Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday's opening 15 minutes of volatility signaled that Wednesday night's relentless rally up to 3251.75 had failed to attract intraday reinforcements. The first hour's collapse to 3236.50 almost immediately retraced the rally almost entirely. The setup produced a lower low and enabled the afternoon's no-bias environment that was contained by its 3244.50 bias-up signal. There was no further requirement to remain under pressure, and last week's 3254.00 "unfinished business" remained outstanding. The bias environment's lapse launched another rally, gaining traction into the final hour that extended to 3259.75. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Thursday's late momentum persisted into the Globex open's 3263.50 high. Ranging narrowly sideways there was suddenly derailed by news of the US stike on Iran. Tuesday's (i.e. 2019's) close was retraced down to 3230.50 by midnight. Extending lower tested 3207.00 has retraced two weeks of gains, now reacting back up to test 3224.00. Crude Oil is surging. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Although the DOWN-CRASH had fizzled out, topping patterns remained intact. Those, too, could have been invalidated, but meanwhile there remained potential for another decline. Closing higher today would have been bullish enough, so the overnight news is exploiting an organic risk, regardless of its trigger being external. Opening under Tuesday's 3219.00 midday highs would be likely to extend to 3175.00-3180.00. Opening above 3219.00 could allow a corrective bounce. Meanwhile, the standard for a trend change has risen considerably. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Bias parameters are far removed from this morning's indicated open.

Post-open action more hopeful. The overnight plunge from 3263.50 down to 3206.75 had bounced to 3232.00, testing the pre-midnight lows as resistance. That allowed room for expending selling pressure before even challenging 3219.00, let alone breaking it through the open to resume the decline. So, dipping into the open only attacked 3220.00. Its premature reaction was nevertheless productive, fulfilling its 3240.75 bounce potential. But not before forming a Complex Ascending Triangle. The pattern usually continues the trend to a final, brief extreme before reversing the trend. In fact, the reaction to 3240.75 has reacted down to test a 3235.00 sell signal. Under 3233.00 would confirm the trend is reversing back down. Absorbing this dip and recovering fresh highs would next target the 3253.00 area. This afternoon's impending 2:00 FOMC Minutes might inhibit that recovery, or encourage it in anticipation of dovish reporting. The gap back up to yesterday's close does not require being filled, so any pattern with that likely outcome would be even more bullish.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3244.25 3244.50 ...would target 3252.25 3252.50 Bias-down: under 3236.00 3236.25 ...would target 3230.25 3230.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

How to make the bounce bigger, and how to kill it. The morning recovery's 3240.75 target reacted down to 3230.75 before the bias environment began lapsing. Fresh recovery highs into the noon hour extended to 3246.25, holding the afternoon's 3244.50 bias-up signal to trigger no-bias. A plunge to 3233.00 was triggered by an almost perfectly timed tweet suggesting that a US military base in Iraq was under attack: 1:32 - @farnazfassihi Breaking: Unconfirmed reports of ballistic missiles hitting largest US military base Ain Al-Assad in #Iraq & massive explosions, via IRGC Telegram channels. Another tweet contradicted it, enabling a bounce back up to 3241.25: 1:38 - @Mustafa_salimb Replying to @farnazfassihi I just called the Iraqi army 7th division commander who is based there, he completely denied it The first tweeter is a New York Times reporter who has been criticized all day for earlier posting a borderline eulogy of General Soleimani. Wouldn't it be interesting if she were fed misinformation in order to undermine her credibility? We'll keep that in mind the next time her twitter handle offers market-moving news. Anyway, this being a Friday, recovering the noon hour's 3246.00 highs when the bias environment begins lapsing would be vulnerable to trend higher through the close. The alternative isn't necessarily to drop, only the vulnerability to dropping. Acknowledging there's a big space of unknown in between, breaking beyond either end of the 3219.00-3241.00 range would be likely to extend in that direction.

With no Saturday Review this weekend, Friday's Market Wrap was extended to cover the Bigger Picture. Be sure to watch the recording (report any issues back to me, please). Thursday night's plunge in reaction to the US air strike probed under Tuesday's 3214.50 support. Its test intraday would have extended the decline to 3175.00-3180.00, but a recovery kept the 3219.00 sell signal out of play. Barely -- a 12-point pre-open dip only attacked 3219.00 to within only 5 ticks. The noon hour capped the recovery upon testing and retesting 3246.00 (resistance at Thursday's open) while RSIs diverged negatively. The balance of the session ranged choppily back down to 3233.00-3234.00 (at or under Thursday's post-open lows). While the DOWN-CRASH resolution was being absorbed, the trend change signal level was raised considerably. The Market Wrap video depicts the difference, which is raised from 3117.00 or 3093.00 to 3214.50-3223.00. Thursday night's initial probe of fresh highs lacked complexity that could have qualified as a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring retest, so there is no "unfinished business" above. But there's also no requirement to retest Thursday night's lows, so the rally is free to resume. Making it through the weekend without escalation with the Iran might allow focus on next Friday's Employment Situation report -- which could help the rally by moving it into the rear view mirror. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3240.75 3241.00 ...would target 3248.75 3249.00 Bias-down: under 3230.25 3230.50 ...would target 3223.25 3224.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.