Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday's late surge above the week's 2996.50-3005.00 intraday range to 3009.00 had been retraced immediately overnight, greeting Wednesday's open back at the range's upper-end. The morning then produced a fifth consecutive bias environment overlapping the same range. The range's lower-end had been probed Sunday night but never intraday until reacting to Wednesday's FOMC policy statement. Its initial blip-up to 3005.00 collapsed through 2988.00 to its 2980.50 target. FOMCs that are greeted by multiple overlapping bias environments tend to recover that range, so Powell's Q&A mention of QE was perfectly timed to trigger a 30-point rally to its 3010.50 target by the close. A last-minute sell signal under 3006.00 targeting 2999.75-3001.50 was only touched before bouncing momentarily to 3012.25. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Closing 1-2 points back under 3010.50 soon triggered the sell signal under 3006.00. The lower-end of its 2999.75-3001.50 target was met before midnight, and contained price action until Europe's opens. That triggered a spike down to 2991.25, which snapped back up to the familiar 3005.00 resistance. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The pullback's 2988.00 objective had been tested only Sunday night, and not yet intraday, which had been acting like ballast to prevent the the rally from resuming. Now having tested it intraday, and its next lower objective at 2980.50 to compensate for the delay, the rally is free to resume. So, will it? Closing two consecutive sessions above 3005.00 increases the recovery's likelihood significantly, defining the probes under it as accumulation. But unleashing that accumulation still needs an intraday break above 3005.00. Meanwhile, delaying a break above 3005.00 remains vulnerable to more intraday dips, and vulnerable to more intraday dips chipping away at support. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2999.75 would be likely to trigger the 3002.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3005.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Turnabout is fair play. This morning's Market Tour discussed the overnight backing-and-filling down to 2991.25, and its reaction's attempt to avoid triggering the 3002.50 bias-down signal. Holding a post-open test of the bias-down signal would put into play an offsetting test of the 3012.25 bias-up signal. Perhaps the bias-up signal could be tested in time to trigger. That would risk there being no post-open backing-and-filling, but its signal would still be credible for extending higher. In fact, the overnight dip's reaction did extend, high enough and soon enough to trigger bias-up. The 3019.50 bias-up target had been met already, and now its retest has been probed up to 3023.50. All of which brings us to last Thursday afternoon's highs. It had been probed up to 3025.00 before Friday's open, and before pullbacks attacking 2980.00. Prior extremes present at least obligatory resistance (or support), and occasionally become kill zones that terminate repeated trending attempts. Back under 3018.75 would start to signal momentum reversing down, perhaps presenting a post-open opportunity for backing-and-filling. The trend otherwise remains up, still targeting new highs at 3035.00.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3022.75 3025.25 ...would target 3028.75 3031.25 Bias-down: under 3014.25 3016.75 ...would target 3008.00 3010.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

[chaRTroom login here] My pre-open update noted the likelihood that rallying this morning would begin without delay. Triggering the 3016.25 buy signal 2 minutes after the open did eventually extend up to 3024.50. That probed last Thursday's intraday highs by 1 point, and attacked last Friday's pre-open high to within 2 ticks. Natural resistance. Natural timing, too, as the bias environment was lapsing. Price action since then has trended back down, eventually probing under the 3013.00 open by 3 points. This afternoon's 3016.75 bias-down signal triggered, and now its 3010.50 target has been pierced by 3 ticks. Is this the backing-and-filling that I was concerned had happened only overnight? Outside days often require the intraday crowd to express that sentiment before resuming its reversal leg. Yesterday's outside day reversal leg extended higher intraday without delay. The rally doesn't require resuming when the bias-down environment lapses. Back above 3018.75 would still be bullish. But extending the pullback requires breaking back under 3011.00.

Wednesday's outside day corrected overnight, and surged Thursday morning. My only concern had been backing-and-filling normally occurs between the two, and had not. So, the morning's 3024.50 high was retraced through the afternoon down to 3005.00, bouncing to 3010.50 at the close. That's back down to the upper-end of the 2986.50-3005.00 range that contained five consecutive bias environments into the FOMC policy statement. (Six consecutive bias environments sharing the 3005.00 upper-end.) That's also back under Thursday's 3013.00 open, and unchanged from Wednesday's 3008.25-3009.50 close -- despite having probed last Thursday's prior intraday high by 1 point intraday. Therefore, that's also at risk of extending down overnight and Friday morning. Having trended down into the close, gapping up Friday above Thursday afternoon's 3018.00 bias environment high could form a "session-long rally." The WedEX setup missed forming a bullish signal only because of Tuesday's late surge above 3005.00. Just bouncing away from 3005.00 Friday morning could be enough bullishness to marginalize sellers into the weekend. But any further backing-and-filling back into 2996.50-3005.00 not isolated to the overnight will risk retesting Wednesday's 2980.75 low, and lower. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3010.25 3012.75 ...would target 3016.50 3019.00 Bias-down: under 2999.50 3002.00 ...would target 2991.50 2994.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.