Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== chaRTroom is now open... NO PRE-OPEN UPDATE TODAY I'M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS FOR TODAY'S FIRST HALF-HOUR

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday's open blipped-down 4 points under Monday's low to 3213.00, and just as quickly bounced back to unchanged around 3223.00 in time to signal a "Dry Cleaners morning." The setup's reflection of weak-handed sponsorship suggested another detour down before fulfilling the higher bias objective at 3228.50. The detour down only attacked the open's low, and the afternoon only ranged narrowly sideways in negative territory. Sellers were clearly done, and the balance of the session rallied to 3228.50 -- and through it to 3236.25. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The New Year's trading halt ended with Wednesday evening's open at or around Tuesday's 3236.25 last-minute high. That became support to a choppy range attacking 3241.00. Already breaking higher into Europe's opens, the rally extended up to 3251.00. Its reaction down is now attacking 3247.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) I'M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS FOR TODAY'S FIRST HALF-HOUR... So, so much for a DOWN-CRASH? That's what the overnight rally suggests, now touching last Friday's 3251.00 opening print, the rally's highest intraday print. Higher highs are likely, even being back in the orbit of last Thursday night's 3254.00 "new Globex trend extreme." And that higher attraction could jump-start a more substantial rally today that persists into and out of the weekend. That bullish resolution depends largely on extending higher through the open, because trending up relentlessly overnight is always vulnerable to being rejected during the open. Its rejection likely find little support below, since the entire upleg from Tuesday's low will have yet to prove its sponsorship is strong-handed. In fact, Tuesday afternoon's rally was signaled precisely because its sponsorship was weak-handed. The 3254.00 "unfinished business" attraction may be the key to the overnight rally persisting intraday. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3244.75 would be likely also to exceed the 3242.50 bias-up target at 10:15 and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3237.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 3235.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

But relentless rally not reinforced. Relentless overnight trending is always vulnerable to being retraced if the opening 15 minutes don't attract reinforcements. And last night's relentless trending didn't attract reinforcements. The 3251.75 overnight high reacted down to 3245.00 into the open. A post-open bounce to 3251.00 reacted down to 3236.50 through the bias timing window. The 3242.50 bias-up target was retraced in time to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. This is still a bias-up environment, with room down to its 3235.00 bias-up signal. But no requirement to dip that far, and no prohibition to recovering. Consolidating at the pullback's low has now broken higher to attack 3244.00, and could extend to fresh highs. Last week's 3254.00 "new Globex trend extreme" is an attraction. Meanwhile, back under the 3239.00 area would signal the recovery attempt is failing.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3244.25 3244.50 ...would target 3253.00 3253.25 Bias-down: under 3237.25 3237.50 ...would target 3230.75 3231.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Still not resuming the overnight trend. The first hour's rejection of the overnight rally never extended under its 3236.50 low. The morning bias environment and noon hour have only ranged choppily back up to the 3244.00 area. The range's last bounce held this afternoon's 3244.50 bias-up signal, triggering no-bias. Its reaction has room to the afternoon's 3237.50 bias-down signal. Failing to rally intraday is usual when relentless overnight trending isn't reinforced at the open. Downtrending is also usual, means probing multiple intraday windows. Fresh lows could break under the afternoon's 3237.50 bias-down signal if delayed until the bias environment begins lapsing. The alternative to falling further is not necessarily to rally. But the reward for fresh afternoon highs above 3244.50 is still fresh highs above 3251.00 to likely test 3254.00.

Wednesday night's relentless rally up to 3251.75 had formed a setup that needs post-open reinforcements to extend, or else it's corrected, if not also retraced, and occasionally reversed. Fresh highs were made difficult by a pre-open dip back to 3245.00. In fact, Thursday's post-open recovery attempt was limited to 3251.00, which collapsed down to 3236.50. A slightly lower low after the bias environment began lapsing qualified (barely) for the setup's usual later low. The low qualified for fully retracing the overnight rally. No lower attractions were in-play, and only the afternoon no-bias environment inhibited a recovery above its 3244.50 bias-up signal. Until the bias environment came within view of lapsing. Counter-trend sponsorship was immediately productive, rallying through the 3254.00 "unfinished business" and higher to 3258.75 through the close. And the rally had gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour high, then entering the final hour higher. The likely reward for gaining afternoon traction is to control the next morning's bias environment, which only gapping down can invalidate. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3261.75 3262.00 ...would target 3270.25 3270.50 Bias-down: under 3252.25 3252.50 ...would target 3245.75 3246.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.