VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs] DO IT [Apply the output] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs] DO IT [Apply the output] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: TUE P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs] DO IT [Apply the output] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs] DO IT [Apply the output] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: TUE A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Stock Market Pre-Open Plan - 7:35 AM
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Previously : Fri's probes under Globex’s first-hour low down to 3951 were recovered to avoid a bearish Globex-flip. Fulfilling the morning's bias-up target up to 3991 reacted down again to 3956, rescued by Friday Factors making the bias-up signal persist through the noon hour. Fulfilling the afternoon's 3997 bias-up target extended to 4010 on a bullish Fri PM Drift.
Overnight price points : Sun gapped down to 3980 and immediately retraced Fri afternoon's upleg. Ranging Sideways range up to 3996 broke lower after Europe's opens to 3977, now bouncing back into the range.
Influences/Catalysts :
- Fed speaker called CPI print insufficient to yet adjust rate hikes.
- No econ report scheduled today,
- but afternoon will begin focusing on Tue morning's PPI.
Setups/Patterns :
- Thu's confirmed paradigm shift now expects an eventual probe higher.
- Two consecutive trending sessions Thu-Fri beyond the prior range also give further upside a benefit of the doubt.
- Overnight fluctuation at the 3984 bias-down signal without yet trending down further suggests ineffectual pessimism, and can qualify for a Too-late-to-break setup.
Objectives : No higher close is required, but this much entrenched upside momentum tends to produce at least a couple more timing windows probing higher. So, no morning uptrend will be capable of marginalizing sellers for the day, but a sufficiently higher close could.
Premise : Already firming back to unchanged would be credible for probing Fri highs, still attracted to 4012 or high.
Alternative : Greeting the open lower than the earlier overnight range would focus on triggering bias-down or not.
Levels : UP: 4012, 4048, 4066... DOWN: 3933, 3877-3880, 3835.
Day Trading Opening Predictions - 10:37 AM
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Previously : Sun's open gapped down to 3980 and immediately retraced Fri afternoon's upleg. Ranging Sideways range up to 3996 broke lower after Europe's opens to 3977, now bouncing back into the range.
New price points : Still ranging sideways gave no clues or credibility to initial sponsorship. But a last-minute outsized downbar suddenly reflected impatient sellers that began suggesting buyers are stronger-handed. The dip held a post-open retest down to 3974 that has probed overnight highs up to 4005 and avoided triggering bias-down.
Influences/Catalysts : Fed speaker called CPI print insufficient to yet adjust rate hikes. No econ report scheduled today, but afternoon will begin focusing on Tue morning's PPI.
Setups/Patterns : NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN.
Objectives : Holding the 3984 bias-down signal's test has put into play an offsetting test of the 4012 bias-up signal. Probing above it this morning would be no-bias trending that requires retracing 4012, but probing later would be free to extend.
Triggers/Tactics : Nothing ensures a straight path up, so reentering longs and buying dips.
Alternative : Printing fresh post-open highs after 10:15 undermines an organic downleg.
Levels : UP: 4012, 4048, 4066... DOWN: 3933, 3877-3880, 3835.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4008, targeting 4021.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3988, targeting 3977.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Mid-Day Market Thoughts - 1:38 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels
Previously : Still ranging sideways gave no clues or credibility to initial sponsorship. But a last-minute outsized downbar suddenly reflected impatient sellers that began suggesting buyers are stronger-handed. The dip held a post-open retest down to 3974 that has probed overnight highs up to 4005 and avoided triggering bias-down.
New price points : The 4012 objective above didn't ensure a straight path up, which had probed overnight highs to 4005. A pullback to 3979 was recovered on Fed speaker headlines. Choppily extending higher through the noon hour is now probing Fri's high to 4015.
Influences/Catalysts : Fed speaker teases at slowing rate hikes... Afternoon will begin focusing on Tue morning's PPI.
Setups/Patterns : LATE BIAS-UP... No timing window has yet been spent probing above Thu-Fri high, still a likely reward for its extended paradigm shift. Now probing fresh highs and free to extend, absent headlines.
Objectives : Offsetting test of the morning's 4012 bias-up signal was just neutralized. Extending higher is next attracted to 4048.
Triggers/Tactics : Attraction to the 4021 bias-up target now in-play doesn't mean this morning's character of hesitant pullbacks won't persist.
Alternative : Exiting the bias window back under its 4008 bias signal would signal another detour underway.
Levels : UP: 4012, 4048, 4066... DOWN: 3933, 3877-3880, 3835.
Day Trading Market Wrap - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Mon's open was greeted by a flat 3982-3996 range that warned of a choppy day ahead. Overnight ineffectual pessimism and a last-minute blip-down to 3974 suggested sellers were weak-handed. Upside was confirmed by holding the morning's bias-down signal, then triggering the afternoon's bias-up. Probing Fri's high to 4018 soon collapsed 54 points to 3964.
Influences/Catalysts : Thu's pre-open PPI is being greeted with extreme last-minute pessimism, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective.
Setups/Patterns : Bearish Pivot Reversal formed by gapping down in an uptrend and closing lower after an interim recovery to fresh highs. The setup tends to be immediately productive, if not rejected by proxy.
Objectives : Mon's afternoon 4021 bias-up target becomes unfinished business above.
Premise : The bearish Pivot Reversal had not probed the morning's low until exiting Mon's position-squaring window, making it more vulnerable to being rejected by proxy of gapping up Tue above 3993. This doesn't disqualify the setup -- not gapping up would likely extend down and probably gaps down.
Alternative : Gapping up on a favorable PPI reaction would be attracted to retest Mon's highs.
Levels : UP: 4012, 4021, 4048, 4066... DOWN: 3933, 3877-3880, 3835.
Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3985, targeting 3998.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3957, targeting 3946.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.