Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Ranging sideways overnight above 3681.00 finally broke higher at Europe's opens, attacking prior highs up to 3701.50. Reversing down through Wednesday's open touched 3681.00 and bounced again to 3696.00. Anxiousness ahead of the afternoon's FOMC events kept price within its range, before probing a new high at 3704.50. The last half-hour dipped back down to attack 3692.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Yesterday's late pullback held Globex's first hour at 3692.00. Then it didn't. A steep rally extended relentlessly up to 3716.00. Europe's opens started ranging narrowly sideways, including a blip-up to 3717.50, now backing-off down to 3710.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The past week-plus of gap patterns has been conditioning buyers to buy weakness, soon breeding impatience that prevents gaps up from reversing down. No overnight dip needed defending on the way to this morning's gap up that is now indicated. A post-open correction that barely threatens yesterday's highs would also keep with the ongoing gap patterns conditioning. Today's influential pre-open econ calendar still lies ahead, but the rally still gets every benefit of the doubt, presumably with a Relentless overnight trending setup to discuss at the open. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Pullback reversal absorbed, again. Relentless overnight trending had essentially peaked at Europe's opens at 3716.00-3717.50. Flat-to-lower ranging finally bounced from 3707.50 through the open's surge up to 3717.00. An impressive first half of the first 15 minutes, but the balance reversed down sharply to 3707.00. And the reversal extended to the 3705.00 38.2 gap-to-gap support. So, the relentless overnight trending was neither reinforced nor countered by new sponsorship. But the 3703.50 bias-up signal triggered. And a retest of its 3713.25 bias-up target is in-play. At least its retest. Being a bias-up environment doesn't limit the potential upside. Also, there may be more evolution in the ongoing pattern of recovering a gap up's reversal. This morning may be the first not even to touch the prior session's range, if not also to recover fresh highs during the same timing window. Extending higher would next target 3724.50. That said, fresh lows would next target the 3701.00 61.8 gap-to-gap support, and probably lower to compensate for buying pressure expended during the failed rally effort.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3714.50 signal would target 3724.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3697.25 signal would target 3689.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3722.50 3714.50 ...would target 3732.50 3724.50 Bias-down: under 3705.25 3697.25 ...would target 3697.00 3689.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Still absorbing the gap up's reaction. The gap up to 3711.50 had extended up to 3717.00 before reversing down as many points back under the open. Each dip has returned back up to 3711.50. It's not a speedy evolution of gap recoveries, but it's evolution nonetheless -- shallower gap reversals reflects pre-conditioned buyers. Reversing back above the open has been a different story. Extending above the open's high today would come slower than yesterday's pace. But it would continue the conditioning process that ensures recovering an overnight dip, and/or extending a gap up. Still, the delay is suspect for there being a negative headline hovering in the near future. Back under 3705.75 could still test the 3697.00 bias-down signal just as noise during the no-bias environment. Similarly, a bounce has room up to the 3714.50 bias-up signal for now.

Rallying 22 points overnight up to 3717.50 had peaked at Europe's opens. Its eventual reaction into and out of Thursday's open was relatively shallow. Wednesday's high was barely pierced while testing the gap-to-gap retracement at 3702.00 at noon. Another reversal of another gap up. But shallow dips continually recovered to the 3711.50 open instead of extending lower, and rallying through the afternoon recovered 3714.00. Buyers were only so impatient as to contain session lows to well within positive territory. Recovering short of the overnight or opening highs was restrained optimism, which is bullish from a contrarian perspective. The optimism might have been less restrained if not ambushed by a negative stimulus headline at the final hour's entry. Even then, its knee-jerk reaction was retraced entirely, which is in stark contrast to the usual extended downside from such late headlines. Now Friday Factors can exacerbate a gap up to trend up through the morning. Not gapping up would be less credible for extending higher intraday since Thursday afternoon's buyers gained no traction for their effort. Trending down Friday has a little room for noise down to 3701.00 before suggesting anything deeper in-play like 3789.00. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3718.00 signal would target 3726.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3705.00 signal would target 3696.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3726.00 3718.00 ...would target 3734.00 3726.00 Bias-down: under 3713.00 3705.00 ...would target 3740.00 3696.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE