's 3196.00 low offered more powerful support than I expected. Trending back up through the noon hour greeted the afternoon bias environment at 3243.25. Being within 3-6 ticks of the 3244.00 bias-up target, it won't become unfinished business if left outstanding. The session-long decline setup would be invalidated without probing the noon hour's 3222.50 low before entering the final hour, and then extending down from there. A reaction down is holding the 3233.00 bias-up signal as support, which is the neckline of a Head & Shoulders pattern. Its right shoulder is now fully formed, so not reversing down soon probably extends higher instead to fill the gap back up to 3250.50. Meanwhile, the post-close earnings onslaught awaits -- reversals among AMZN, AAPL, FB, and GOOGL took NDX positive, and clearly led the broader market's recovery. Their patterns all track the same multi-session narrow ranges, overlapping the low session's range, not greeting earnings from a position of strength.

Globex declined from Wednesday's 3257.00 high down to 3208.00 and opened Thursday at  3218.00. Trending down through the open, and exiting the open under a relevant low, triggered bearish relentless overnight trending, session-long decline, opening thrust setups. Which were trumped by the first hour's test and retest of last Friday afternoon's 3196.00 prior low. Trending back up through the noon hour held the afternoon's 3244.50 bias-up target as resistance. The afternoon only ranged narrowly sideways, perhaps inhibited by high-profile post-close earnings. Futures rallied up to 3257.00 in reaction to AMZN and FB positive earnings surprises. A cash session close above 3245.50 would have been bullish, but it was only probed by futures. And only as a knee-jerk reaction to headlines. The gap back up to Wednesday's 3250.50 cash session close didn't require being filled, but any attraction to it is now neutralized.

The surge extended even higher to test 3267.00 despite GOOGL's initially favorable earnings reaction turning negative, overshadowed by AAPL's beat and stock-split.

Friday Factors could leverage Thursday's post-close earnings reactions if maintained into Friday's open. But the origin of Thursday's rally is a position of weakness, as the attempted rejection of its bearish setups gained no traction for the effort. Not unlike the context of Wednesday's rally, Thursday's rally and any extension are also likely to fail. And like Wednesday's rally, not already reacting down at Friday's open would be likely to test unfinished business at 3274.00 and 3284.50. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3255.25 3247.00 ...would target 3273.25 3265.00 Bias-down: under 3233.25 3225.25 ...would target 3216.00 3208.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.