Stock Market Trading Signals - 08-24-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday's gap up almost immediately neutralized any "unfinished business above," essentially from last Monday. The gap back up to last Monday's 2187.00 close was filled at Tuesday's open, and last Monday's 2190.75 high 's high was pierced several minutes later. The balance of the session drifted back down, closing at a fresh session low, which was also last Monday's 2185.00 opening print. Overnight action's new info... Tuesday's intraday slide eventually resumed, extending to fresh lows at 2180.75 into Europe's opens. That essentially fills the gap back down to Monday's close, testing Friday-Monday's 2182.00-2184.25 "lower prior highs" as support. Price action since then has rallied to attack 2188.00. If, then... Tuesday's session was a breakout above a three-session range. Essentially being contained within last Monday's range undermines the breakout. Closing today above yesterday's high might otherwise confirm the breakout, but that would be undermined, too. The rally would still get a benefit of the doubt, having recovered from the overnight dip back down to lower prior highs -- more so, if the overnight dip were isolated by not revisiting any part of it post-open. There is otherwise no unfinished business above to prevent launching a credible new downleg at any time. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2184.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2182.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2180.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2190.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Overnight low probed. The open was greeted by already probing back under yesterday's late 2185.00 low. Its overnight probe would not be isolated, which would have been bullish. Rather, its retracement would be likely, which could be bearish. And it has been retraced, piercing its low down to 2180.50. Isolating its retest to the open could have ended the decline from yesterday's opening surge. Outlasting the open has instead triggered bias-down under 2182.75. Its 2177.00 bias-down target is in-play. Fresh lows just touched 2178.25. Extending under 2177.00 through a relevant timing window (e.g. entering the noon hour any lower) would start to suggest the topping pattern we've been tracking is unfolding. Until then, it's still possible for the drop from yesterday's open to be the correction along the way to new highs.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2187.75  2185.75 ...would target  2193.00  2191.00 Bias-down: under  2179.00 2177.00 ...would target  2172.75  2170.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

REMINDER: I will be away from the screens on the afternoons of both Thursday and Friday, this week and next, Thank you for allowing me to be of personal assistance in a family matter. This morning's 2177.00 bias-down target became "unfinished business below" that will require being tested intraday. Not necessarily today. Reacting up 5 points from 2178.25 through the noon hour has dipped back down to 2180.50. This being a no-bias environment, its 2177.00-2185.75 bias signals should try to contain trending if tested. Meanwhile, either signal can be tested, which would be triggered back under 2180.50 or back above 2182.25. Trending after the bias environment lapses should either reject this morning's drop, or else extend it. Bouncing into the close wouldn't necessarily prevent another drop tomorrow. But dropping into the close would be likely to extend.

Wednesday's last-minute 7-point bounce peaked 1 point short of 2177.00. Its recovery would have kept alive potential for the drop from Tuesday morning's high to have been only a correction, prior to resuming the rally. Closing under 2177.00 instead suggests the drop has been the beginning of the end, completing the massive topping pattern we've been monitoring. Having failed to close back above 2177.00, recovery potential can be reinstated by gapping back up above the 2180.50-2181.25 area. That wouldn't ensure new highs, and would remain vulnerable to attempting another downleg. Wednesday's attempt at a new downleg is still subject to confirmation from a second consecutive lower close. The Schrödinger's cat setup. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2180.75  2178.75 ...would target  2186.25  2184.25 Bias-down: under  2173.50 2171.50 ...would target 2168.25 2166.25 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.