Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday's gap down ended a rocky night that had initially rallied Monday night to 2985.00. But the open easily broke under 2972.00-2973.00 and extended down sharply to 2957.25. A "session-long decline" setup was thwarted by a China trade headline that triggered a bounce to 2975.50. Its reaction got to only 2963.00 before the last half-hour surged to attack 2980.00 -- essentially unchanged from Monday's close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Globex initially retraced the late surge back down to 2972.00, which was recovered back up to 2980.50 by midnight. Spiking up to 2987.00 in reaction to a China trade headline (easing tariffs) was retraced in an hour. Choppiness through Europe's opens continued pulling back into negative territory at 2975.50, now bouncing to unchanged. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Recovering 2972.00-2973.00 before coming to within 3 minutes of Tuesday's cash session close made closing above it more relevant to rejecting the open's break under it. But it must be confirmed, at least by immediately extending through its 2980.00 at Wednesday's open, which is still only being attempted overnight. Rallying might encounter difficulty at 2986.50 recent highs, but could resume the rally to 2997.75 and 3014.00-3016.50. Opening back under 2972.00-2973.00 would likely resume the decline next targeting 2955.50 and 2949.00. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2980.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2981.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2984.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Target already met. Bias-up triggered after absorbing a significant post-open challenge. The pre-open recovery to 2984.25 had drifted to the 2982.00 open. Where price suddenly collapsed down to 2974.75. Almost identical to yesterday's opening action, except for its context -- yesterday's pre-open bounce came off of a deeper slide. That contextual difference isn't itself a signal. But it makes the post-open collapse more suspicious for only correcting overnight buying, and not for reversing it. Extending down would be credible, but meanwhile vulnerable to recovering. And the open's collapse was recovered entirely, as quickly as it had developed. Price action since then has been essentially a formality. Attacking the overnight high, holding a dip to the 2981.75 bias-up signal as support, triggering bias-up. Now the 2988.00 bias-up target is being tested, retested, and re-retested. Extending through the Thu-Mon consolidation highs(now being tested) would next target 2997.75, and potentially 3014.00-3016.50. Undermining the upside is yesterday's relatively shallow and relatively brief pullback. But up remains likelier if the UNLESS 2980.00 can't hold as support.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2992.75 2993.25 ...would target 2999.75 3000.25 Bias-down: under 2983.00 2983.25 ...would target 2976.75 2977.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Choppy morning's rally extending easily. Repeated testing of this morning's 2988.00 bias-up target continued chipping away at its resistance. The gradual slope higher noticeably steepened as the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. Extending relentlessly higher through the noon hour is attacking 2997.00. The rally's next higher objective is 2997.75. Call it room for noise above the recent consolidation. Closing above it would confirm the rally's next higher objectives in-play at 3014.00-3016.50. Meanwhile, nothing has changed the only concern about upside momentum, that yesterday's refueling wasn't enough to break beyond the room for noise above last week's highs. To compensate, a bullish scenario could stop pessimistically short of 2997.75 to refuel again. Simultaneously overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the current high doom to failure any reversal down as being only temporary. There's room to 2992.25 before suggesting a more substantial pullback underway, to 2984.50-2986.00. Otherwise, the rally's momentum remains intact.

[The ES front-month rolls forward to DEC at Thursday's open, which is trading at a 1.75 premium to SEP. Prices quoted below are basis SEP.] Wednesday's opening 7-point dip was recovered as quickly, and then reversed by almost as much, all within the first hour. The rally extended relentlessly to probe last week's 2986.50 highs during the morning's choppy effort. Fulfilling its likelihood to get easier in the afternoon, the rally extended relentlessly to within 1 point of the 2997.75 target. The afternoon bias environment's 6-point correction provided a classic second-to-last hour trending session correction. That took much longer than the open's collapse, but it was recovered entirely anyway. Another shot at 2997.75 triggered volatility that dropped 4 points and surged 7 points to close above 3000.00 and fulfill the afternoon's bias-up target. The last recovery above 2997.75 began after coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close, so the next higher objective at 3014.00-3016.50 isn't necessarily in-play. Only 3-minute RSI was overbought at the high, not 1-minute, so an immediate pullback wouldn't require recovering. Both became simultaneously overbought when futures extended to 3002.50, but that was too late to be influential. This is essentially equilibrium. There are two likely resolutions. Correct again similar to Tuesday's relatively shallow brief dip, but under Wednesday afternoon's 2990.50 low. Or, extend higher without delay while keeping optimism excessive. Regardless of which might come next, neither must control the entire session, which would be vulnerable to reversing even more substantially before the close. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3002.25 3004.50 ...would target 3008.75 3011.00 Bias-down: under 2995.25 2997.75 ...would target 2987.25 2989.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.