Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday was greeted by Sunday night's collapse that had retraced December's three weeks of rallying back down to 3596.00. Two influences had made the drop unlikely to begin a new downtrend: its expiration timing, and the recent buy-the-dip conditioning. Bouncing through the open up to 3671.00 retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the overnight drop. Its reaction back down to 3625.00 retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the bounce. Trending back up through both bias environments up to 3694.00 ended the intraday bounce. A temporary dip to 3672.00 was recovered through the 3685.50 cash session close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Yesterday's recovery has been maintained, albeit threatened briefly. Ranging sideways was initially supported by the 3675.50 bias-down signal. Dipping through midnight tested the 3665.25 bias-down target by only a few ticks, and only briefly. Rallying through Europe's opens was extended to consolidate at the 3692.25 bias-up signal, just now blipping-up to 3695.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The overnight dip wasn't arbitrary, acknowledging both bias-down parameters. It can represent the vulnerability to correcting, retracing, or reversing yesterday's recovery. But gapping up above the 3692.25 bias-up signal (quoted 1 point lower yesterday) -- and maintaining it through the first 15 minutes -- could resume yesterday's recovery without delay. Actually triggering bias-up is required, too. Remember, this being a holiday-shortened week, the door to launching a deeper dip starts closing after Tuesday morning, so rallying into the noon hour would also be bullish going forward. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Yes, for lack of trying. No-bias, but not for lack of trying overnight. Just intraday. Overnight lows had responded to tests of the 3675.50 and 3665.25 bias-down parameters. Their reaction was clearly resisted by the 3692.25 bias-up signal. But the 3687.75 open was already reacting down from the bias-up signal's pre-open test. And extending down only attacked the bias-down signal to within 2 ticks. Twice. Either 3675.50-3692.25 bias signal should define its end of the bias environment if touched. Which is a little bullish, since not gapping up to extend higher this morning was vulnerable to reversing down. It also suggests no downtrending this morning, which could undermine sellers for the balance of the week. If any buy signal gains traction, I do suspect it will probe the 3695.00 overnight high. Done early enough, it would be no-bias trending that requires being retraced. None of which prevents probing lower lows intraday, just not durably by strong-handed sponsorship.

TUE P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3683.00 signal would target 3693.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3670.50 signal would target 3663.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3692.75 3683.00 ...would target 3703.25 3693.50 Bias-down: under 3680.00 3670.50 ...would target 3672.50 3663.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

And confirmed. Triggering no-bias this morning without a post-open touch of either bias signal meant no offsetting test of the other bias signal was in-play. Not an attractive trading environment. Then the bias environment started lapsing at 11:30. A likely break under the consolidation's 3680.50 sell signal quickly fulfilled its 3666.00 target. Its reaction greeted the noon hour back at the morning's 3675.50 bias-down signal. Trending up through the noon hour has now triggered a late bias-up above 3683.00. And fresh highs up to 3687.00 after 1:30 are confirming the signal's reliability despite being triggered late. The 3693.50 bias-up target is in-play, and probably also a probe above the 3695.00 overnight highs. Caveat: As participation thins, so does volume, and liquidity for absorbing counter-trend sponsorship. A knee-jerk headline reaction could be out-sized, and more attractive to play than waiting for it to be absorbed.

Not gapping up Tuesday meant not trending up Tuesday morning. Tuesday's 3688.00 open was greeted almost unchanged, but already reacting down from the 3695.00 pre-open high. The morning's 3676.00-3689.00 range finally broke lower when the bias environment lapsed, testing its 3666.00 target. Bouncing back into the morning's range eventually produced a shallower dip before the 3678.00 close. Two pieces of unfinished business were left outstanding. The 3666.00's oversold RSIs require a retest. The afternoon's 3693.50 bias-up target was also created. Either can be neutralized overnight. Evaporating volume continues to make intraday trending unlikely, while keeping the door open to suddenly sharp moves. Not already trending down Tuesday morning made downtrending unlikely. So, thinner volume can exacerbate knee-jerk reactions, but probably only temporarily. Meanwhile, I'm seeing a lot of 1-2 day surges among individual stocks, probably because of the limited supply of setups elsewhere. This extreme optimism can turn around and attack an otherwise complacent market. Getting that done in this thin market could create an interesting long-entry. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3685.00 signal would target 3695.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3669.75 signal would target 3660.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3694.75 3685.00 ...would target 3704.25 3695.50 Bias-down: under 3679.25 3669.75 ...would target 3669.75 3660.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE