VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: WED P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Trade Signals - Pre Open - 7:30 AM
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Previously : Mon night's Globex gapped up 40 points to 3900, then collapsed 57 points to 3843. Reversing up through midnight and Europe's opens extended to 3907 where another collapse fell to 3870. Tue's open dipped to 3872 and reacted up quickly to 3901, where yet another collapse fell to 3839 through the morning and noon hour to the 3815 bias-down signal. Flat-to-higher choppiness through the close overlapped 3839 up to 3849.
Overnight price points : Globex continued firming to the 3853 bias-up signal by midnight. Hovering there broke higher to the 3866 bias-up target through Europe's opens. Ranging sideways since then has reacted back down to 3853. Meanwhile, Gold surges to fresh highs while Crude extends yesterday's reversal another $2 (now down $5 from yesterday's high) and the 30yr long-bond extends yesterday's reversal to fresh recovery highs.
Catalysts : CRM + MSFT weaker, ISM potentially repeating Tue's PMI, JOLTS, FOMC Minutes.
Setups/Patterns : 3839 isolations break, Santa Claus Rally ending.
Their influences : Entering and exiting the noon hour under 3839 went out overlapping 3839 instead of closing decisively above it, which did not reject having exited two intraday timing windows under 3839. Gapping up to and/or through 3860 can qualify by proxy.
Premise : Overlapping 3839 through Tue's close had kept the door open to rejecting its break by gapping up today, and extending through 3860, preferably through the first 15 minutes. Overnight strength is interesting compared to Gold, Crude, and Bonds. That combination is unusual, but we'll assume the market knows something that we don't -- that is, if the open recovers 3860 to isolate yesterday's probes under 3839. Gaining traction through the open would put into play 3888-3891.
Alternative : Resuming the decline by failing to trigger bias-up should at least begin aggressively, if only to greet the post-open reports at lower levels before reacting poorly to them.
Levels : UP: 3860, 3888-91, 3911… DOWN: 3825, 3786.
Day Trading Opening Predictions - 11:04 AM
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Previously : Globex continued firming to the 3853 bias-up signal by midnight. Hovering there broke higher to the 3866 bias-up target through Europe's opens. Ranging sideways since then has reacted back down to 3853. Meanwhile, Gold surges to fresh highs while Crude extends yesterday's reversal another $2 (now down $5 from yesterday's high) and the 30yr long-bond extends yesterday's reversal to fresh recovery highs.
New price points : Already ratcheting higher pre-open extended to 3878 resistance post-open but dipped just in time to prevent exiting the first 15 minutes above overnight highs. That would have been bullish. Knee-jerk reaction to 10:00's econ headlines spiked down to 3853 and up to 3880, then back down again to pierce overnight lows to 3836. Both bias-up parameters were rejected but the 3866 bias-up target is being retested now.
Catalysts : CRM + MSFT weaker, ISM repeated Tue's PMI, JOLTS, FOMC Minutes.
Setups/Patterns : SYNTHETIC BIAS-DOWN... 3839 break rejected, Santa Claus Rally ending.
Their influences :
- Probes above both bias-up parameters reversed through 10:15 to put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters.
- Tue's successively lower probes under 3839 were ultimately rejected by proxy of gapping up to 3860 and extending through it during the first 15 minutes.
Triggers/Tactics : The synthetic bias-down targeting both bias-down parameters barely missed being invalidated by only overlapping the bias-up signal at 10:30 instead of recovering it. There not yet being a fresh low since triggering at 10:15, exiting this window back above its 3866 bias-up target would invalidate the synthetic bias-down anyway. It would be credible after having gapped up to and through 3860 to reject yesterday's breaks under 3839.
Alternative : Back under 3853 and confirmed under 3840 would resume downside momentum, and probably aggressively, maintaining the synthetic bias-down and its 3827 and 3810 objectives.
Levels : UP: 3860, 3888-91, 3911… DOWN: 3825, 3786.
Tonight's Market Predictions - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3899, targeting 3912.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3884, targeting 3869.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Stock Market Mid-Day Trends - 1:48 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels
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Previously : Globex's rally to 3870 was extended post-open to test and retest 3879, maintaining and extending the gap up above 3860 to recovery 3839 by proxy. But probing overnight highs was not maintained through the first 15 minutes, and 10:00's econ headlines reacted down to pierce overnight lows to 3836, triggering synthetic bias-down.
New price points : Rejecting 3839 by proxy and no fresh low since 10:15 made a buy signal compelling to at least test the 3866 bias-up target. Recovering it (up to 3896) into the noon hour rejected the bias-down. Impending FOMC Minutes has inhibited the rally, which instead corrected down to 3874.
Catalysts : CRM + MSFT weaker, ISM repeated Tue's PMI, JOLTS, FOMC Minutes.
Setups/Patterns : NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN... 5-Stage Correction.
Their influences : A 5-Stage pattern plateaud in stage-4, but its stage-5 correction stopped well short of its 3866 objective.
Triggers/Tactics : FOMC Minutes is being greeted optimistically, but not necessarily overly-optimistic. The overnight rally was also relatively optimistic. And this area around 3891 has been tested and retested already, so at least an obligatory rally through it wouldn't be surprising. The Gap& Pause setup's 3919 highs could be probed in the process.
Alternative : Rejecting the morning's synthetic bias-down had potential to 3893, which was met and held. A negative reaction to FOMC Minutes could retrace session lows, and then become a new downleg.
Levels : UP: 3860, 3888-91, 3911… DOWN: 3825, 3786.
Bias Summary - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Globex's rally extended post-open to gap up above 3860 and extend to 3880, isolating Tue's 3839 test by proxy. Probing overnight highs wasn't maintained throughout the first 15 minutes, enabling 10:00's econ headlines to react back down to overnight lows at 3836. But synthetic bias-down was rejected by exiting the bias window back above its 3866 bias-up target. Its 3896 high was reversed into and out of FOMC Minutes to 3850.
Catalysts : ADP, PMI, Fed speaker.
Setups/Patterns : 5-Stage Correction... No-bias trending.
Their influences : A 5-Stage pattern eventually fulfilled its stage-5 correction at 3866 on the way down to retracing stage-1s 3847 origin... Regardless of FOMC Minutes being the catalyst, the afternoon's 3884 bias-down signal broke lower during its no-bias window. The final hour's entry was recovered to touch the bias-down target, literally 1 tick and 1 minute too late to invalidate the no-bias trending. A retrace to 3884 becomes unfinished business above, already attacked to within 6 points.
Premise : FOMC Minutes was greeted optimistically, and reacted down to headlines that "Officials Agreed Rate Cuts Shouldn't Happen" this year. Seems bearish, but its recovery came within 2 points of where the headline hit -- so perhaps not that bearish, after all? The 3884 unfinished business was borderline, but it may help the recovery to resume. Trending up through Thu's open could finally break decisively through the 3891 area to the Gap & Pause setup's 3919 highs and higher.
Alternative : There's no bullish reason further delay rallying, and retesting Wed afternoon's 3848 low probably probes under the morning's 3837 low which jeopardizes 3839 again.
Levels : UP: 3860, 3888-91, 3911… DOWN: 3825, 3786.
Tomorrow's Market Predictions - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3884, targeting 3898.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3860, targeting 3848.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.