Stock Market Trading Signals - 08-25-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... After quickly dipping to test critical support at 2438.00, rallying overnight had ensured Thursday's open would test 2446.50. Recovering it, or not, would dictate the next significant leg. It held, along with a test of Wednesday's 2448.50 prior high. Reacting down sharply through the morning pierced the overnight low by 3 ticks down to 2434.50.Bouncing back up to 2444.25 was retraced to test and retest 2438.00 through the cash session close. Overnight action's new info... Bouncing into Thursday's futures close extended back up to the afternoon's 2444.25 high and held again. The afternoon's range persisted through the night, attacking and retesting 2438.00. Until a headline triggered a surge that is now attacking 2448.00 (remarks from Trump official Cohn promising tax reform this year). If, then... Will today be a case of good cop / bad cop? Wednesday's inability to rally above a relevant level had warned us of the deeper dip coming Thursday. Thursday's repeated inability has issued the same warning, but also the offer that gapping up can rally into the weekend. The relevant levels were irrelevant until Cohn's headline hit overnight. Will Yellen headlines spoil the effect? Lifting the embargo on her remarks isn't due until post-open -- extending the past two sessions' anxiousness would undermine a gap up. Her actual remarks would end that anxiousness, but probably not favorably if a gap up wasn't maintained. Either way is significant, because Friday morning biases tend to extend through the noon hour. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2446.50 would be likely to trigger the 2443.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2441.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2438.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2434.00 bias-down signal. Phonetic dictation... good morning welcome it is Friday at Sanford Friday's morning market tour and little late action here in that Gary Cohn Trump Administration are they having the Trump Administration presumably as promising tax reform by the end of the year and of course and is liking it here and one other way to phrase that has now liked it it's already worked its way into the market so unless somebody else is going to reiterate that there is that a fact it's done and it's capable of having an effect that is irrelevant the fact that is to maintain a gap up above yesterday afternoon 4444 25 high that in itself not reliable enough but gapping up and extending preferably above the mornings 4650 High least would then not really but would probably or at least I would give it is to break out to today's highs and resume the rally and if we can get it done she was on the East Coast what that is because you know one day one here after Tuesday's huge rally we got to pull back that just couldn't complete and couldn't close above irrelevant level telling us that we were going to head lower 238 which we did yesterday which all the 38 held which is the only reason why we can look for upside today it didn't produce the clothes above irrelevant level and if we're not gapping up today as is indicated currently has could be wiped out by anxiousness again ahead of you on if not I'll reaction to her remarks which otherwise aren't coming until after they open if we don't Gap up today this morning to get out of this morass then the next lower level where will go to be looking for buyers is 2429 and if 2429 doesn't hold then basically we fall off the face of the Earth and and go twenty four 12in sub 2400 so there's the reasons why we want to be concerned with whether or not we can maintain a gap up let alone whether or not her remarks are released early but technically catalysts technically against get out of Lowe's retested in the case of silver down to 1690 and again didn't recover a relevant level and again is bouncing to test relevant resistant 1705 absent to close above 1705 on Silver we still are at least anticipating a retest of 1690 if not a break lower here's gold somewhat similarly just tested 1288 didn't retest it yesterday but again hasn't had any kind of reaction above irrelevant level long Bond kind of boring here but yesterday did not confirm didn't provide a second consecutive higher close to confirm Wednesday's breakout didn't reject it but didn't confirm it so room for a pullback before resuming the rally 155 22 the deeper pull back it's likely or unlikely or the longer and longer of the breakout fails to extend but in any case that Gap back down to Tuesday's close should not be filled in a bullish scenario there shouldn't be that much weakness get the patterns boys crude oil which did react down from relevant resistance is firming overnight but right back up to Rovan resistance are almost 4795 much more relevant than 75 but so long as it holds still looking for the pattern roll over and finally Natural Gas is dipping a little back to the break a point of this down trending resistance that despite gapping up above with the story that is certainly threatening Supply and the Gulf of Mexico right now with the hurricane closing in bearing down couldn't explain anything more substantial so it can't today.

Gap up maintained, extended too late. The pre-open extension up to 2449.00 had reacted down 3 points to open at 2446.50. The first 15 minutes of volatility ranged there narrowly, only maintaining the gap up but not extending it higher. Soon it was learned that Yellen isn't discussing monetary policy. Extending higher -- perhaps in relief -- had become too late to reflect new sponsorship. Filling the gap back up to Tuesday's 2451.50 close has extended to attack Tuesday's 2453.75 high.

The renewed bias-up signal has essentially fulfilled its renewed bias-up target. It's still a bias-up environment which can extend higher to 2457.50. But not extending during the open has made Tuesday's high likelier to hold as resistance.

So, Yellen isn't discussing monetary policy. But the ECB's Draghi speaks this afternoon, and there's no history of self-restraint on the topic. Could that renew the anxiousness that prevented rallying over the past two sessions?

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2448.75 2447.75 ...would target 2455.50  2454.50 Bias-down: under 2442.50  2441.50 ...would target 2436.00  2435.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning rally rejected. Not yet extending the gap up during the opening 15 minutes wouldn't prevent extending it anyway. It would only doom the extension to failure. Which is what happened when gapping up to 2446.50 was only maintained, through 9:45, before surging to 2453.50. The bias environment lapsing at 11:30 was probing under the open's print down to 2441.00. Bouncing through the noon hour came within 1 tick of this afternoon's 2447.75 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment. It has room down to the 2441.50 bias-down signal. Or, hovering at or just under the bias-up signal could still break higher later. ECB's Mario Draghi speaks at 3:00. He's a reliable catalyst for injecting volatility into the market. Greeting his remarks from back under 2443.00-2444.25 would be likely to extend down into the weekend. Otherwise, a similarly favorable reaction would be likely from above 2448.50.

Friday afternoon's 2447.75 bias-up signal defined the no-bias environment's upper-end. Touching it held through the window lapsing. The ECB's Draghi started speaking and shook price loose. A blip-up to 2449.50 stretched the rubber band to snap back down into the close. Dropping to 2441.50 actually went out testing 2443.00, avoiding any signal. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Join us this weekend for the Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET. Your link will arrive by email in the morning.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2448.25 2447.25 ...would target  2454.25  2453.50 Bias-down: under  2440.50  2439.75 ...would target 2435.00  2434.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.