Stock Market Trading Signals - 08-18-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday's open had firmed to test 2463.00 before resuming Wednesday afternoon's decline from its 2474.00 high. Thursday's close retested last Thursday's 2430.25 overnight lows down to 2427.75 before the close. Trending into the morning and afternoon bias environment exits were predictive in two different ways. The interim bounce was confirmed as being only a correction, leaving no "unfinished business above.". Overnight action's new info... The intraday drop extended immediately to fill the 3-week old gap back down to my 2425.25 objective, probing it by 6 ticks. The Globex open began firming, and extended up to 2434.00 during Asia's opens. Hovering for several hours was supported by last Thursday night's 2430.25 overnight low. But the fear of Europe's opens started breaking under that range. The break attacked the earlier lows down to 2424.25, which has reacted again by testing 2430.25 as resistance. If, then... Gapping up like last Friday isn't being attempted this near the open, so it probably isn't going to happen. Probing lower post-open is almost obligatory at this stage of the pattern, having punished last week's buyers for impatiently preventing a retest of overnight lows. An intraday test of the long-standing 2425.25 is likely, too, and avoiding it would suggest that buyers are behaving impatiently again. Firming is still possible, and likely if an obligatory fresh low is avoided. Firming might resemble stability, but it would be only anxiousness, still doomed to resolve down. The bearish WedEX's influence this afternoon suggests another interesting day regardless. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2431.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2434.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2431.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2426.25 bias-down signal. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome strangest a little bit late 10 or 15 minutes late here so really this will be brief I mean there's already one possible resolution to yesterday's big plunge that is off the table I don't know if you remember yesterday there was a big Plunge is it was set up because the prior week's pivot reversal session that told us we were heading down and heading down quickly for substantial for multiple multiple sessions for substantial to substantial degree had been retraced starting Monday and retraced in a in the wrong way and other words there were overnight lows Thursday last Thursday night it hadn't been rested intraday on Friday really nothing that will keep me lative activity Friday and yet all the sudden Monday was gapping up in Monday gapped up and that told us much more certainly that this what even though it already stopped short of its objective 2425 gapping up told us that was very likely a corrective bounce its objectives at least 2463 and if 2463 didn't launch the next down leg than 2471 7350 basically back here this Gap would be the would be the launch and so actually that Gap was tested overnight last this Tuesday night it was tested intraday on Wednesday and in both cases held and as expected Wednesday and push price back down and then Thursday we're in this decline so just to point out this is the first day of a break out from a multi-session range Thursday was the first day of a break out from a multi-session range so today has the pressure of potentially being confirmation a break at is interesting but it still needs to be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close today and it isn't always last week's was not in fact Thursday was a break out last week as well then Friday didn't confirm so it has that when we get to similar setups sequentially so two Thursdays in a row with basically plunge Lowe's they tend to resolve differently so Friday last Friday resolved without probing of French low with a true testing the overnight lows and last night probably little bit lower and then by the way resolved up on Monday this week this Friday unlikely to duplicate last Friday unlikely to avoid retesting overnight lows unlikely to produce lead that is to a quick of rally so that Plunge and any after that there are permutations as well if we if we know or have reason to expect at least an obligatory fresh little because last week already punished so close in such near term memory last week's aggressive and patient buyers that created at corrective balance already been punished by retracing all the way back down to last week and through last week slows then we're unlikely to see that activity again which is one reason why I kept up was unlikely also likely to see the overnight Action Pro so it's going to be difficult to be a buyer without seeing fresh loves without testing also 24 25 24 25 25 the the long-standing objective remember that being the Gap filling but now off to the left here the Gap that was outstanding you can barely see that back here but it's not quite and town this morning and further this afternoon essentially the burden of proof is on buyers and we'll be looking for evidence because bounces in this kind of environment can be sharp even if they can be and they can be substantial even if they can peek short of their objectives but the likelihood is down alright any questions let me know.

Consolidating under yesterday's lows. One final attack on the 2434.00 overnight high one hour before the open was enough. Fresh lows post-open were likely, so the selling resumed. Sliding into and out of the open greeted it at the 2426.25 bias-down signal, and extended down to 2419.50. The 2421.00 bias-down target was influential along the way, A bounce attacked 2428.00 and almost rejected both bias-down parameters. The grace period was invoked, but not exploited. This is a lat4e bias-down environment. Already having tested the 2421.00 bias-down target its retest isn't required. By the same token, being a bias-down environment, the bias-down target need not support the range's lower-end. I would still expect a break lower at any time to extend. The next lower objective is 2411.75. Otherwise, hovering at, under or around the 2426.25 bias-down signal until the bias environment begins lapsing could still rally. It's not likely, especially without the hovering. Also, this afternoon's bearish WedEX suggests otherwise, too. But nothing on expiration Friday protects against counter-trend moves, no matter how temporary they may prove.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2435.75 2434.50 ...would target  2442.25 2441.00 Bias-down: under 2429.25 2428.00 ...would target 2423.75 2422.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Noon hour probes fresh highs. Any buyers left? It's now Friday afternoon. The bearish WedEX influence should be obvious during this window. Either by price dropping, or by a test of resistance being retraced. The bounce off this morning's lows injected a lot of optimism. Drifting lower to deflate it, simply as noise, would still be a downward bias. But it wouldn't be the bearish influence that the signal suggests.

The open's 2419.50 low was attacked to within 1 point as the bias environment lapsing came within view. That coincided with rumors of Trump firing Bannon, triggering a rally up to 2431.50 into the actual bias environment lapse at 11:30. The news was confirmed and the rally extended into the noon hour up to 2435.50. That's bullish. Indeed, the noon hour probed higher to 2439.50.

But this afternoon's 2434.50 bias-up signal didn't trigger. And the afternoon's bearish WedEX is now influential. The reaction down from session highs is testing 2430.00. Back above 2436.50 would start to signal momentum reversing up, and leave only one bearish opportunity to react down from retesting the noon hour's 2439.50 high. The trend is otherwise down.

"Will they, or won't they" test Thursday night lows was answered without delay Friday, by sliding into and out of the open to fresh lows at 2419.50. The longstanding attraction to 2425.25 was fulfilled along the way. The entire morning consolidated under last Thursday's 2430.50 overnight low. That's an anchor. Rallying into and out of the bias environment lapsing was extended to a noon hour high at 2439.50. Expending so much buying pressure so quickly made it easy for the WedEX's bearish influence. But it didn't ensure it. The afternoon bias environment was entered already back under 2432.00 and probed 4 points lower. Another 4 points lower to 2424.00 were probed into the close. Friday Factors weren't necessarily bullish. The morning's drop was not a failed attempt to trend down, having formed an anchor. That didn't ensure its retest intraday, let alone its break. But the effort applied to avoiding its test only expended buying pressure without gaining any traction for the effort. And ultimately, closing action dipped into Meanwhile, the bearish WedEX was influential Friday afternoon. So, we assume it will be influential Monday morning -- often, much more so. We'll discuss that in greater detail during this weekend's Saturday Review. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

JOIN US AT 9:30AM ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW. WE'LL DISCUSS THE BIGGER PICTURE AND MONDAY'S OPENING STRATEGY. YOU CAN REQUEST INSTANT ANALYSIS OF ANY CHART. THE LINK WILL BE SENT IN THE MORNING.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2431.25 2430.00 ...would target  2436.25 2435.25 Bias-down: under 2422.25 2421.25 ...would target 2415.50 2414.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.