Barron's, Giselle, Kanye, and now... Russell Okung? Contrarianism in investing is invoked in 1-2 ways. Its basic trigger arises when a perspective has become widely held, and its effect has been discounted by those already acting on it. A contrarian might take the opposite position, presumably ahead of opinion deteriorating or reversing. Popular icons and publications thrive on taking the mainstream pulse. Their high-profile actions can also reflect a widely agreed perspective. And that tends to come nearer to a trend's end than to its beginning. The phenomenon is common in magazine covers, whose editors also gauge their readership's pulse when determining where to focus. Here is Barron's getting the nerve to promote the Dow "vaulting past a milestone" before a couple of major peaks, and then later arguing for further bond market gains just 1 day prior to a 9-month old peak. Notice the similarities among these markets, those above and those following below. Each one experiences significant uptrending before their high-profile cheerleaders take the baton. Giselle's 2007 requirement for payment in Euro was just in time for a front row seat to it reversing a multi-year rally into a 10-year long decline. Kanye in 2017 bought wife Kim a 6-figure stock portfolio for Christmas, just in time for a 3-week surge that crashed back down into a 7-month long bear market. Fortunately, his shared enthusiasm only needed cooling off and consolidation before being rewarded. Otherwise, they might have been forced into living on the street. Now comes Russell Okung of the Carolina Panthers, who has requested paying his salary in #Bitcoin. The math is simple: Okung plays football, football players are big, request granted. Half of his salary now comes paid in Bitcoin. To be somewhat fair, Okung made his request in May 2019 when Bitcoin was trading $7,000-$9,000. However, the arrangement is only now being implemented at $28,000, presumably with Okung agreeing to the timing. The rest of the math is simple, too: Huge financial news outshines its usual spotlight and creeps into popular culture, where non-financial types feel comfortable with an effort to appear financially savvy. So, if Okung's high-profile Bitcoin "call" follows the same path as Giselle's Euro pick and Kanye's market timing, then expect a near-term peak soon among #cryptocurrencies. I find this timing doubly interesting as #BTC attacks my long-standing $29,000-handle objective. Its more precise target is $29,400, now met to within $100. So, other than asking 1-1/2 years ago for Bitcoin payment at its most recent lows, let's just say that Okung's financial acumen now may be in taking his salary's other half in Dollars.

Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Not extending Tuesday's decline through Wednesday's open had already all but marginalized sellers. Confidence suffered from not yet probing the 3738.00 overnight high. Selling was muted or brief, ranging sideways through the morning, and holding the gap-fill back down to Tuesday's 3721.00 cash session close. A late surge was retraced back to the low through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Flat-to-higher ranging up to 3729.50 became flat-to-lower ranging by midnight. Yesterday's 3721.00 lows were broken by Europe's opens. Extending down choppily has touched 3715.00. RSIs diverged positively to enable a 2-hour rally attacking earlier highs up to 3728.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Until surging from 3715.00, this pattern was resembling the charting equivalent of a slow motion car accident. And that would be the likely prognosis, if not for this being a holiday-shortened week, which already missed Tuesday's window for launching a strong-handed decline. More so, the last session prior to a 3-day weekend isn't very reliable, but trending down through the open would still be more vulnerable to extending down this morning. But now attacking overnight highs, isolating the earlier probe under yesterday's lows could form a bullish Globex-flip. Jobless Claims and quarter-end portfolio window dressing is still ahead. Unfinished business at 3739.75, 3744.00, and 3748.00 would all be fair game for any rally effort, but that effort's greatest challenge could be to retest yesterday's 3736.00 high, let alone exceeding it. Meanwhile, trending down has room to test 3706.00 as noise, and under 3701.00 would start signaling a much deeper slide underway. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Opening Thrust establishes likely session low. The overnight recovery from its 3715.00 low was retraced pre-open back down to the 3720.00 bias-down signal. Its reaction was reversed through the open back down to 3718.00. Actually, the post-open reaction tested both yesterday afternoon's 3721.00 lows and the 3720.00 bias-down signal. And a bounce recovered the tests through the first 15 minutes. This is a bullish opening thrust setup, and it suggests the session low has formed. The bounce has extended to test and retest 3727.50, This being a relatively low participation session, the opening thrust tends not only to define one end of the range, but also to reverse to the range's opposite end. So, having held the bias-down signal's test to trigger no-bias increases the likelihood for fulfilling its 3733.00 bias-up signal's offsetting test today. Meanwhile, similar to yesterday, any bullish scenario is tenuous until a prior high is recovered. None was recovered yesterday, which led to lower lows. And none has yet been recovered today.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3724.75 signal would target 3732.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3715.50 signal would target 3705.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3733.25 3724.75 ...would target 3741.00 3732.50 Bias-down: under 3724.00 3715.50 ...would target 3714.25 3705.75 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Any more action before next year? The bullish opening thrust setup from 3718.00 held resistance at 3727.00. Its consolidation became a predictable retest of the earlier low's inflection, which was likely a detour before rallying again. That renewed rally has only attacked the earlier high. And its bounce just triggered noN-bias by still testing the bias-up signal at both 1:20 and 1:30. That window often behaves like a no-bias and holds the bias-up signal resistance. In fact, a pullback is eking lower to 3722.00. The bullish opening thrust already suggests the morning low will hold, but beware a year-end surprise. Meanwhile, resuming the rally would be free to extend higher, since no-bias trending wouldn't apply.

Happy New Year! It has been an honor to spend 2020 with you observing and anticipating market behaviors during this astonishing year, and I look forward to being there with you during 2021. I hope the New Year greets you and your family in good health and high spirits...  - Rod Everything -- the day, the month, the quarter, and the year -- everything ended Thursday on a high note. A high note that neutralized all unfinished business above. Wednesday night's probe under intraday lows down to 3715.00 had recovered to attack the 3729.50 overnight high. Thursday's opening probe under Wednesday's low down to 3718.00 also recovered in time to form a bullish opening thrust. The setup signals the session low is in, and often gravitates higher through the session. The afternoon bias environment finally did break higher, sharply, up to 3753.00. My morning update had noted that all unfinished business above would be "fair game" if a rally gained traction. Thursday afternoon's 33-point rally got the memo. It neutralized Wednesday morning's 3740.00 outstanding bias-up target, Tuesday's 3744.00 gap up above prior highs, and Monday night's 3748.00 Globex trend extreme. Their test was likely to include 3750.00, which was probed by 3 points. A bullish PM traction setup formed by exiting Thursday's bias environment above the noon hour high and then entering the final hour formed. But it doesn't qualify as unfinished business, since the setup's influence isn't reliable over a normal weekend, let alone a 3-day weekend. We'll still give a benefit of the doubt for influencing Monday morning if the first 15 minutes trend up. Closing above 3757.00-3758.00 would start putting into play the rally's potential for extending to 3884.00. None of which precludes entering the New Year's in decline. But only backing-and-filling so long as 3701.00-3706.00 holds as support. Any deeper through a timing window's exit could point sharply lower, no longer allowed a bullish context since (have I mentioned?) NO unfinished business remains outstanding. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom will re-open Sunday night with Globex at 6:00 ET.

MON A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3750.50 signal would target 3757.75. BIAS-DOWN: under 3737.00 signal would target 3728.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3759.00 3750.50 ...would target 3766.25 3757.75 Bias-down: under 3745.25 3737.00 ...would target 3736.75 3728.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE