Stock Market Trading Signals - 10-10-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Friday's opening surge stopped short of testing the pre-open reaction to payrolls, which had touched 2161.50. It even stopped short of filling the gap back to last Friday's 2160.00 area close. The restrained optimism may be potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, but not immediately. Potential bullishness didn't prevent a steep morning dip down to 2146.00, or an afternoon dip down to 2138.00. But at least the second dip was retraced into Friday's close. More restrained optimism, perhaps, but oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low. Overnight action's new info... Friday's recovering up to 2151.25 had reacted down into the close at 2145.50. Sunday night's open gapped up to test 2153.00. Choppy sideways ranging persisted through Europe's opens, but eventually started trending to fresh highs at 2157.50. If, then... Last week's intraday -- mostly early -- rally efforts stopped short of prior highs. If that is ultimately bullish from a contrarian perspective, then its ultimate resolution should begin aggressively. Like this morning's open gapping up above Friday's highs, as is currently indicated. Testing last week's highs but then reversing down through the open would suggest their test had held. And the range's lower-end would be a likely objective of the failure, with equal opportunity to break. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2157.50 would be likely to exceed the 2156.50 bias-up target at 10:15, which would renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2162.25. Exiting the open above 2153.00 at 9:45 would be likely at least to trigger the 2151.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2148.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Gap up above prior highs maintained through open. Gapping up to 2158.00 was at or above each of last week's intraday highs. Post-open action hardly looked back while extending to 2163.50. That's even above Friday's pre-open reaction to the Employment Situation report. Maintaining a gap up above prior highs is an anchor. It's not assured of extending higher this morning but often does. Reacting down would be very likely to recover entirely. Potential for reacting down comes from having extended so far already. Not arbitrarily, but holding a test of the 2162.25 renewed bias-up signal. Exceeding it through 10:15 would have doubly-renewed the bias-up, and still have been vulnerable to a pullback. Overbought RSIs at the high require its retest, even after a 2-point dip was recovered to within 1 tick. Regardless, back under 2160.75 would suggest a deeper pullback underway this morning. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under the 2156.50 bias-up target is the minimum requirement to suggest the day's momentum is reversing down.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2171.00 2164.75 ...would target  2176.75  2169.75 Bias-down: under  2164.00  2158.00 ...would target 2159.25  2153.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The afternoon decline's 2156.50 objective was tested and retested, with RSIs diverging positively on the latter. A couple of pops up into and out of the cash session close retraced up to 2159.50. Its recovery during the position-squaring window would have triggered a squeeze. And not closing back at last week's highs around 2157.50 would have combined bullishly with the open's gap up. Instead, resuming the rally Tuesday now requires gapping up to and/or through Monday's 2163.50 high. The alternative would be to back-and-fill lower again. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2168.25 2162.25 ...would target  2174.00  2168.00 Bias-down: under 2160.25  2154.25 ...would target 2155.75  2149.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.