Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Slightly higher overnight highs had once again filled the void of unfinished business to help attract price higher Wednesday. Opening under prior highs had inhibited the rally's momentum, so delaying the overnight high's test limited it to the morning's 3395.00 bias-up signal. The impending FOMC Minutes inhibited extending any higher. A delayed reaction slid sharply through the close down to 3365.50 -- coming to within 1 tick of Tuesday's oversold RSIs. Tuesday's breakout attempt not only avoided confirmation, but was also rejected. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Globex's first hour ranged narrowly under Wednesday's 3372.00-3373.00 close before duplicating the afternoon's slide. The 3345.00 low was already being retraced by midnight, up to 3364.50 through Europe's opens. A 15-point reaction down has now recovered fully to test 3368.00, probing back above yesterday's lows. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Last night's low was the lowest since gapping up from the Tuesday afternoon double-barreled headline reactions. That was the extended slide which was never probed any lower as would have been usual, which doomed its recovery to failure. A lot of buying pressure was expended to delay its failure, while leaving no unfinished business to guide this reversal back up. All of which has formed the most opportunistic setup for a deeper reversal to develop. So, now having tried to reverse is putting the burden of proof on sellers to actually gain traction for their effort. Optimism isn't dead, yet -- Yesterday's slide stopped at the prior day's low, which is already being recovered overnight after probing under four prior days' lows. Recovering positive territory through the open could trigger a massive morning short-squeeze. Almost any other early behavior would allow the decline to resume. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3370.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3363.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3360.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Now probing positive territory. The last pre-open bounce up to 3368.00 reacted down 17 points, similar to the prior overnight bounce's 15-point reaction. The open's attack to within 3 ticks of the 3350.50 bias-down target reversed up sharply. The 3363.50 bias-down signal was recovered to avoid triggering, which puts into play an offsetting test of its 3378.00 bias-up signal. No post-open test of the bias-down target means it wasn't rejected, so an offfsetting test of the 3389.00 bias-up target is not required. Natural resistance at yesterday's 3372.00-3372.00 close has limited the recovery to 3374.50. An interim dip to 3367.50 is being retested, with room down to 3366.00 before starting to signal any deeper reversal underway. Back above 3372.00 would signal the recovery attempt remains in-play.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3381.00 signal would target 3390.75. BIAS-DOWN: under 3366.00 signal would target 3357.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3385.00 3381.00 ...would target 3394.75 3390.75 Bias-down: under 3369.75 3366.00 ...would target 3361.25 3357.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Flat-to-lower since meeting this morning's target. Recovering this morning's 3363.50 bias-down target through 10:15 had put into play an offsetting test of its 3378.00 bias-up signal. It was attacked to within 2 ticks just before noon. Dipping through noon down to 3370.50 avoided touching either bias signal. The no-bias environment should hold a test of either 3366.00-3381.00 signal if tested. This is the only bias rule in-play until the window begins lapsing. In addition to being no-bias, momentum is being undermined by also fluctuating around unchanged. The post-open rally's last three highs each overlapped yesterday's 3372.00-3373.00 close. So did the noon hour's reaction down. The balance of the session isn't required to resolve in either direction. But resolving down isn't likely to be only backing-and-filling, and would more likely resume the decline begun from yesterday's high.  Meanwhile, today's bounce has room up to 3383.00-3384.00 before suggesting a retest of yesterday's high.

Wednesday afternoon's collapse from its 3395.75 new high down to 3365.50 probed deeper down to 3344.75 -- under 6 prior sessions' lows. Already recovering before midnight had extended up to 3368.00. Dipping into the 3352.75 open was recovered well into positive territory up to 3387.00. No new unfinished business was left outstanding. A bullish PM Traction setup formed by exiting Thursday's afternoon's bias environment above its noon hour high and entering the final hour higher. Friday morning's bias environment should trend up. Meanwhile, three consecutive sessions of expanding ranges are greeting Friday's expiration. This tends to ensure the session will be volatile, whether trending sharply or reversing sharply from early trending. Before Thursday's open I had noted several conditions suggesting optimism wasn't yet dead. Rallying throughout the day both proves the point, and adds to it. The overnight drop's low coming before midnight suggests the dip was too brief to be a constructive correction that otherwise traps a lot of weak-handed sellers. Nothing protects against reversing back down, even after extending Thursday's recovery Friday morning. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3388.00 signal would target 3402.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3373.50 signal would target 3361.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3392.00 3388.00 ...would target 3406.50 3402.50 Bias-down: under 3377.25 3373.50 ...would target 3365.50 3361.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.