VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs] DO IT [Apply the output] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs] DO IT [Apply the output] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: WED P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs] DO IT [Apply the output] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs] DO IT [Apply the output] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Market Pre-Open Strategy - 7:27 AM
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Previously : All of Mon's late 4011-3964 collapse was retraced into Tue's PPI, which spiked up to 4051. The morning's 4009 low held Fri-Mon lower prior highs, and might have resolved up but for Russia (inadvertently?) bombing Poland. Collapsing to 3960 was retraced to 4010 before the close.
Overnight price points : Fluctuating around Tue's 4001 cash session close initially completed a 61.8% retrace of the afternoon's bounce down to 3981. Firming through midnight greeted Europe's opens at the 4016 objective the afternoon bounce had avoided. Now its reaction is back to unchanged around 4001.
Catalysts : Russia-Ukraine-Poland fallout, Retail Sales.
Setups/Patterns : 3-day Range, Too-late-to-break, Headlines, WedEX positioning.
Their influences :
- Three consecutive sessions have largely overlapped each other, while absorbing headline reactions ranging from PPI to missile attacks. The preceding upleg is on the doorstep of becoming entrenched.
- Overnight ranging between bias signals that inserts a breakout in the 60-90 minute window tends to retrace that breakout back into the range, whether to then resume the original breakout or to reverse it in the opposite direction.
- Headlines have triggered reversals within the range, but not a breakout of the range. This is a pattern, which repeats until proved otherwise, so headline reactions will be expected to retrace.
- Wed afternoon before Fri's expiration can be predictive of an expiration bias. We'll only know today whether the setup is forming, and to look for its Fri input.
Premise : Overnight headlines have confirmed my suspicion of earlier spin that Russia had purposely attacked Poland. Ranging sideways throughout suggests anxiousness focused on Retail Sales. Gapping up would be attracted to yesterday's PPI reaction that tested 4048 pre-open. Otherwise, reacting down could stretch the rubber band to 3948 or 3933 before launching the next rally leg, or else extending further down to 3808.
Alternative : Gapping up Wed would be credible for already retracing PPI's test of 4048 to 4066.
Levels : UP: 4066... DOWN: 3933, 3877-3880.
Stock Market Opening Trends - 10:40 AM
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Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Fluctuating around Tue's 4001 cash session close initially completed a 61.8% retrace of the afternoon's bounce down to 3981. Firming through midnight greeted Europe's opens at the 4016 objective the afternoon bounce had avoided. Now its reaction is back to unchanged around 4001.
New price points : Limited volatility after Retail Sales further weakened to open at 3981 earlier lows. An obligatory bounce to 3981 resolved down to fresh lows at 3972. Still testing the 3977 bias-down signal at both 10:15 and 10:30 doesn't reflect any bias.
Catalysts : Afternoon Fed speaker, nothing high-profile enough tomorrow morning to anticipate it informing this afternoon's price action.
Setups/Patterns : noN-BIAS, AT BIAS-DOWN.
Their influences : No requirement to hold the 3977 signal as support, or to test its 3963 target, or for an offsetting test of the 4012 bias-up signal.
Triggers/Tactics : A couple of sell signals were somewhat productive but didn't gain traction, but they get a benefit of the doubt for contributing to a retest of yesterday's 3960 low down to 3948 or 3933.
Alternative : Sell signals not gaining traction opens the door to another bounce, which would be triggered back above 3988.
Levels : UP: 4066... DOWN: 3948, 3933.
Tonight's Day Trading Plan - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3988, targeting 3998.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3972, targeting 3960.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Market Mid-Day Predictions - 1:31 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels
Previously : Limited volatility after Retail Sales further weakened to open at 3981 earlier lows. An obligatory bounce to 3981 resolved down to fresh lows at 3972. Still testing the 3977 bias-down signal at both 10:15 and 10:30 doesn't reflect any bias.
New price points : The morning's 3966 low wasn't so much recovered as retraced to resume fluctuating around the overnight low at 3972-3985. Same for the noon hour's surge to 3991, quickly retraced back into the range. Neither of which qualifies as trending, but other than triggering no-bias, the ranging suggests buyers aren't attracted to this area. The prevailing attraction remains intact, which is fresh lows at 3948 or 3933, with the path there being vulnerable to bigger bounces, while still being likely to resolve down.
Catalysts : Afternoon Fed speaker, nothing high-profile enough tomorrow morning to blame for inhibiting this afternoon's price action.
Setups/Patterns : NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP... Equilibrium.
Their influences : Earlier surges down to 3966 and up to 3991 were too shallow to qualify as trending, so there has yet to be any display of the equilibrium influence suggested previously. Now triggering no-bias makes near-term trending unlikely, although probes beyond either bias signal during this window would require retrace.
Triggers/Tactics : Regardless of the no-bias window, still posturing short.
Alternative : Now 3-1/2 sessions since last Thursday's paradigm shift rally, and continuing to hold tests of the range's support. Another bounce back above 3988 can't be dismissed.
Levels : UP: 4066... DOWN: 3948, 3933.
Stock Market Closing Thoughts - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Any random 45-minute segment from Wed defines what the overnight sideways action had already told us to expect for the session. A bias toward 1-2 lower attractions interrupted by larger than normal bounces that would be likely to resolve down. Missing was an Equilibrium influence that would trend convincingly before suddenly reversing direction. Instead an inside day formed while all but one timing window probed fresh session lows.
Catalysts : Thu's pre-open Philly Fed is reliably influential to price action, five Fed speakers.
Setups/Patterns : 3-Day consolidation, Inside day, Equilibrium, WedEX.
Their influences :
- Now at least 3-1/2 sessions since last Thursday's paradigm shift rally, while continuing to hold tests of the range's support, all but ensured to launch another upleg -- but likely first needing a fresh relative low, e.g. 3948, 3933.
- The bias of an inside day tends to reflect weak-handed sentiment, being allowed by patient strong-handed sponsorship. Gapping open in the direction of that bias can serve by proxy, but it would still need closing confirmation.
- A session spent trending convincingly in opposite directions remains possible.
- Wed afternoon breakouts, failed breakout attempts, or trending can be the first of two conditions for a WedEX setup. The inside day doesn't qualify, so no WedEX this cycle.
Premise : Wed's inside day isn't predictive, but as importantly it outlasts 3 sessions since last Thu's paradigm shift rally. This suggests it intends to extend, but also that strong-handed buyers need lower prices to be attracted for sponsoring the next upleg, still presumably 3948 or 3933.
Alternative : Gapping up Thu above Tue afternoon's 4010-4011 last relative high can serve by proxy in place of a more constructive refueling dip. While still likely to extend intraday, not actually refueling tends to limit the upleg's degree and duration.
Levels : UP: 4048... DOWN: 3948, 3933.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Bias Levels - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3988, targeting 4001.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3960, targeting 3948.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.