Stock Market Trading Signals - 08-22-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday's opening probe under Friday's low and the overnight low down to 2415.75 didn't spend the morning under pressure. It was recovered up to 2429.50 at the noon hour's high. Another shallower dip to 2422.75 was recovered almost entirely into the close. But no relevant level was recovered through a relevant timing window. The morning's 2414.25 bias-down target became "unfinished business below." Overnight action's new info... Surging into Asia's opens was extended up to 2434.50 and consolidated back down to 2432.00. Later rallying ahead of Europe's opens up to 2437.25 was retraced much faster back down to its 2432.00 origin. And eventually lower to touch yesterday's 2429.50 noon hour high. Bounces have been trying to chip away at 2432.00 resistance. . If, then... Retracing Monday's opening dip doesn't equate to rejecting it. Extending higher overnight doesn't equate to reversing the trend. But yesterday's bounce still has potential to extend up to Friday morning's 2439.50 high as described yesterday morning. Last night's rally did create a lot of room to expend selling pressure without yet reversing back down, and even the 8-point drop from overnight highs has remained in positive territory. It is difficult to sell this pattern in positive territory this morning. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2432.00 would be likely to trigger the 2430.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2427.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome it is Tuesday at Sanford Tuesday's morning market tour it's been all positive territory overnight and that even includes this 8-point drop it's one of the benefits of a rally is it creates room to expand its selling pressure without that selling pressure damaging the charter damagingly pattern the rally getting that selling pressure out of the way so buyers can resume seems to be what's going on yesterday had begun by probing meet Lee prepping the overnight low Friday's low but only briefly back when the by its environment began the probe under Friday's low is already been recovered or on the cusp and extended hire through the bias environment lapsing and into the new towers high again. Necessarily bullish but creating room to absorb sewing pressure before I could damage the chart and it did allow at 6184 traisman back to the tip the back to the Crux of it Dad has extended higher overnight and held up through the afternoon but it didn't recover yesterday any relevant level that was going to indicate momentum It reversed are the trending River stuff that is extending higher initially overnight this is last night ages opens then consolidating hovering here this is not your UPS opens its anticipating your UPS opens which was interesting because your abs opens while they fought for avoided extending a three-day losing streak that's really why overnight and rallied didn't extend and maintain on that and right back down but then again that's eight points of selling pressure and still in positive territory at the low 2925 so well into positive territory sideways I fully expected to feel it's probably what happens what the objective is that is so long as positive territory is maintained we may even be higher than this as we get into the open but that is the pattern that's under way corrective bounce weather in 24 40 or higher and there's overnights line is a correction I look at the markets so I'll see not extending but it does have room up to 7965 before suggesting something more substantial is underway then just a corrective belts the pound stopping short again 120 935 in order to react town that's a fresh low when 2820 I'm going to be able to lower the Buy Signal on that but it's not something I would buy them this year you see how it's playing out I want to see the clothes if the clothes can recover back above say 128 75 then 12875 to 129 then I would consider this to be bottoming basing at least and preparing to launch recovery it's really the only set up that is half formed little even close to fully formed in the pound Moody which is come up to resistance at 7965 testing an overnight and having tested it at all back under and 7915 7920 would reverse momentum down and finally the Euro which it filled a gap here another Gap that's after filling the Gap back to Wednesdays close on Friday basically extended hired and fill the prior Friday's close that really getting any follow-through to that but perhaps as Testament to that Gap fill being durable reacting Back Down Under 118 back down to one 1765 which even though it's a cell signal you can see the support here it is influential produced brakes but nothing really durable yet or substantial silver has no unfinished does not require gold that being stocks falling apart well look at if we get to 2440 early crude oil seemingly resuming its decline I'm switch cover or rolled coverage for it in the blog to October but you can see just as last reference point 4047 75 or newing the brake lower after 4875 held the bounce all fluctuating around the 4825 cell signal that it previously treated and previously been productive down to 4645 basically almost that's all bases sap and a bouncing overnight back to the 4775 level so basic screwed there's not a big difference about a $0.20 premium bases crude are outside basis October October bases so long as 45 continues to hold as resistance the decline has resumed having held a bounce 249 or and 4895 and then still all while circulating around or fluctuate fluctuating around that 4825 4845 that's going to be the big Line in the Sand now but a second consecutive lower clothes under 4795 preferably under yellow would help to confirm that a retest of the losses in play reports after today's close but this is not a position of strength .

Open's surge fulfills buying pressure. When yesterday's open had fluctuated entirely around Friday's 2424.50 close, we knew that a probe of fresh lows might be short-lived. In fact, diving to 2415.75 was retraced entirely. We also knew that retracing a probe of fresh lows could extend back up to Friday morning's 2439.50 high. Which it just did. And then some. This morning's Market Tour had also discussed the overnight rally to 2437.50 and its pullback to the 2430.00 bias-up signal. It was likely to extend this morning -- and probably not wait for the open. It did recover up to 2436.00 and the 2433.00 open surged to the 2441.50 renewed bias-up target. All before triggering bias-up. Now room for noise at 2443.00 has been tested. RSIs diverged negatively. Back under 2440.25 would start to signal at least a corrective dip to 2435.75, or something more substantial since the bias-up environment and its protection will have lapsed. But there's still an ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows. and the rally is otherwise next targeting 2446.00.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2449.75 2448.50 ...would target 2454.25 2453.25 Bias-down: under 2442.25 2441.25 ...would target 2437.25 2436.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Hovering at resistance. This morning's bias environment fulfilled the retest of Friday morning's 2439.50 high. Actually, the open's surge did that. The bias environment extended up to 2445.25. Rallying again at the bias environment's 11:30 lapsing was bullish, and the noon hour extended up to 2448.50. 2448.50 is the afternoon bias-up signal. It didn't trigger. But two reactions down were recovered entirely. Often, that resolves up anyway when the bias environment begins lapsing -- whether or not durably. This morning's doubly-renewed bias-up target was 2446.00. So long as it holds pullbacks during the bias environment, at least an obligatory fresh high is likely. And it would likely touch 2450.75, regardless of its resolution from there. Back under 2445.00 would instead start signaling momentum already reversing down.

Monday's choppy open had set into motion a series of conditions, each of which has developed through Tuesday's rally. Monday morning's temporary probe of fresh lows at 2415.75, and extending its recovery through Tuesday's opening retest of Friday morning's 2439.50 high, tracked the basic template. Not being rejected early kept the door open to rallying late. Which was done up to 2454.00. Steep and relentless upside are common characteristics of counter-trending. The counter-trend's actual size is relevant only to the leg it is correcting. So, whether rallying 38 points is a lot or a little matters far less than Tuesday retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the last downleg (from Wednesday's 2474.00 high). Another interesting feature to Tuesday's rally was its sponsorship. The open triggered a buy signal at 2435.00 and never looked back. There was no constructive backing-and-filling, or other tactics typically employed by a rally to refuel buyers. It's less a characteristic of a correction, and more an accident waiting to happen. Regardless, reversing down still requires an actual sell signal to trigger, and there's room down to 2438.00 before confirming a new downleg is underway. Meanwhile, the corrective rally is otherwise free to extend higher, next targeting 2461.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2455.50 2454.50 ...would target 2462.00 2461.00 Bias-down: under 2447.00 2446.00 ...would target 2441.75 2440.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.