CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET) Yesterday's open had isolated the overnight probe of fresh highs, signaling a sentiment shift. "Unfinished business above" was left outstanding at the 2177.75 overnight high. Resolving downside attractions so quickly does make it difficult to attract substantial sponsorship. I'm not convinced this downturn is durable. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.Pre-Open Market Signals - 7:14 AM
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Market Opening Thoughts - 10:41 AM
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A Symmetrical Triangle had formed pre-open. The open was greeted at its 2162.00 upper-end. A 2-point blip-down was reversed immediately into a 2-point blip-up to 2164.00. That last blip was the Triangle's 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} extension. And it held.
Even faster than the blip-up, fresh lows were being probed down to 2158.00 A bigger break lower has extended down to 2150.00.
The 2154.25 bias-down target had been probed, but was still being overlapped at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. That doesn't change this being a bias-down environment. And the next lower objective would be 2147.00-2148.00.
Oversold RSIs at 2150.00 require its retest. They are higher oversolds, so an interim bounce retesting the 2154.25 bias-down target is possible. This morning's trend meanwhile remains down.
Tonight's Day Trading Predictions - 12:00 PM
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Mid-Day Market Thoughts - 1:51 PM
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Market Summary - 4:22 PM
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Tomorrow's Day Trading Predictions - 4:31 PM
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Monday morning's sentiment shift setup still playing-out.
SPECIAL NOTE: MY DEVELOPER IS TESTING INDIVIDUAL USER ACCOUNTS TO RESOLVE THE CHARTROOM LOGIN ISSUE. THIS MIGHT REQUIRE THAT YOU RE-SET YOUR PASSWORD, AGAIN... ONE WAY, OR ANOTHER, THIS ISSUE WILL BE RESOLVED BY TODAY'S CLOSE. THANK YOU FOR BEING PATIENT!
TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2157.25
2151.25
...would target
2163.25
2157.25
Bias-down: under
2149.50
2143.50
...would target
2143.25
2137.25
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN INVALIDATED
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Extended decline is neutralizing many attractions.
Prior to today, the only required downside was a retest of Thursday's 2153.50 low. The next lower objective under it was 2147.00-2148.00 This morning's bias environment tested 2145.00, and the noon hour's exit touched 2141.50.
The last two lows weren't required to be tested. But selling pressure has been expended to test them, anyway. A clue to sellers becoming expended is this afternoon's bias-down that was invalidated -- triggering its 2143.50 signal by only 1 tick, and recovering back above it through 1:30.
Exiting the bias environment back above 2147.00-2148.00 would suggest that selling pressure is satisfied. Back above 2151.25 would start signaling momentum is reversing up. Meanwhile, the trend remains down, and fresh lows would next target the 2137.00 area.
Tuesday's close was testing Thursday's 2153.50 low. Remember Thursday's low? Its test became required after Friday's probe above Thursday's highs, despite Thursday's rally not having gained traction. Retracing Thursday's rally was the consequence to probing above it prematurely, and now that consequence is neutralized.
Anyway, Thursday's low has held its test through the close. Its test wasn't rejected, which would have required closing back above another relevant level. But a lot of extra selling pressure was expended down to 2141.50, and absorbed.
Retesting 2141.50 through Wednesday morning can't be dismissed, especially with oversold RSIs there requiring it eventually -- and especially if not already rallying pre-open. But maintaining a gap up could instead become focused on retesting Sunday night's 2177.75 high before resuming a much larger decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2161.50
2155.50
...would target
2166.75
2160.75
Bias-down: under
2156.75
2146.75
...would target
2147.00
2141.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.