Stock Market Trading Signals - 09-14-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Gapping down Friday to retest Wednesday and Thursday's 1927.00 support once again held through a relevant timing window to establish the range's lower-end. The balance of the session "rallied" to the pattern's 1949.00-1950.00 objective -- "rallied" to the degree that its intraday uptrend could be considered trending within a larger range. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open immediately resumed Friday's rally, extending to 1964.00. But that soon peaked, and eventually reversed down to probe negative territory at 1946.50 ahead of Europe's opens. That proved overly-cautious, as a quick recovery to attack 1960.00 has ranged choppily sideways since then. If, then... Buyers didn't gain traction for their efforts Friday, so extending higher immediately this morning requires gapping up. So, reacting down without reversing the trend helps to maintain the optimism. But if the rally isn't resumed post-open, then that restrained optimism can quickly become pessimism and drive price back down to well within Friday's range. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1955.50 would be likely also to trigger the 1953.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1946.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Quickly neutralizing the downside. The potential down to 1938.00-1939.00 was realized during the first half-hour's dip to 1937.75. RSIs there were simultaneously oversold, so it will require a retest. But the 1942.50 bias-down signal was recovered through 10:15 to avoid triggering. Probing again under 1942.50 failed to break lower through 10:30, so the no-bias signal was not invalidated. And offsetting test of the 1953.50 bias-up signal is in-play. Officially. Technically, since 1953.50 was attacked to within 3 ticks 1 minute before the open, the intraday crowd already has essentially tested it. But we'll still give it a benefit of the doubt. In fact, the bounce is now extending. It will be difficult to trend any more so today than Friday, especially with today being a religious holiday. Choppy ranging around unchanged may define the session.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1958.00 1946.75 ...would target  1964.75  1953.50 Bias-down: under  1948.00  1936.75 ...would target  1942.25  1931.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Already having confirmed Thursday's breakout close that requires at least one eventual higher close, Monday was free to back-and-fill. There wasn't much backing-and-filling, but the rally did pause. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Neutralizing the attraction below Friday at 1098.40 was still testing the prior low close, so the decline's momentum isn't yet signaled it has ended. Closing above 1111.00 would be a good first step, but it was only attacked Monday as resistance. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday's narrow ranging held the 14.35 attraction below that had been neutralized finally Thursday. But a couple of closes above 14.65 is still needed to launch a rally leg. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Gapping up again Monday held 155-12 resistance and ranged around Friday's high, inhibited from extending higher with unfinished business outstanding below at last Wednesday's 153-12 gap down. In fact, late-morning weakness extended down through the afternoon into negative territory. Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Monday's weakness attacking Wednesday night's 43.35 low is the opposite price action needed to help ensure a retest of the highs above 50.00 is underway. Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Has the ongoing narrow (but not narrowing) range finally broken out? Downtrending resistance at 2.72 was broken by Monday's early firming that extended higher to 2.77 resistance. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm.

Monday's session similar to the prior several sessions, just in reverse, and in slow-motion. Rather than test prior lows and then rally, Sunday night's rally resolved into Monday's testing of prior lows. And while testing prior lows eventually produced bounces, they were too gradual to accumulate momentum, which prevented an afternoon rally. Rallying was also inhibited by thin participation during Rosh Hashanah worship services. That's still a factor Tuesday morning, but much less so by the afternoon. Patience will be wearing thin with quarterly expiration just three days away, and the FOMC policy statement one day before that. Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Wrap recorded here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcrzmzx After 6:30pm ET, use these links to monitor overnight Globex trading:  XP-Friendly   ||   non-xp ilinc

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1961.75 1950.50 ...would target  1966.75  1955.50 Bias-down: under  1946.75  1935.50 ...would target  1941.00  1929.75 Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.