Stock Market Trading Signals - 09-09-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday's gap up to 1952.00 greeted the holiday-shortened week with extreme sentiment. That became a sentiment extreme that required dipping to 1944.00... which the morning promptly fulfilled. Having offset the earlier optimism with a quick dose of pessimism, the rally resumed gradually. Buyers gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour's high and entering the final hour higher. The rally extended through the 1961.00 overnight high to 1968.75, closing under the session's 1967.25 target. Overnight action's new info... The rally soon resumed overnight and extended relentlessly to 1987.50 into Europe's opens. Trying to resume the rally surged to 1992.00, only to react down to 1982.00. Now 1987.50 is being retested. If, then... Yesterday afternoon's buyers had gained traction, but were already rewarded by then fulfilling the session's 1967.25 target without closing above it. Not extending higher overnight would have meant reversing down sharply this morning. Having extended higher overnight -- no matter how substantially -- the rally should be immune to reversing down. This morning's bias environment is likely to trend even higher, but pulling back instead would then be likely to recover and extend higher this afternoon. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1981.50 would be likely also to exceed the 1976.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 1986.00. Exiting the open above 1986.00 would be likely to further renew the signal, next targeting 1996.00. Exiting the open under 1973.00 would be unlikely to recover 1976.50 through 10:15.

Resuming the rally immediately post-open would have been credible for extending higher throughout the morning. Backing-and filling to lower levels was unlikely to begin quickly. Ranging around the 1986.00 open barely managed an errant tick above 1987.25 before reversing down sharply. The reversal down extended. And extended. Despite having probed it overnight by 16 points, this morning's 19676.25 bias-up target was being tested as support at 10:15. The bias-up signal was not renewed. And now the 1968.50 bias-up signal is being tested as support by 1 point. Yesterday's gap up reacted down, too, but held well above the prior session's range. This morning's reaction down has tested yesterday's highs. Can today's reaction down still recover to probe the 1992.00 overnight high like yesterday? That's still the premise, since yesterday's buyers gained traction for their effort. And now rewarding them this morning makes an afternoon reward likely. Exiting the bias environment under this morning's 1968.50 bias-up signal would invalidate that reward.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1975.50 1974.00 ...would target  1980.75  1979.50 Bias-down: under  1965.75  1964.50 ...would target  1961.25  1959.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Wednesday's gap down immediately began failing to exploit Tuesday's firming, which had avoided confirming any prior breakout. Reversing up almost immediately does barely qualify as exploiting the recent stability. But there is no time left for a bullish pattern to delay extending higher. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Having tested the 1125.70 bounce limit at Tuesday's high, the decline was free to resume Wednesday, which it did aggressively by falling to new lows testing 1100.00. Extending under 1098.40 would require new lows under 1078.00. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Still delaying the gap-fill back down to 14.35 despite Gold now tumbling makes the pattern even less decipherable, and less interesting to trade without it first resolving that issue. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Extending Tuesday's 154-17 sell signal gapped down Wednesday to fresh lows testing 152-14. That was recovered as stocks fell, back into positive territory probing 10 ticks above the 154-17 sell signal. The sell signal was not confirmed, but retesting Wednesday's gap open at 153-14 would help a recovery attempt to extend higher intraday. Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Sliding only slightly Wednesday to 44.10 still managed to probe under Tuesday's low. Now there's a timing requirement to begin probing fresh highs above 50.00, as any aggressive weakness Thursday would be credible for extending down. Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Still bouncing within its recent narrow range is greeting Thursday's EIA report from the range's lower-end, but still within the range. That's still not an enviable position of strength, unable to avoid an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down. But recovering a reaction down that originated within the channel would help to form a bottom.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1950.00 1939.50 ...would target  1955.75 1945.50 Bias-down: under  1938.75  1928.50 ...would target 1932.25  1922.75 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.